There seems to be just two possible outcomes to the impending HCR vote:

[Atticus]

We could "pass a sell-out POS" bill causing our "real" liberals to abandon the party or we could let HCR die and surrender control of Congress after the 2010 elections and hamstring the Obama presidency, virtually guaranteeing a Republican in the Whitehouse in 2012.

Those seem to be the only options being discussed here. Doesn't anyone see other possibilities?

[IndianaGreen]

1. Health Care Reform: A Political Lose-Lose for President Obama and Democrats?

A great column by David Brody:

Health Care Reform: A Political Lose-Lose for President Obama and Democrats?

I've got some bad news for President Obama and the Democrats. Politically, this health care reform issue could very well end up as a lose-lose situation. Let me explain.

If health care reform does not pass then it'll look like the Democratic Party and this administration can't get their act together and govern. At that point, November 2010 could look like me in a bathing suit. Downright nasty.

If health care reform does pass then get ready for health care Armageddon. If you think those town halls last August were rough, imagine what this August will be like. Those town halls across the country may end up making the Jerry Springer show look tame.

The Democratic Party is in a tough spot because even if they pass health care reform, we're really not going to see any sort of tangible result for years. In other words, there is not going to be an exact quantitative way for the Democrats to measure its potential for success in 2010 or even 2012. There might be some signs that Democrats will no doubt point to but honestly, all of us will have no clue.

I know the conventional thinking is that Democrats just HAVE to get a bill through or they will look like political goofballs. While that may indeed be true, I think the larger problem for them politically is if they pass this bill through reconciliation. This administration has already been saddled with the narrative (fair or unfair) that they want to shove big government programs down the throats of Americans. Throwing in reconciliation will only fan the flames. When you have polling suggesting that Americans aren't buying the big government approach to health care then you're playing with fire. Piecemeal is the safer play but this President came to The White House wanting to do big things so piecemeal isn't going to work.

Years ago, using reconciliation to pass the Bush tax cuts may not have been the right thing to do (depending on your perspective) but the big difference is that millions of Americans were getting checks in the mail because of it. It's hard to be against that. You won't hear too much complaining about that but passing health care reform through reconciliation doesn't have that immediate payoff. People are impatient. What are they getting immediately? Health care reform will take some time to play out and right now time is not a friend of the Democrats.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-brody/healthcare-reform-a-polit_b_483944.html

[subterranean]

3. This column ignores some key points.

First, the Senate already passed the bill with a 60-vote majority. Reconciliation would only be used to make a few necessary improvements after the House signs it.

Second, polling does not suggest that Americans "aren't buying the big government approach to health care." Poll after poll shows MORE support for reform WITH a government-run insurance option than without it. That hardly seems like a rejection of "big government."

The biggest problem the Democrats will have this November is turnout. A bill with a mandate to buy for-profit private insurance and no public option is not going to get the progressive base fired up to get out the vote. Putting a decent public option back in and passing it would help a lot in that regard.

[freddie mertz]

2. Lots of things get discussed here.

You need to look a little harder.

[customerserviceguy]

4. I see another possibility

This creaky ship of an HCR bill goes down in flames in the next few weeks, as either the House refuses to vote on the Senate bill, because they haven't gotten the "fix" bill voted on by the Senate, or the Senate simply cannot muster up 50 votes (plus Biden) for the "fix" bill by reconciliation. After some wailing and gnashing of teeth by the MSM that produced this broken sausage, America starts to enjoy summer and forgets about the whole thing.

In the meantime, Congress does some effective things about jobs, and we put into place the rest of what's needed for the recovery. Rethuglicans run teabaggers against our Blue Dogs in the fall, and they win, letting the baggers think they're on some kind of a roll. The next two years, we see President Obama expose them to be the haters they are, and we have stalemate government while the economy picks back up again.

The voters get sick of the baggers, and by the 2012 election, they're ready to put grown ups in charge again, this time we have nominated progressive candidates who ride in on President Obama's coattails. In 2013, we get to start with a new "100 Days" and the first thing on the agenda is single payer healthcare. With a healthy economy, America decides that it can afford to start it as soon as practically possible, unencumbered by the "let's give the 2010 legislation a chance to see if it will work" from the naysayers.

[Ozymanithrax]

5. If the House and the Senate refuse to pass the bill...they should all be replaced by republicans.

If we are going to have giggling murderers who enjoy the idea that 45,000 people a year die without health care, they should be labeled as such, and proud to wear the label.

[harun]

6. Those are the options and they will go with the sellout POS bill.