Basically, folks, this is going to come down to one thing.

[Drunken Irishman]

And it's a no-brainer, obviously.

Voter turnout. If Democrats turnout, Cloakley wins. If they stay home, she loses.

It's not like Democrats are going to be turning out in droves to support Brown. His support will be from right-leaning indies, some disenfranchised Democrats (though not a helluva lot) and most likely every Republican in that state.

This is why the party occupying the White House generally loses seats in the mid-term elections. Their base isn't as fired up because they feel more comfortable knowing they're in power at the highest level - while the opposition feels the need to handicap the sitting party and that makes them far more fired up.

It was what got the Democrats the House & Senate in 2006.

It might be what gets Brown Kennedy's senate seat.

Massachusetts isn't going conservative. It isn't going to become a swing state. We just need to light a fire under the asses of voters there and if we do that - in the next 24 hours - we'll win.

So if you have nothing to do today, please phone bank for her. You can do so http://my.barackobama.com/page/votercontact/login?requested=/page/votercontact/make_calls%3Fcampaign_id%3Dfnr6">here.

[WeDidIt]

1. Watch percentages

Less than about 58% turnout, Brown wins.

58%-62% turnout, too close to call.

62% + turnout Coakley wins.

70% was predicted by the state offices handling the election. If that's the case it'll be a Coakley blowout.

[liberalpragmatist]

5. 70% would be completely ahistorical

I really hope we get that. But seriously, 70% in a special election is extremely unlikely. I wish we didn't have to rely on that.

Hopefully the attention this race is getting really will get voters to the polls.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

2. Insider Advantage has 24% of Dems voting for Brown.

And a couple of people on DU have earned their tombstones for gleefully hoping Brown wins.

So who the hell knows...

[WeDidIt]

3. Insider Advantage always has a Republican tilt

It is a Republican operation, so that's understandable.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

6. why would Dems want to vote for a right winger? Fools?

[jayton]

16. maybe not fools but...

I would think the reason why democrats in Mass. might vote for a republicon is because they do not want this healthcare bill to go through. They already have decent healthcare in Mass.

[namahage]

23. If they think that's all that won't go through, then they truly are fools. N/T

[Rosa Luxemburg]

24. blinkered

[Drunken Irishman]

9. I would be shocked if Brown got 24% of the Democratic vote.

Not even Reagan could pull in 24% of the Democratic vote in his landslide 1984 election there.

Plus, Insider Advantage is a right-wing poll.

[Mass]

18. Insider Advantage has also Brown winning young people, hispanic, and women.

Something tells me that this is not correct. I would not spend too much time one their internals.

[Donnachaidh]

19. Insider Advantage is owned by a Newt Gingrich buddy

I think that pretty much proves that they skew to the right. :shrug:

[MannyGoldstein]

4. Fire Rahm, Larry, and Timmy Today and Coakley Will Win

Otherwise it will be tougher.

[DFLforever]

7. That makes a lot of sense

The President should revamp his cabinet because Mass Dems blew their Senate seat.:eyes:

[MannyGoldstein]

11. Coakley, Corzine, and Deeds Are Just Bad Campaigners, Yes?

And so were most Dems who ran for national office from the time the DLC took over the Party until Dean temporarily took it back.

:sarcasm:

[DFLforever]

21. I've read here that Corzine wasn't a good governor.

And that Coakley just recently started to campaign after losing a 30 pt lead. Was Corzine ever much ahead in NJ? It seemed to me he trailed from early in the race. I know little about Deeds and VA except hearing he lead briefly following his primary.
So you think personality and performance don't much affect elections? and politics isn't local?

I wouldn't be so eager for Geithner's departure. He could be replaced by Corzine. The Treasery Secretary is usually a player, isn't he?

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

26. Deeds tried to out Republican the Republican

He really did. He offered NOTHING to a Dem, Ind or Liberal voter. He volunteered that he would opt-out of healthcare when that stuff was being thrown about. The only thing that could have suppressed Democratic turnout more than he did would be . . . can't come up with anything. Dems stayed home. I didn't, I dragged myself to the polls much more on behalf of the down ticket Dems than him.

I don't think the Virginia Governorship was more emblematic of anything more than we had a crappy candidate who has already lost to McDonnell in a head to head. We had a spoiler in the primary (McAuliffe)who edged out the better candidate - Moran.

[MannyGoldstein]

14. Or The Fed Could Cap Credit Card Rates At 5%

That would work, too. Show the working class that they're loved.

[grytpype]

8. I don't mean to discourage anyone from helping Coakley

But the polls are just horrible for her. Big Dem turnout might not be enough. GOTV campaigns are worth a couple of percent, but she's down by way more than that.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. The consensus does not suggest this.

There is one or two polls that show Brown leading by a wide margin. Most have it within the MOE and an average of each poll has it a couple points in his favor.

[grytpype]

13. OK, I hope you're right.

[ProgressOnTheMove]

12. Yep that easy really, someone said it's more a high independent vote ...

When calling if you can highlight how Brown has voted over 90 percent with his party at state level that will show he isn't independent. Also how Coakley has fought against big insurance as an AG clearly a bg selling point for any candidate right now.

[Ian David]

15. !!!! NEW RULE !!!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7498975

[intheflow]

17. I haven't been following this closely, but my son in Springfield

called me up freaking out about this election. So now I'm paying attention, because my son is fairly apolitical. Your point was exactly my son's point: we need to get voters out this election. K&R

[HowHasItComeToThis]

20. THE REPUBLIERS ARE VERYWHERE

[depakid]

22. If the polling numbers are to be believed (a BIG if) then it looks like a lot of Dems

a saying that they'll vote for Brown.

Of course saying it and doing it are two different things.

Maybe a phone call would help convince some not to.

[Clio the Leo]

25. We were never going to keep the 60 seat number anyway....

.... the only difference is that we may lose it 10 months earlier than we'd expected.

But if losing Ted Kennedy's seat (screw you Scott Brown!) lights a fire under the Demcoratic party machine off-setting another loss in November ... or HOLDING seats that we might have otherwise lost ... then it will be only a small price to pay.