Nate Silver on what the WH's next Move May Be.

[Clio the Leo]

White House Readies Gamble On High-Speed Ping-Pong
by Nate Silver

Here's an emerging bit of conventional wisdom that I have reason to believe is accurate:

The White House's announcement yesterday that it will schedule its State of the Union address for next Wednesday, January 27th, an earlier date than most insiders expected, is surely not coincidental and reflects a desire to pressure the House into voting for the Senate's version of the health care bill almost immediately, assuming that Scott Brown defeats Martha Coakley in Massachusetts tonight.

The pitch that the White House and Nancy Pelosi will make to the Democratic members of the House is a difficult one and will need to be extremely well executed, but is likely to consist of one or more of the following arguments:

(1) President Obama can deliver a home-run speech when he needs to and will deliver a home-run speech on January 27th that features a sharp pivot toward more populist economic policies, such as a bank tax, financial regulation, and a jobs bill.

(2) The White House already got the 60th vote that was going to be the most difficult to get: Ben Nelson's to push them past the finish line on health care. On most other issues, they may not have had 59 votes anyway. In other cases still, the White House will be more amenable to using reconciliation, which was designed for precisely the sort of fiscal measures they will be considering in the spring and summer. Scott Brown's vote may not be in play in the immediate term, but could be in the medium term, essentially leaving the Democrats in the same position they were before Arlen Specter defected. And the Democrats' shaky 60-seat supermajority was not doing them much good as far as optics and public perception went.

(3) The White House's tone will change to reflect the new math. It will be less even-tempered with the Republicans in Congress, while at the same time being more identifiably populist to moderate and independent swing voters. It will focus almost exclusively on things that poll at 50%+ or that are necessary to keep the country running. This may include some initiatives where they don't expect to receive Republican votes; such measures will be pushed to the floor quickly, forcing Republicans to cast a roll call vote to filibuster them rather than making disingenuous objections to the press.

(4) Some grievances that House members may have with the Senate's health care bill can be resolved through reconciliation in the Senate. The long time-frame before implementation provides a window of several years for this to be accomplished.

(5) Although there has been considerable damage extracted from the debate over health care, there is reason to believe that most of it is in the past. The health care bill itself has not become any more unpopular than when the Senate passed it in November. The party will not do itself any favors by having passed a health care bill through both chambers, only to see it implode.

(6) Near-term political fallout from passing health care may be mitigated somewhat by Republican giddiness over Scott Brown's victory and coverage of the SOTU.
Some of this is spin and some of it isn't, and all of it will place tremendous pressure on the White House to perform more effectively in 2010 than they did in 2009. But it's not an unsellable message.

more...
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/white-house-to-gamble-on-high-speed.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Lost4words]

1. yea yea, sure, It'll get better, uh ha...

I have heard the same for the last 29 years!

move on nothing going on here, move along now.

[BeyondGeography]

2. Oh, poor you

:cry:

[Lost4words]

3. you are correct, why couldnt I see that history means nothing?

I am such a fool.

[grytpype]

4. :cry:

[jefferson_dem]

5. Kick and Rec.

:kick: Great analysis from Nate, per usual.

[uponit7771]

6. Hopefully they'll use reconciliation, opening up medicare for 35-55 would be a solid