IL-SEN POLL: Giannoulias leads Kirk, 42/34.

[jefferson_dem]

Thursday, January 28, 2010
Giannoulias leads Kirk in poll

In a reminder that contested primaries can be a good thing Alexi Giannoulias has jumped out to a 42-34 lead over Mark Kirk in the race to be Illinois' next Senator. When PPP last looked at such a match up in April the two were tied at 35.

The reason for Giannoulias' ascent is that where he was winning 60% of the Democratic vote last spring he's now at 72%. As his party's voters have become more familiar with him over the course of the primary campaign his support from them has increased. Right now he leads 72-7 with Dems while Kirk is up 76-5 with Republicans. Kirk also has a 33-27 lead with independents. It's close to impossible for a GOP candidate to win statewide in Illinois without at least a double digit lead among independents and a double digit level of crossover support, and right now Kirk isn't there.

Kirk does lead the other two Democratic candidates, currently trailing Giannoulias in primary polling, by small margins. He's up 38-36 on Cheryle Jackson and 37-36 on David Hoffman.

These numbers could change a lot between now and November, as none of the candidates are particularly well known yet. Giannoulias and Kirk each have around 50% name recognition, with favorability spreads of 31/19 and 27/22 respectively. Jackson and Hoffman are each known to a third of the electorate or less with breakdowns of 16/17 and 16/11 respectively.

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http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/giannoulias-leads-kirk-in-poll.html

[Jennicut]

1. Kirk is nearly tied with Hoffman, the better candidate, in my opinion.

But good to see a Dem leading at this point. Or course polls mean nothing without campaigning hard.

[mucifer]

2. more people in the state know giannoulias than kirk. I'm not too optimistic

in this race. kirk branded himself as a moderate repub tho he isn't and won in a fairly liberal district. I'm predicting in a statewide election he is gonna beat giannoulias or Hoffman.

[truebrit71]

3. I sincerely hope you are wrong, but then again I would prefer Hoffman as the D candidate anyway...

...

[AlinPA]

4. I heard some radio ads in IL where a republican opponent was accusng Kirk of hanging

out with gay people. Really ugly stuff. Won't that hurt Kirk in Southern IL?