Regarding The PPP poll: The closer it looks the more enthused DEMS will become

[Perky]

[MadBadger]

1. Another poll came out today showing Brown with a ten point lead

According to polls, its not getting any closer.

[Perky]

2. Care to source that poll?

[MadBadger]

4. Sure, here it is.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ma_brown_51_coakley_41_insidem.php

I dont know the pollster's record, but I saw it on Pollster today.

[WeDidIt]

20. Came out yesterday. 21% liberal, 26% conservative

Their base working assumption is that Massachusetts has 5% more conservatives than Democrats.

It's using the same model as the Pajamas Media poll released last week that had Brown up 15 points.

[MadBadger]

24. Liberal doesnt equal democrat.

DOnt confuse the two. There are plenty of dems who consider themselves moderates or conservatives.

[Mass]

23. Never heard of them.

[Tippy]

27. I follow pollster.com some what.... If you notice

That poll was taken on 1/15/20.......before Cokeleys numbers started to move
also has 4.1% margin of error.....and it was an Automated phone, poll....So it is not as bad as it first sounded.

[hlthe2b]

3. I sure as hell hope so...

How can it be that the "real" Brown is not getting across? I am just damned appalled.

[Perky]

6. That is an oulier for sure

565 on a robopoll is piss poor sample
Robopolls need to sample twice as many as a live person.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Speaking of robocalls, Rasmussen should be coming out with one more poll...

Tomorrow perhaps. I think KOS will publish one also. If either shows Brown better than +5, we got problems.

[timeforpeace]

5. The closer it looks? He's widening his lead.

[Perky]

8. No he's not

[MadBadger]

11. Have we seen any polls that show it getting closer?

[HughMoran]

9. And...?

I don't get your one-liners at times.

[KingFlorez]

10. And it is within the margin of error

So it could actually be a statistical tie. And of course, the poll can't take into account how big turnout will be and turnout could flip things completely.

[SpencerS]

12. But

He hasn't widened his lead. It's still the same 4-point margin, as the last poll. Plus, Joe Kennedy is not included in the poll. It's large turnout from democratic voters that will help Martha Coakley win. And the polls can't predict turnout, especially in a special election.

[leftygolfer]

13. I'm more enthused for this than i was in 2008

We NEED this win. We will get it.

[SpencerS]

14. My mistake...

He is up by five. But my argument remains the same.

[krawhitham]

15. PPP had Hoffman up 17 points 2 days before election

he lost by 4.1%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/house/ny/new_york_23rd_district_special_election-1119.html

[DFLforever]

16. That's interesting.

I had forgotten about those polls.

[Jennicut]

19. It was because that poll was taken before Dede Scozzafava pulled out

or it was just in the middle of it. No one thought all her support would go to Owens but most of it did.
With the PPP poll in Mass, I think it may be inaccurate if the pollsters did not screen the most likely voters in the right way. It all comes down to turnout.

[krawhitham]

25. Scozzafava pulled out Oct 31st

the poll was on Oct 31st - Nov 1st

[Jennicut]

26. So it was after she pulled out, huh? They really miscalculated then.

[argonaut]

17. I can't even begin to express how shellshocked I am by this race.

I mean... Jesus.

[watercolors]

18. I so hope you are right!

nt

[fugop]

21. Approval ratings

The thing that blows my mind about this poll is that they've got voters approving of Obama only something like 44 percent-43 percent. That seems way off for Mass. No other polls indicate his approval that low.

[leftygolfer]

22. Total BS media spin

Obama is fine in Massachusetts. Coakley will win if we do OUR job and GOTV