History is against Brown: there hasn't been a conservative Senator from MA in a long time

[andym]

No one as conservative as Brown has been elected to the Senate in MA in the modern political era. Even the Republicans such as Henry Cabot Lodge (left office in 1953), Leverett Saltonstall (retired in 1967) and Edmund Brooke (left office in 1979) were moderates of the kind not really present in the current Congress (perhaps Snowe of Maine comes closest). So, Brown should have great difficulty convincing MA voters that he will represent their interests.

It will be very interesting to see how well he does in the election, as MA is one of the most progressive states in the USA.

This election will tell a lot about the current strength of progressive movement in one of its traditional strongholds, as well as the power of the conservative movement.

Although some recent polls suggest he might do well, he would have to break a very strong historical trend against conservatism in MA to win.

[Cirque du So-What]

1. I hope you're right

as I've lived long enought to see practically all historical precedents broken.

[BeyondGeography]

2. Or you can throw ideology out the window and chalk it up to blind white rage and D-incompetency

Either way, the autopsy would be interesting. Hopefully, we can skip this exercise.

[Xipe Totec]

11. Obviously, those are the only two possible reasons

way to frame the debate...

[NJmaverick]

3. A victory for the GOP would be a huge morale booster for the right wingers

the teabaggers would be dancing in the street if they could win right in the progressive's backyard.

[pnwmom]

4. Yeah, but how many have been chosen by Cosmo as the sexist man of the year?

And had a nude photo spread?

:shrug:

[nykym]

5. Ya know

Had Martha posed nude it would have been such a scandal, but because it's a (and I use the term lightly) man its OK.
Bullshit!

[timeforpeace]

6. No worries. Don't Democrats greatly outnumber repukes in MA?

[Blaukraut]

7. D's outnumber R's 3 to 1, but I's outnumber D's

And the I's are going for Brown 69% to 36% according to Suffolk.

[timeforpeace]

8. And I's decide elections, right?

[Blaukraut]

10. Pretty much, and usually in favor of the Dem candidate

but Coakley sat on her lead, becoming almost invisible after the primary, while Brown was all over the place with ads, defining himself the way he wanted to be seen. If he wins, it's not any canary in the coalmine type of thing for the Dems elsewhere. The only thing that can be taken from a Brown victory is that Dems need to get their campaign message out louder than the teabaggers, match the passion, and never take votes for granted.

[Cha]

9. Let's hope the movtivation

and momentum is working for Martha Coakley to follow in Senator Ted Kennedy's Democratic Seat in Congress.

:patriot:~STAND WITH MARTHA~:patriot:
http://www.marthacoakley.com/

[ProgressOnTheMove]

12. Well given some polls I wouldn't get complacent it's an important race.

[NYC Democrat]

13. Thats why he is not running as one despite having a conservative record.

[quakerboy]

14. As much as it was against Owens as the recent NY-23?

[frazzled]

15. You don't know Massachusetts all that well

Teddy Kennedy was able to keep that seat for so long because he was Teddy Kennedy. He was (1) a Kennedy; and (2) an Irish Catholic.
And what about John Kerry? People thought he was Irish. Probably still do.

But there's a huge swath of people in Massachusetts who call themselves Democrats (because that's the tradition), but who are really very socially conservative. They don't vote by policy or ideology--they vote by tribe.

[andym]

16. Well I lived there for several years

But Massachusetts seemed to be quite varied, lots of well-defined communities, especially in the Boston area, like South Boston.

As for why Ted Kennedy did so well with the electorate, your points are well taken. However, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Martha Coakley Irish Catholic as well?

You may be right about social conservatives, but Brown is portraying himself as a social moderate.

[old mark]

17. That seems to be what Coakley thought, too...she didn't seem too concerned

about winning till last week.


mark