MA voters planning to turn out oppose HCR 48% to 40%.

[dkf]

Martha Coakley 46% (47)
Scott Brown 51% (48)

Findings from Tom Jensen:

-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.

-Brown's voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley's. 80% of his say they're 'very excited' about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment. But the likely electorate now reports having voted for Barack Obama by 19 points, up from 16 a week ago, and a much smaller drop from his 26 point victory in the state than was seen in Virginia.

-Those planning to turn out continue to be skeptical of the Democratic health care plan, saying they oppose it by a 48/40 margin.

-Coakley's favorability dropped from 50% to 44% after a week filled with perceived missteps. Brown's negatives went up a lot but his positives only actually went from 57% to 56%, an indication that attacks against him may have been most effective with voters already planning to support Coakley but ambivalent toward Brown.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/1/18/826263/-MA-Sen:-PPP-Shows-Brown-Up-By-Five

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Well the good news is that if these numbers hold, the race should be called rather quickly.

Which means we won't have a nail biter like in the past.

[dkf]

3. Ugh. I can't believe this is happening.

I mean I kind of thought it would, but it still is awful to contemplate.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Don't worry. PPP had Hoffman winning the NY seat a few months ago by 17.

It's not a slamdunk. I still think she wins.

[Clio the Leo]

8. This thing is going to go on for weeks....

.... mark my words.

[Bitwit1234]

2. The won't stop the Health Care Bill

The Senate is going to pass it with the majority vote. They are going to go with rejecting the 60 vote. So if the people of Mass. want to put an a**hole in office to cut their nose off to spite their face, it is not going to do them any good. Health Care is important. But there are more things congress has to do and putting the crud with the appropriate name of brown in office would only hurt the whole damn country.

[dkf]

5. If they don't need 60 votes I hope they improve it.

[Mass]

6. Is that the same poll where they ask people whether ACORN was going to steal the election?

and where they found a huge majority approving Kennedy's work, a plurality of people wanting to continue Kennedy's legacy, but still Brown winning.

Not saying I think the poll's result is wrong (or right). There is no way to know who will vote tomorrow and the weather is bad. But this poll itself looks so weird.

[dkf]

7. The Acorn question really asks "how batshit crazy are you".

Its nice to know. Also, who really wants to say they want to destroy Kennedy's legacy. That is a bad poll question because it demands more truthfulness than most are willing to give.

[joeglow3]

9. This will be an interesting day

Weather will disproportionately affect the poorer individuals, who vote Democrat by a much higher margin. Additionally, I with all the media trying to get Brown elected, it could have one of 2 impacts: Either discourage people from voting (thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy) or making more people realize the importance of voting. I am certainly hoping Obama helped the people realize that option number 2 is the course needed.

[Clio the Leo]

10. But does that mean they'll vote against Coakley?...

.... if we presume that some of that 48% is unhappy with the bill because it's not as progressive as they'd like, are they upset enough to vote for someone who's not only opposed to progressive health care reform but progressive legislation PERIOD.

If the response of those here on DU who've been the most opposed to the HCR bill lately is any indication, I'd say no.