538's Nate Silver says Mass Senate race is still a 'TOSS-UP.'

[flpoljunkie]

1.18.2010

Massachusetts Model Mayhem

by Nate Silver @ 12:50 AM

Here is what my "traditional" Senate model now says, updated with new polling from PPP and the potentially dubious firm known as CrossTarget.

Scenario 1:



Under its original assumptions, the model now projects a very slight Brown edge, 49.3-48.7, which maps to a 55 percent chance of winning. Earlier today, it had given Coakley a 57 percent chance of winning. However, because the odds are under 60 percent, we still call this race a "toss-up" per our nomenclature, as we did before.

more...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/massachusetts-model-mayhem.html

[tekisui]

1. It is all turnout, now. GOTV!