High voter turnout expected in MA-SEN contest, could approach 70% (Boston Herald).

[jefferson_dem]

If so, this would be great news ... for COAKLEY!

High voter turnout expected
By Jessica Fargen | Sunday, January 17, 2010

Turnout could hit as high as 70 percent Tuesday in the high-stakes U.S. Senate battle between Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley and GOP state Sen. Scott Brown, according to some local election officials.

Absentee ballot requests have increased - on par with levels ordinarily seen in a presidential election - some town clerks say. And town and city halls were buzzing last week with people voting and asking questions about registration in advance of the election to fill the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, said Theodora Eaton, president of the state’s city and town clerk’s association.

“I wasn’t anticipating the interest that has developed,” said Needham town clerk Eaton, who processed 1,000 absentee ballots and expects up to 70 percent turnout.

“We’ll see well over what was originally expected,” for turnout said Braintree town clerk Joseph F. Powers, attributing the high level of voter interest to TV ads and media attention.

Gerry Cuddyer, chairwoman of the board of election commissioners in Boston, processed 4,800 absentee ballots and has been flooded with calls from voters checking their registration.

“That would indicate to me that turnout may be higher than expected,” she said.

Turnout is crucial in the tight race, which also has the candidates facing the unusual challenge of a special January election after a holiday weekend.

On Election Day, Coakley will have workers in every state Senate district, “reaching out to their volunteers,” said spokeswoman Alex Zaroulis.

<SNIP>

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20100117high_voter_turnout_expected/srvc=home&position=3

[KingFlorez]

1. Lets hope this turns out to be true

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. That should help

[jpak]

3. This would seem good for Coakley as Dems outnumber repugs in Mass.

but then again - if the other 30% not voting are progressives that stay at home to punish the Bad Obama....




























:evilgrin:

[Spazito]

9. Well, if they stay home, they give the repubs a proxy vote...

which shows they are NOT progressives in ANY way, they are "real progressives" a euphemism now being used by third party advocates it seems, imo.

[jpak]

10. Yup!

:hi:

[mkultra]

16. Regressives

because that's what they create, is regression

[CTyankee]

17. The problem is that you have some registered Dems saying they'll vote for Brown.

So to say our sheer numbers of registered Dems won't mean much if enough of them vote for Brown on Tuesday.

I'm trying to keep positive, even with the bad feelings I am having. It is not a usual time, there is too much unrest and dissatisfaction because everyone expects Obama and the Dems to magically change things overnight. And they are being exploited by demogogues who know how to manipulate and lie to them.

[FVZA_Colonel]

22. How many really is another matter.

I can't imagine there are that many "Reagan Democrats" left up there, but there probably are some.

[CTyankee]

26. Hard to tell, but I think race may be playing a bigger role here than we would think.

I remember the days of Southie Bostonians and the antibusing racists very well. nOw this whole thing may have resurfaced in a different time to be sure. I just think the fact that a black man is our president enrages some people to the point of irrationality...

[FVZA_Colonel]

40. That is disconcerting.

Hopefully, there are not that many of them, but that's something we may just have to wait for and see.

[Bitwit1234]

4. The higher the turnout the better for democrats correct.

Didn't the same almost 90% are dems. Even if some dems vote for brown there should be enough who vote democratic.

[Perky]

46. Absolutely True. Brown's froces are engaged but they are not legion

We win with a huge turnout because the larger the overall percentage that comes out, the smaller the piece of the enlarged pie he gets.

[Mass]

5. Not sure who high turnout will favor. I dont think it is clear cut in MA.

[hlthe2b]

6. Good weather, hopefully.....

The RW is motivated, so we have to have good turnout...

[jefferson_dem]

7. Ruh Roh...

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon.

http://www.boston.com/weather/extended

[HughMoran]

15. That's normal weather here - at least it won't be cold

[Jennicut]

21. LOL. Yeah, snow is pretty much a weekly occurance in New England during Jan/Feb

I was just happy it got up to 40 degrees in Northern CT the other day.

[HughMoran]

23. Was 48 up here in NH Friday

Took my summer car out for a ride - niiiice!

[karynnj]

8. This means that all the likely voter and in the case of Rasmussen "very likely"

voter models need to be, at least mentally rethought. All showed Coakley doing better for "registered voter" than for "likely voter - and this information, if accurate means that the result will be somewhere between their likely voter estimate that assumed a low turn out and the registered voters estimate.

[flamingdem]

11. Good news nt

[bigdarryl]

12. Could also be bad news in that the stupid tea party activist have gotten people worked up in a frenz...

[flamingdem]

13. arrrg. This is nervewracking nt

[HughMoran]

14. I hope so. I know I'll be calling my family and friends hourly to ensure they vote

It takes a little effort for my aging parents to get to the polls, but you can bet they will be there - or I'll disown them ;)

[CTyankee]

18. My daughter is near frantic. She has been on her cell phone, Twitter, texting,

and on Facebook exhorting anybody and everybody she thinks is a good Dem to vote for Coakley.

[HughMoran]

20. Good - sounds like the fire is lit - and just in the nick of time

Lets hope we can turn this ship back in the right (left ;)) direction!

[jenmito]

19. I sure HOPE high turnout helps Coakley. I saw the talking heads saying that it may help

Brown in this case since Repubs. are so motivated...

[Sebastian Doyle]

24. As we saw in 2008, high turnout is the only thing that trumps electro-fraud

Massachusetts is supposedly a Democratic state (despite having Weld and Mittens as governors in recent years) so high turnout should favor Coakley.

[jenmito]

27. Yes, but in '08 the DEMS. were energized which is why we won by so much.

Now, the Repubs. and teabaggers are energized. I HOPE the high turnout is made up of Dems. \

[bigdarryl]

25. of coarse the media heads are going to say that they want this idiot to win that

has apparently become blatantly obvious

[jenmito]

28. Very true. n/t

[BayAreaDem]

29. My first post and some analysis

Mass Total registered voters 4.1 million

2008 Election: 3 million votes ( 73% turnout )

Obama 62% ( 1.9 mil votes) Vs McCain ( 1.1 mil Votes)

2009 Dem Primary ( 650,000 votes, 22% of 2008 votes )

Registered voters Distribution ( 38% Dems, 11% Repubs, 51% Independents )

Assumptions:
1. Atleast 57% (650k primary voters) of total 38% Dems will vote 95% in favor of Coakly.

2. Most Repubs and M voters will vote again (overly excited, lets assume 75% will vote again) in favor of Brown ( 1.1 M + 30k from above ) = 1.13Mil * 0.75 = 850k, I think this is here, Brown pulled ahead, Coakly assumed this will be low turnout and Brown will not pull more than 50% of McCain voters.

3. All remaining Mccain voters will never vote for Coakly.

4. I donot have distribution model of 2008 votes (Dems vs Indies vs Repubs ), assuming it matches or is near 38,11,51

Remaining voters: 3Mil (2008 election) - 1.1Mil (Mccain voters) - 0.65Mil (2009 primary)= 1.25Mil

Coakly needs atleast 233k votes to beat Brown, that is out of remaining 1.25M = 19% more voters or 7.8% in comparison to 2008 election. If Coakly can pull Dem's out of dens that should be enough to pull her ahead.

Total number of expected votes: 1.7Mil ( 58% of 2008 votes )

If the turnout goes beyond 58% turnout, there is no way brown can win unless he take votes more than 50%, which is impossible as they are all obama voters and Obama approval rating is in mid 50's in the state.

[BayAreaDem]

30. btw bostonglobe is running a online survey "will you vote" with 58% decided.

This needs to go above in order for Coakly's chances.

[Teaser]

31. online survey...

not really telling us much

[BayAreaDem]

33. You are right...

58% online survey is not great, i would have assumed this lot higher for this case.
In General online trends sway +-20% of online survey... but who knows...in this case. I guess polling models are expecting around 50-55% polling vs 2008 election and thats not good, considering repubs are all fired up. Anything more improves Coakly's chances dramatically. Few percent will put her right at top.

[karynnj]

36. Online polling is completely unscientific and can not be made scientific

There is self selection, no control over who votes (ie I can vote either way - though I am a registered NJ voter), little control over how many times they vote.

The only reason it makes sense to respond is the media that hosts them, gives the results - and that in itself hurts.

(Forgot to say - Welcome to DU. You are right that higher turnout has to help the side that is modeled as not as interested in voting - the other side may be saturated.)

[BayAreaDem]

37. Thanks! DU is great progressive community..

[quiller4]

42. Both the Globe and Herald are predicting voter turnout over 60%.

[Betty Karlson]

47. Two problems:

According to a recent poll (Suffolk I believe) up to 17 % of the democrats will vote for Brown. Your calculations don't include the effect of the libertarian candidate either. You may have to adjust your prognosis a bit.

[Peacetrain]

32. Hi turnout helps the Democrats!!! That is very heartening to read.. NT

[Phx_Dem]

34. Please, Massachusetteans (is that a word?), do not let

Ted Kennedy's seat be turned over to a Republican. And yes, it IS Ted Kennedy's seat until someone else wins it.

[CTyankee]

43. It's actually "Bay staters." Easier to say, right? nt

[Top Cat]

35. I hope the Dems & Indies don't disappoint the country ...

This is to important to let another party take a seat that has been held for over 40 years by our party... The consequence will be shattering if Mass. doe's not protect the seat that Teddy held for so many years.

[proud patriot]

38. Excellent News ... Everybody needs to vote !

:woohoo:

[SKKY]

39. Something tells me that this won't work out in favor of Coakley...

...I think we may have taught the Tea Party something about voter mobilization.

[quiller4]

41. All of the polling done so far shows Coakley doing better with

likely voters than very likely voters (the 6s throgh 10s instead of just the 9s and 10s on a 1-10 scale)and even in the PPP poll where Brown leads among very likely voters, Coakley leads when the the universe is all voters.

[SKKY]

45. I hope you're right...

...because I don't know if people have a full sense of just how important this race really is. Passing any meaningful health care reform depends on this.

[Betty Karlson]

48. That, and any other important legislation.

The GOP is still the party of NO, after all. No matter what the subject.

[depakid]

44. If that's the case, it may turn out to be a much louder wake up call

for the party than anyone anticipated.

[glitch]

49. Traditionally higher turnout means a Dem win.

Let's hope tradition holds true.