Will we see significant losses in Congress later this year due to no Public Option, war, economy?

[Divine Discontent]

Just wondering what everyone thinks.

I don't think it's going to be a very pretty morning after election day with what is being done in DC & the lack of Democratic voters on off years, economic crisis for most people, and many liberals having a strong distaste for what we saw last year from Team Blue! Many people who go out and help organize feel burnt, a large amount of the politically active liberal community is not gung ho over the current Admin's policies, and speaking for myself, as a Gay person - I'm unimpressed on many levels.

People fought hard, including myself in school and at work, for rights of people of any color - I put my job on the line for someone who didn't look a thing like me after he was ALREADY gone. I didn't have to do that. They accused him of having a gun, he was fired and escorted out, I was called in to give my thoughts on the matter a month later, and stood up for him rather boldly in a meeting with home office people present listening to my shock at how they believed a person who was obsessed with this guy, just on her word, and he was rehired with a settlement to boot, but - why isn't my president fighting for my rights as fervently as I have for ALL people? I've had the cops called on me for helping a homeless lady bandage her leg, for crying out loud! Stand up for ALL people's rights or everyone who doesn't is shameful if they don't feel just a little bit of remorse for using ANY of them that ALL of us don't have!


Whether they be of a different faith than me (or none at all), or for women's rights, or whatever their situation is, I believe in equality - I just am very disappointed and know even the strongest backers of the president who got me to give up my hopes of Boxer, Feingold, Clark or Edwards being president, aren't so keen on the WH anymore, and 90% of the people I call 'friends' are Democrats, and none of them want to even talk about the policies because they're upset. To know we continue to SHAME noble and brave US military personnel by kicking them out of defending their country because they're Gay makes me sick!

I believe this whole mess spells a couple dozen or more seats lost in '10. I'd prefer the Democratic Party win 40 seats more so we'd have such a majority in the House & Senate that we could just ignore this centrist bullshit and enact true economic, health, and civil right equality for all people - the time is growing where the leaders of the party won't have the GLBT people to count on for votes unless things change.


Do you disagree? Vote & state why we're going to not lose much, I'll read it! Agree, vote!

[Meldread]

1. Yes and no. Yes, it's going to be brutal...

I think there is a greater than 50% chance we could lose control over the House, and Harry Reed could be knocked off in the Senate along with some others. Our "super majority" (ha, ha) in the Senate is going to be thinned, with a less than 25% chance of us losing the Senate as well.

A great deal can happen between now and the elections however. The key issue is the economy. If the economy gets worse, then the Democratic Party is going to be massacred. If the economy is doing better or even great then we could do WAY better than expected.

One of the key issues the Democratic Party will face is a lack of enthusiasm among their core supporters (us). The lack of the public option does not hurt them with the general public, but with us it translates into a reluctance to vote, an unwillingness to volunteer, and a unwillingness to donate money. The war is a non-issue over all because American's are mostly ignoring them now - we've come desensitized to war. It's just something that is going on, and since there is no shared sacrifice it will not factor into the decision making of most American voters. The economy will be the number one issue by far.

The Democratic Party is facing an uphill battle, in large part because they hold the White House. The party in power always takes the most hits as a general rule of thumb, and when we have the type of majorities in Congress that we currently see it is difficult to sustain them.

HOWEVER! And this is the big point that needs to be made, the American people are NOT embracing the Republican Party. They will vote for the Republican's because they are the only other option.

In all likelihood - especially if Republican win big - they will take this as a sign to keep doing what they've been doing. That the American people LIKE it. So we'll see them continue to do what they've been doing, and likely more compromise from Obama to cater to the Republicans in order to appease them.... his agenda will be halted. However, in over playing their hand, the Republican's make themselves vulnerable in 2012 likely ensuring that Obama wins a second term and either remains even or makes some small gains in Congress.

But every single prediction made here can easily change if the economy either gets worse or better.

[Divine Discontent]

3. loved reading your post, thank you for some interesting thoughts. yes, it's all open to the winds of

change.

[WT Fuheck]

2. Who is "we"?

If you mean the DNC, "we" will lose in the normal fashion of majority parties in a midterm election.

If you mean the DLC and their brothers the blue dogs and other DINOs, "we" will get the living shit kicked out of us.

[Divine Discontent]

4. that 2nd group deserves it now. I hope we get rid of them, then next time ('12) our liberal allies

will push hard for REAL Democrats to win back some of those seats.

Thanks!

[quiller4]

5. Your choices don't make sense-a few dozen is normal in the off year.

I think we'll probably lose 8-15 seats in the house. I think we'll see both losses and pick-ups in the Senate. Reid will keep his seat. Yes. He is down now in the polls but he has a treasury and one of the best ground games anywhere. He'll pull out another close one.

I think we'll also pick up a few house seats in the West to offset the losses in the South and Midwest.

[ItNerd4life]

6. I think it depends upon the Republicans

they don't have a unifying message. The only way they can push to increase their chances are:
1) Promise to get spending under control. Not be like Bush.
2) Push how the government has gotten too large and taken over too much private industry. Ford is doing great, GM is not. hmm, because of government control?

But I don't think the Republicans are smart enough so Democrats will lose seats, but we may keep simple majority in House and Senate.

[timeforpeace]

7. Who cares? It was worth it with all that was accomplished.

[totodeinhere]

8. Why should we care?

Because there still will be a lot of work to do after the 2010 elections, and if the GOP can get even one or two more seats in the Senate they will have a much easier time filibustering needed legislation. Heck, with 60 votes now we have trouble getting anything through given the Bluedogs like Nelson. Imagine what a headache it will be if we have even less votes next time.

[IndianaGreen]

9. Jobs, jobs, jobs

That's what will determine the outcome of the midterm elections.

[quaker bill]

10. You got it

If jobs are coming back and the market is heading up, we will roughly break even. If the recovery is a bit better than modest and sustained for several months before the election, we could even pick up a few seats.

However, if job losses continue, we will lose badly.

I think we will break even or a bit better. The small business I run on the side has me in touch with other business owners. They are seeing sales slowly recover and have been seeing this for several months now. My sales have improved as well. I think we are coming up from the bottom, with a way to go before things become normal again. My read of the tea leaves is that recovery is underway and we will be just fine for election 2010.