What the hell is up with the massive campaign to claim Coakley is going to lose?

[ProSense]

Bogus polls, the media making half-baked predictions and people making up scenarios when the election hasn't even happened yet.

Everything points to a close elections. Yet some people are buying into bogus polls that show a blowout.

[FrenchieCat]

1. really odd, isn't it?

[dkf]

2. I'm sure it's the liberal media

:sarcasm:

[Ken Burch]

3. We do have a lot of right-wing infiltrators here.

There the ones spreading the "Coakley is toast" meme.

They know that there candidates best hope is to demoralize our side.

[AlinPA]

23. In the last month, I sense that DU has a lot of right-wingers in here.

[butterfly77]

34. Don't you mean ...

6 or 7 months..

[AlinPA]

37. I've really noticed it lately, but I'd believe it was a lot sooner than a month.

[butterfly77]

38. They started in the middle of last year..

during the healthcare debate but,they have been going full force for the last few months.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. I don't know if they're bogus polls.

Even our own polls (Research 2000) shows a Brown surge.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Same with PPP.

Face it - it's looking bad.

[ProSense]

There was a surge when Romney

ran against Kennedy.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. No...not this late.

There was a surge early in the campaign. However, by October, Kennedy built a nice lead and was leading in the polls comfortably.

http://www.nytimes.com/1994/10/27/us/the-1994-campaign-massachusetts-kennedy-and-romney-look-to-round-2.html

That from late October. Kennedy led Romney 52-33.

Unless there was another poll released before the election that showed the race close. If so, please provide a link. I'll hang onto any good news!

[ProSense]

19. It may not have been this late, but

the noise and rampant speculaton that she is going to lose are really ridiculous. Brown could lose. Coakley is not an incumbent.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. I think what scares me the most is that she has no clear momentum.

I've been trying to find some under the surface vote that just isn't there.

I feel like I did the days leading up to the Iowa Caucus in 2004. I supported Dean and I remember how the polls shifted quite dramatically and rather quickly like they have now. I was told by some Dean supporters on a forum we had created that I shouldn't worry about it. That his GOTV effort was too good for him to lose.

But I worried. I worried because there just wasn't a hidden vote for him. The polls suggested Kerry & Edwards were surging and Dean falling to third.

They were right.

It's easy to dismiss one poll. It's easy to dismiss two or even three. But now every single poll released in the last three days shows Brown leading. Not one shows Coakley with the lead. The margin is different, of course, and one does have it a tie (though that's a liberal poll - Research 20000 - and they had Coakley with a much larger lead in their last one), but it's clear that something is happening up there and it ain't good.

My hope prior to tonight was that Brown's support tapped out. I thought this to be true when PPP leaked some tidbits about its poll showing a tie, even though their last one showed Brown up. Then they release their poll last night and he's up by an even bigger margin than they had him before. Again, not a good sign.

All this points to a surge and a surge this late in the game generally leads a candidate to victory. It's what won the presidency for Reagan in 1980 and I think it's playing out here.

Hopefully I'm wrong. I'd love to be wrong. But this doesn't feel right.

I am waiting for the final Rasmussen poll, though. They had Coakley up two last week and I'm hoping they'll have her up or show a tie. If that's the case, I'll feel better.

[ProSense]

26. A lot of them are rushed and

are producing strange results. A couple of these polls had Obama's approval in the low to mid 40s. That's absurd.

The PPP poll showed people wanting to preserve Kennedy's legacy...with a teabagger?

[Drunken Irishman]

27. I do have some doubts about the PPP poll.

Specifically the fact Pres. Obama's approval rating is +1.

Then again, it is his approval among likely voters. And if Democrats aren't voting, that would make sense. It's going to be an electorate dominated by Republicans and right-leaning indies if Dems stay home.

Let me make one thing clear - I do not think Coakley will lose because Democrats are going to turn out in droves for Brown. I am thinking she'll lose because Democrats won't turn out.

Now how to get them to turn out. And will they? If they do, then maybe she can win.

[karynnj]

50. I think that every person who could influence Democrats in MA to come out has tried

Obama, Bill Clinton, Vicki Kennedy and Kerry have all made the strongest cases they could. Between their appearances, emails and their help fund raising, I suspect if there was any chance that they could be brought out these leaders have done what they could.

Not to mention that all the MA people here are speaking of getting plenty of get out the vote calls. Promising chocolate chip cookies for all at the polling place might work, but I doubt it would be allowed - and they would have to give them to all.

[demwing]

53. What do you base this on?

Where's your evidence that shows they are rushed?

[karynnj]

48. Good post

It really does no one any good to declare polls good or bad depending on the results. Here, it is very clear that Brown has a good chance of winning.

Here, unlike Iowa, I think there is a a source of voters. Not necessarily a group missed, but the fact that all the polls have used a likely voter model that assumes relatively low turnout. Moreover, it predicts a very low turnout of the voters for Coakley and a much higher turnout for Brown. That may well happen or the fact that it has become a huge national story, Obama Came, Clinton came, Kerry has been out to at least 3 rallies, even though he had hip surgery 2 weeks ago. Obama, Vicki Kennedy, Kerry, have all sent emails trying to GOTV and make the case for Coakley. All this has been mostly in the last half a week! The "missed voters" could be that the likely voter model needs recalibration.

Another possible real source of missed voters are the college kids. Many went back last week or this week. In NJ, everyone on Obama's list got an email asking us to vote in the Governor's race, I assume the same will be done here.

But, I am prepared to want to ignore the TV tomorrow (as I did in 2004 on an extremely sad day that had started so well) The media has really hyped Brown as the winner. The timing of this election really was tricky with the holidays there.

[OneTenthofOnePercent]

5. Anticipoutrage™

Anicipating the Outrage.
Some people live to overreact and get all worked up.

[dionysus]

32. oooh, nice one!

:thumbsup:

[Recursion]

7. Look. This pisses people off, but I've been phonebanking, and this is close.

I'm not a downer or a purist trying to punish moderate Democrats. This is going to be tough.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I hope you're right...

I was optimistic until two polls released today showed Brown's lead widening.

Even Nate Silver has moved it from toss-up to Brown's corner.

[KingFlorez]

8. Don't buy into the hype

This will not turn out how some people think it will.

[livetohike]

9. The media and others are in love with drama so this

is a big story for them. If the facts don't suit their "referendum on Obama" agenda, then they will make something up that does.

[RoyGBiv]

10. I don't think it's a mystery ...

If she loses, various contingents will use the loss as a repudiation of Obama's administration. They see it as a head start on what they are planning for November when, as is typical, the ruling party loses seats.

[freddie mertz]

12. I think it is because it is such a SURPRISE.

Nobody expected anything like this a few weeks ago.

Now it is the lead story in all the media, and everyone is trying to spin it and predict what will happen.

It's pretty standard media procedure these days... I suggest NOT WATCHING THE CABLE TONIGHT.

[Aramchek]

13. it is an all out media assault on the group mind

if they lie to us big enough,
some might start to believe it, and that affects what is possible, in quantum terms

[Greybnk48]

14. Setting the stage for a Diebold theft??

[Botany]

15. because diebold & sequoia are doing this election

Gotta have your cover story ready.

Massachusetts is the most liberal state in the country ... the cover story will be;
people are upset w/ Obama and his health care plan and the liberals stayed home
this election.

The Fix is in.



BTW Washington Post August 2008 Diebold machines were programmed to dump votes in "heavy traffic" districts
aka Democratic votes.

[alittlelark]

16. Diebold is 'counting' the votes - they need it to seem close.

[Blaukraut]

18. MSNBC has been nailing Coakley's coffin shut all day

When they weren't pimping the Coakley Shilling gaffe, that is. Andrea Mitchell was positively orgasmic. I felt like reaching into the TV and punching her in her smug, ugly mug.

[freddie mertz]

24. Take a break from the cable news. Watch "24" or something instead...

More relaxing.

[O is 44]

20. The constant spitter just

spent his whole first segment trashing Coakley regarding the stupid Curt Shilling (sp?) remark, who cares, and some other remark she made about catholic workers. I heard nothing negative on the other guy. Of course the tool Chuck Todd was just as giddy anticipating a Dem loss. These people are shameless. Oh, boy they are using the right wing rag politico poll.

[Blue Owl]

22. The faint smell of turd blossom is in the air...

Need I say more?

[Shrek]

25. What makes you think the polls are bogus?

Intrade is predicting a 70% chance of a Brown victory, and I doubt the participants are uniformly partisan since there is real money to be gained or lost.

[freddie mertz]

29. The polls all tell the same story. And it is bad.

Momentum seems to be with the pukeboy.

I am trying to brace for the worst.

[butterfly77]

28. The whole point is to say...

that the President is losing and the country has all of a sudden are worried about spending and the deficit when they never gave a damn and most people don't know what in the hell a deficit is.

I heard Tweety and Chuck Todd saying the President went down to Mass and he is losing as though he is running for the office himself..Tweety kept saying that this is a referendum on Obama.

[O is 44]

30. Yes I agree that is their whole point...

T.V. will be unbearable to watch tomorrow if they get their wish.

[progressoid]

31. Uh, well, that's what the media does.

[O is 44]

33. Did they do this when Bush

was in office? I was not political back then so I have no idea, but would love to know.

[Blaukraut]

44. Yes. I still remember Matthews like it was yesterday. He was

horrible, especially during the recount. He tore down Al Gore on a daily basis for the entire month this whole thing was going on.

[karynnj]

51. Yes and no

They did when Jeffords changed to caucus with us, but that was pre 911. Then there was a long period when the country went to the right. 2002 was awful and the Republicans gained seats including Cleland's. (In fact, 2002 and 2004 were such tough years for Democratic Senators, that it is no surprise that they lost many last year - as they had many weak freshmen. This year will be tough, but every Senator up (except those that are up because they were appointed, survided in 2004 - so they should be a pretty strong group.)

But in 2005, McGreevey won in NJ and Warner in VA - both taking seats that Republicans had held. There was no talk of a Democratic resurgence. But, our wins in 2006 were cast as just that.

[Born_A_Truman]

35. Eeyore!

They haven't got Brains, any of them, only grey fluff that's blown into their heads by mistake, and they don't Think.

Eeyore

[drm604]

36. A couple of possibilities.

• They could be trying to discourage Coakley supporters from voting.
  
• They could be setting us up for an election theft.

Anyone know if there are exit polls being done and if so, by who?

[Cha]

39. Same ol same ol corporate Bullshit, Pro.

[Phx_Dem]

40. The media doesn't wait for voters to decide, they do it themselves

based on some polls. They've just about convinced me that Brown is going to win. I wonder how many Coakley voters in Mass they've convinced not to bother voting?

[Ildem09]

41. She has royally Rogered the Boogley

she ran a campaign that was unimpressive she took MA voters for granted. something no new englander likes.

[O is 44]

42. So does this mean your state

deserves a right winger? I just don't get it, voting against your own interest just to prove a stupid point.

[Recursion]

52. This means people vote for you if you ask them to. And Coakley didn't. NT

[K8-EEE]

43. It's the "liberal media" NOT.....

When she wins they will claim it was expected anyway but she should have won by a lot more.

[struggle4progress]

45. Old tactic: "It's hopeless! It's a done deal! Don't bother! You can't win! Give up!"

I've seen this game played by the other side in lots of political fights. It's easier for them if we just slink away instead of trying to win

[Gman2]

46. Other than fraud, it will come down to how many brave the weather.

[Clio the Leo]

47. Oh we WANT those polls to be bogus....

.... but I trust Nate Silver more than I trust any other wonk ... and if he says it's a toss up with it LEANING in Brown's direction, I'm not going to rest on false hope.

[Top Cat]

49. Every Poll i've seen today has the same predicition...

I am going to have faith the the people of Mass. will not let Teddy's seat go to Brown and his cronies.

[frazzled]

54. While I hope for a miracle ...

I don't think we can put our heads in the sand and believe every poll is wrong. Some, of course, are wronger than others.

My husband and I made 75 phone calls to Taunton and Bellingham today from the Obama for America office in Chicago. It was, to tell the truth, depressing. Considering the lists we were working from consisted only of people who had voted for Obama last November ... I didn't get enough people willing to commit to vote for her, and I got a fair number of Browns and hangups. Not a good sign the night before an election.

If she pulls this off at all (and I'm not so hopeful), it's going to be by a razor thin margin. I feel so depressed.

I'm sorry. She was just a crappy candidate I think. She would be a fine senator. But she was a crappy candidate.

[Kdillard]

55. That sucks but at least you tried.

[Hekate]

56. Eh, bogus polls, real trolls.

It just rhymes.

Hekate

[thelordofhell]

57. So that when Coakely wins, they can drag it through the mud

just like they did with Franken to keep him out for months.

[demwing]

58. It wasn't half baked - you just didn't want to see it

The polls were right on, the predictions right on the scenarios accurate.

You just don't want to hear what Massachusetts is saying.