Gallup: Economic Confidence Improving - Americans more optimistic than any time in past two years.

jefferson_dem

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Tue Jan-05-10 01:13 PM
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Gallup: Economic Confidence Improving - Americans more optimistic than any time in past two years.

Edited on Tue Jan-05-10 01:14 PM by jefferson_dem

Gallup Economic Weekly: Economic Confidence Improving
Americans’ economic confidence improved to its best level in two years last week
by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans enter 2010 as optimistic about the economy as they have been at any time over the past two years. Still, perceptions of job-market conditions are about the same as they were both a month ago and a year ago. Consumers also continue to be cautious about their spending, with self-reported spending down 16% from the prior week and 18% from a year ago. The key question going forward is whether improving economic confidence will soon lead to increased consumer spending.

What Happened (Week Ending Jan. 3)

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Economic Confidence improved last week, matching its best weekly level of the past two years. Gallup's Economic Confidence Index was -20 -- an improvement of 6 points compared to the prior week, 8 points better than a month ago, and 31 points better than a year ago. This increase is owing to improved perceptions of the current state of the economy as well as its future direction. Americans' views of the country's economic prospects are much improved, with 43% saying the economy is "getting better" versus 39% the prior week and 38% a month ago. Fifty-one percent say the economy is "getting worse," compared to 55% the previous week. Consumer assessments of the current economy are also much improved, with 43% rating the economy "poor," compared to 47% the prior week. At the same time, 12% rated the economy "excellent" or "good" -- matching the previous week. Overall, Americans enter the new year with their most optimistic views of the U.S. economy since the recession began two years ago.
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Job Creation also improved last week, but U.S. workers' perceptions of job-market conditions remain similar to those of the past several months. Gallup's Job Creation Index was at +1 -- a sharp improvement from the -5 of the prior week and nearly matching the +2 of a month ago. Currently, 24% of employees say their companies are hiring while 23% say their companies are letting people go. These are essentially the same as the percentages of a month ago (24% hiring and 22% letting go) and a year ago (26% and 24%, respectively). While job-market conditions have stabilized over the past several months, Gallup's monitoring shows virtually no improvement in hiring -- an essential if the economy is going to grow in 2010.
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Consumer Spending fell last week, as self-reported daily spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $59 -- down 16% from the previous week and 18% from the same week a year ago. During the week ending Dec. 27, spending exceeded its year-ago comparable for the first and only time in 2009. This appears to have been part of a last-minute spending surge, as spending fell during the week ending Jan. 3, 2010. Throughout 2009, Gallup's weekly spending estimates were down significantly from 2008, likely representing a "new normal" era of consumer spending. In 2010, the weekly spending comparables of 2009 are much lower. As a result, consumer spending might be expected to match and even exceed last year's "new normal" spending comparisons in the year ahead.
-Jan. 3, 2010

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/124934/Gallup-Economic-Weekly-Economic-Confidence-Improving.aspx