Howard Dean: 2010 won't be as bad for Dems as people think

[babylonsister]

Thursday, Mar 4, 2010 07:01 EST
Howard Dean: 2010 won't be as bad for Dems as people think

Former DNC chair tells Salon it'll be anti-incumbent, not anti-Dem, year; praises president's moves on healthcare

By Alex Koppelman


A lot of people see doom on the Democratic Party's horizon this fall. Respected political analyst Charlie Cook has even said he believes Republicans will recapture the House this year. But Howard Dean, the former governor who served as chairman of the Democratic National Committee until last year, believes things might not be as bad as they seem.

"I think what you're going to see in the fall is not so much an anti-Democratic vote, I think you're going to see an anti-incumbent vote, and I think that's going to include Republicans," Dean said in an interview with Salon on Wednesday.

"There are two good signs for the Democrats: One is all this blowup happened 10 months before the election, not 10 weeks before the election. Two, the average American believes that better times are ahead. Those are two important indicators. Now, there are plenty of indicators that aren't so good, but I think a month is a huge lifetime in politics, so I think we're actually going to do a bit better than people are predicting."

One of the reasons Dean sees for hope has to do with the issue he's been most associated with over the past year, healthcare reform. The former DNC chair hasn't been wild about the way Democrats have gone about passing a bill so far, or about the legislation itself, but he's encouraged by what's been happening in recent days.

"Obviously I wish this had been done a while ago, but I really think it's terrific that the president brought the bill back. It's a high-risk strategy and it shows that he can exhibit some strength and leadership, so that's very, very important. And now we'll see what comes out of it."

more...

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/howard_dean/index.html?story=/news/feature/2010/03/04/howard_dean_interview

[Cosmocat]

1. He is right ...

I have been saying this for months now ...

The media is trying VERY hard to make this a massive R sweep in the fall, but it is not likely ...

The Ds are over extended in R leaning and toss up districts, and without a maximum presidential turnout, are going to lose seats, just a fact of life ...

But, once health care gets done, there will be enough time for it to simply having passed the bill and all the extraneous BS will not hold - it will be a net positive for Ds ...

As long as there is not a major economic downturn, it is just going to be the Rs being bombastic idiots ...

Also, the media is VERY MUCH under/non reporting the gremlin aspect of the tea party ... They are going to be more than a few NY 23s, where they get an unelectable right wing extremist into the general over a more moderate and electable R OR they will throw fits when their candidates lose in the primary and not support the establishment type R ...

They have the energy, and it will help them ... But, it is not completely focused in their favor ... The Tea Party will provide a net gain in the end, but will also LOSE them some seats ...

[dkf]

6. As long as there isn't another economic downturn huh?

Obama will pour more money into the sinkhole to keep it from happening. He allows the financials to play with our money as they count on us to pay up if their plans go awry. This should have been his first priority. What a mess.

[babylonsister]

8. Why do you continually place the blame on this admin?

They've only been trying to correct the mistakes of the previous admin. so this country doesn't fall into the sewer. And it's working despite your negativeness.

[dkf]

16. They haven't fixed it.

We are in the same exact danger from the same exact players. Even the crew at funny or die recognize this.

And I'm so upset because the prioritization of issues leaves us hugely vulnerable to catastrophe.

Just wait til all of us lose our jobs. Who will have healthcare then?

[damonm]

17. Enjoy your gloom while it lasts.

Most prognosticators, including San Francisco outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas (who have called the last 3 recoveries with scary accuracy), expect hiring upticks beginning late 2nd quarter 2010 and continuing thru end of year. CG&C says unemployment COULD be as low as 8.5% by the end of the calendar year.
Personally, I look forward to freeper heads exploding when that happens.

[dkf]

18. The last collapse was not caused by the economy.

It was the natural end to a bubble caused by financial derivatives and leverage. It collapsed because it was unsustainable.

[goclark]

12. Seems like Dean has changed his tune to a more positive note

That is the Dean that I know and loved.

[Clio the Leo]

2. That's what I've thought for some time but it's good to know....

.... someone as smart as Howard (who's far from being an Obama cheerleader) thinks the same.

[Clio the Leo]

3. And I think it's safe to say at this point.....

.... the President wouldn't STILL be trying to pass HCR if he didn't think he could get it passed. It's too risky politically unless you can come out with a win this late in the game.

[NJmaverick]

4. Dean got this right

[dkf]

5. He is playing party chair better than Tim Kaine

Now he Is trying to rally the troops. The man always was true blue.

[depakid]

7. Parties that don't use their majorities- lose their majorities

Tic tock.

[Jennicut]

9. Well, the poll I posted yesterday showed that people are angry at all incumbents.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x205926#206551
In that McClatchy-Ipsos poll it showed MORE people place blame on the Rethugs as to why things are not getting done, though they are unhappy with both parties at this point. Obama is still around 50% approval.

I don't think we are losing the House or Senate. We will have losses as some districts simply go back and forth and are not really Dem strongholds.

[Robbins]

10. He Is right

I have been saying for awhile we will lose seats In congress but will not be what the MSM Is trying to sell.The House doesn't flip
easy.It took 40 years of Democratic control for Republicans to take It.And took 12 years for Democrats to take It back.There are
more Republican retirements than Democratic retirement which never gets mentioned too much.Yes Democrats from mccain Districts
are In trouble but there are still a few Republicans In Obama DIstricts that can be targeted.

Whatever happens Democrats will keep the senate.The Republicans need to pick up 10 seats or 9 and Lieberman crossing over.Even In
1994 Republicans didn't win 10 Senate seats.And Scott Brown's victory should remind us all that races can change.Just because polls
say one thing now doesn't mean they will stay the same In the fall.

And I certainly don't remember the MSM In March 2006 going on and on about Republicans being In trouble.Of course the fact of Leno
having Palin on tonight show when you hardly ever see Democrats Invited there shows the truth on who the MSM IS for.

[Peacetrain]

11. Bingo... I think that also

[bvar22]

13. Thats odd.

Last week in live interview on MSNBC, The Good Doctor stated that if the Democrats do NOT include a good Public Option, then they could very well lose the majority in The House.

He also said the the Democrats need to do something to provide immediate relief (before the election) like expanding Medicare to 55, or the Democrats WILL pay a price at the polls in 2010.

He wasn't the slightest bit ambiguous about this.

[Arkana]

14. I think Dean is surprised and pleased that Obama didn't cut and run

from health care when Snotty Scotty got himself elected in MA.

[yurbud]

19. that is a slightly bright side. The dark side is the Dems ''negotiated'' as if they had

a razor thin majority instead of a wide one in the House and a supermajority in the Senate.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

20. I've never seen someone so misread as Obama.

Honestly, I just think people can't wrap their minds around the idea that he doesn't play by the traditional political rulebook. I know most of DU doesn't understand that.

[Hawaii Hiker]

15. I think Jim Bunning's one man filibuster will hurt Rethugs

That incident only further proves how obstructionist the GOP is....Democrats should bring up Bunning's filibuster non-stop once the fall campaigns gets underway...

Throw in the 7 (i think it was) Rethugs who voted against the debt commission when it was proposed by the Democrats but supported it as a Republican idea...

Democrats have some great campaign ads that could be made because of Republican obstrctionism....

[old mark]

21. A few points: I think all this refusal by the GOP to do anything serious

to help the people out of this depression will come back to bite them. They played very juvenils politics with very serious situations-jobs, health care, unemployment, layoffs, families in real need-and many people will remember that the Democrats TRIED and the GOP tried to stop them. There will be blame enough to go around to both parties, but the GOP has really made themselves look very bad to many working people, and I think a lot of their base has evaporated.
Even though the Democratd don't look very good, the GOP looks far worse, and those people in the political middle will vote for us.
Also, the very crazy right will vote with the 'Bagger candidates, whoever they may turn out to be-I think they will split from the GOP, leaving them with a very thin slice of the right who will vote for their candidates, and they will lose a few seats to the Democrats.
Not calling any specific races, but that's how I see it happening.

mark

[davidpdx]

22. +1

I agree with you OM, the Republicans made very few concessions in terms of helping the country get out of the mess they put us in. We may lose our margin in the House by ten and in the Senate by a few, but it's not going to be as grim as it looked if HCR gets passed. The Tea Party wackos will certainly help as well. I hope they run a wacko in every state.

[Grand Taurean]

24. +2

[LatteLibertine]

23. I'd agree

particularly if they pass meaningful HCR and financial sector reform.

Right now the same players that caused the financial market crisis are still employed in that sector doing what they did prior to said event.