Poll: Obama's Nevada Visit Hurt Reid More Than It Helped

[a kennedy]

President Obama traveled to a fundraiser in Las Vegas in February hoping to aid the uphill reelection campaign of Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid. It turns out, however, that the President may have actually done more harm than good, a Mason-Dixon poll released on Sunday shows.

During his speech, Obama repeatedly heaped praise on Reid, but voters were apparently unimpressed. Subsequent polling shows that only 7 percent of voters surveyed said they would now be more likely to vote for the senator, while 17 percent said they would be less likely. Seventy-five percent said the president's visit would have no effect on how they vote.

Reid spokesman Jon Summers told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that such a political bump "wasn't the intent of the visit." Summers went on to say that "Senator Reid asked the president to come to Nevada to talk about jobs and the economy."

Though Obama's participation at the fundraiser may not have been designed to benefit Reid in November, the latest polls show that he certainly could have used a boost. The senator now trails the leading two Republican candidates, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, by more than 10 percent. With the inclusion of a Tea Party candidate, however, Reid leads the field.

The poll of 625 registered Nevada voters was conducted by telephone with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

full: <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/01/poll-obamas-nevada-visit_n_481148.html>

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Nah, that's a "no effect"

The real issue being polled (between the lines) is "Are your feelings about President Obama so intense that you will answer any poll question in such a way as to express that feeling?"

The 17% "less likely" was never going to vote for Reid. The "less" is 0.000001% chance vs.0.0000001%.

And the 7% "more likely" are going to vote for Reid no matter what.


Is there someone in Nevada who was actually be moved one way or another? Sure, probably. But probably not enough to show up in a poll.

[karynnj]

3. I agree

The only way to really get at this by polls is to poll the week before and the week after and look at the difference. That, of course, has its own drawback that it will also measure anything done by Reid, his opponents, the parties etc. I would imagine that the biggest impact is actually what it could mean if Obama did not campaign for him. If it were November and Obama had never come, that would send a very negative signal.

I have always thought that the main values of high level visits are to energize the already committed and with "new" candidates - to get people out to see the candidate using the draw of the special person. Even then, I suspect that it also works best in primaries when people are still deciding. Here, Nevada knows who Reid is and they know his record. The biggest thing this trip might have done is to make it harder for the Republicans to argue that Reid does not have power - power that can be used to advance needs of Nevadans.

[customerserviceguy]

2. That gives me an idea

If President Obama wishes to have the votes of Blue Dogs, all he's got to do is say that he'll stay out of their districts this fall, if they'll vote for HCR!