2012: Primary Obama?

[JackRiddler]

Simple yes or no - debates below.

[DJ13]

1. Yes/No

When people say he shouldnt be challenged in 2012 I think that removes the pressure on the WH for Obama to feel a need to please his base, which is the only leverage we have to keep him from moving further to the right than he already has moved.

[IndianaGreen]

2. We are assuming that Obama will run for a second term

Any President can be challenged in the Presidential primaries.

[Birthmark]

3. I hate to say it but, yes

I like Barack Obama as a person. He seems like a great guy, good father, and all that. But politically he and I are on different continents.

[Name removed]

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[Change Happens]

4. BREAKING NEWS: Obama is not likely to run in 2012.

MHO

[Bicoastal]

6. Ridiculous. I haven't seen poll numbers NEARLY low enough for him to consider such a thing.

Your mistake is assuming this site is a microcosm of the country, the party, or even the Progressive movement. It isn't.

[Change Happens]

33. It won't be about poll numbers or anything political...He and his family will just decide

He does not need to be there anymore...President Obama will be 100% content with his accomplishments AND I do think the American people will be asking him to run again, but he will politely decline.

[salguine]

36. "His accomplishments"? So you think there will eventually be some, then?

[Change Happens]

70. Yes, he will be able to claim victory on:

Health Care
Climate/Energy Bill
Financial Reform

All three issues are moving along nicely in Congress.



And I am hoping he/Sec. Clinton will be able to get something done in Palestine/Israel...Not too hopefull on this issue.

[nedmildow]

77. financial reform..? really?

I'm not so sure about that one..

but health care, yes.
and stimulus reversed all trends, so he stopped the recession.

eduation.. it's been quiet.
and foreign policy.. nothing. he underestimated mideast, in his own words.
he must have had some confidence a year back.

but naw.. he's fed up with the job.
the first afro-american president, passing health care.
that's more than enough for even two terms.

the do-nothing approach abroad is also way better than the last guy.

he'll pull out early 2012. but it shows already. he wants nothing out of this.

[karynnj]

39. Did this come to you in a dream? Or in a hallucination?

Any one ambitious enough to run for President is highly unlikely to just give it up. There will always be more to do.

[salguine]

68. Jim Polk did. He stated at the outset that he was only going to serve one term, and he showed up

with a list of things he wanted to get done in that one term. He did all of them and, true to his word, declined to run for reelection.

[emilyg]

47. Accomplishments? LOL

[nedmildow]

74. Obama just wants to go home..

Look at his face.. he's not enjoying this job one second.
He didn't know anything about politics before he got president, and now he hates it.

He'll pass the ball and do something else..

[Lord Helmet]

11. Is that from the Onion?

[jefferson_dem]

12. BREAKING NEWS: Bullshit.

[impik]

34. His people already started to work on 2012 campaign

He's a tough cookie.

[Name removed]

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[Skip Intro]

67. My gut has said the same thing for a while. Two years is a long time in politics...

He may be in a position to have a new wave of Dems ride ashore on his coattails. Or he may have alienated, or allowed himself to be alienated, by so many that his chances are slim at that point, at which point he might step down for the good of the party. No way to know from here and now what might be then.

Having said that, no one is entitled to the presidency, and everyone has a right to run, and I'm a little hesitant to criticize anyone for acting upon his or her rights.

[xchrom]

5. At this point I am apathetic to anyones presidential aspirations. Nt

[sandyj999]

7. I am also. n/t

[harun]

31. I'm with yah.

[nemo137]

8. A long, contested primary, whether of not Obama runs for a second term

is the best way to get a Republican president in the White House.

[polmaven]

9. I agree 100%!

If we want Romney/Palin in 2012 we should absolutely "primary" the president!

[Jennicut]

10. Yes, and he may not get challenged from the left. Evan Bayh, anyone?

[nemo137]

13. that's my fucking nightmare

Bayh runs, if the economy's not better anti-incumbent sentiment gives him a kick, and progressives make good on their threat to stay home. We get a weak candidate either way, whoever the Republicans run wins, and we get boned on court appointments.

[BeyondGeography]

22. Obama is a weak candidate?

That's funny.

Evan Bayh could beat him in a national nomination battle?

Even funnier.

[Arkana]

41. The idea of Evan Bayh somehow challenging the President from the RIGHT

in a Democratic primary is making me laugh my spleen out.

News flash, guys--just because George Wallace tried to do it once doesn't mean it's even possible anymore.

[dionysus]

81. ROFL

:spray:

[Sebastian Doyle]

21. Please, that wouldn't even be a contest.

Even Ralph Nader would vote for Obama to keep that piece of shit Bayh away from the White House. :rofl:

[Jennicut]

32. If people are stupid enough to vote for Bush the second time, they are stupid enough to vote for

anyone. Except maybe Sarah Palin. I am not sure people are THAT stupid.

[hay rick]

84. That's my America.

Stupid enough to elect Bush to a second term, but not stupid enough to elect Sarah Palin. Poor Sarah- they set the bar so high...

[Name removed]

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[liquid diamond]

76. The possibility of that just doesn't phase some posters here.

Gotta maintain those principles.

[hay rick]

85. We already have a Republican in the White House.

As for the effect of a contested primary on his chances- it will keep him in the spotlight and, whatever else he is, Obama is definitely telegenic.

[TankLV]

15. Yes. Obama is NOT the "change" I voted for at all...

Aparently, all the things he said are just TALK and MEANINGLESS...

Now, who should replace him - I don't know at this point.

But then again, once the primaries are over, and if it's any repuke, then I will NOT EVER vote for a reupuke...

[WonderGrunion]

16. I picked "Traitor". I support the Democratic president on DU

The concept of primarying Obama is disgraceful.

[Sebastian Doyle]

19. Now there's irony for you

Calling a presidential primary opponent "disgraceful" while using an avatar of a guy who did exactly that in 1980.

[WonderGrunion]

20. I changed my avatar to respect his passing. I haven't changed it back yet.

Teddy gave us Reagan with his actions. That was disgraceful.

[Sebastian Doyle]

23. I don't blame Teddy at all for that.

Poppy Bush's manipulation of the Iranian hostage crisis was the major factor in it. I don't think anything like that is likely to happen in 2012.

On the other hand, there is the economic factor. The country's in a much bigger mess right now than it was in 1980 (ironically due to all the bullshit policies starting with Reagan/Poppy) and sadly, Obama appointing a bunch of Clinton retreads to his economic team has not done a damn bit of good in the real world (fuck the Wall Street bonuses, that's not "recovery")

Add a corporate mandated clusterfuck erroneously labeled "health care reform" on top of that, and things are not looking good for Obama. He has time to turn it around, but first, he needs to show some interest in doing so. And the first sign of that would be bringing in some people capable of doing the work, followed by an approach to the problem that's more reminiscent of FDR than Bill Clinton.

If effort in these areas is clearly evident by 2012, then I don't see any serious challenge to the President's re-election. After all, this country wasn't entirely healed from the Depression in 1936, yet the progress was obvious, and the people voted accordingly. As they did in 1940 and 44.

IF Obama cannot do the job, then shouldn't we bring in someone who CAN? Before the Repukes bring in someone to pick up where Chimpy W. Hoover left off.

[WonderGrunion]

24. I have confidence that he will do the job

That you do not says far more about you.

[Sebastian Doyle]

26. The results, so far, do not inspire confidence.

I didn't expect him to fix everything in one year. But I definitely DID expect him not to make any deliberate moves in the WRONG direction. And that's what happened when he put a bunch of DLC'ers and Wall $treet whores in charge of the economy. Not to mention the whole Arnie Duncan fiasco, and going in exactly the opposite direction on health care that we should be.

Now there are two possibilities here:

1) The President truly has the best intentions, but is surrounded by bad advice.

2) The President is doing the wrong things deliberately, and is just another DINO himself.

Either possibility is bad, but at least the first one can be undone, if he dumps the bad advice and brings in a better team. If the second possibility is true, then voting him out is the only course of action available.

As I said, he has time to change the direction, if he wants to. If he does not want to, then why would we want to keep him?

[noise]

27. The rallying cry will be

"We can't afford any divisiveness. The threat of a Palin/Gingrich win makes a primary challenge too risky. It's time to circle the wagons."

[Sebastian Doyle]

43. I'm all for circling the wagons.

Provided we can put the DLC and Blue Balled Cowards on the outside of the circle and let them take the hits from the arrows & bullets.

er, proverbially speaking, of course.

[WonderGrunion]

28. But you assume that he won't change direction, don't you?

I changed my avatar because you reminded me about it.

[Sebastian Doyle]

29. I don't assume anything.

Like I've said twice now, he has time to turn it around. Theoretically, two years, though if there is not some forward movement this year, there will be losses in the congressional elections, and given the ridiculous amount of time allotted to Presidential campaigns in recent years, we all know the 2012 election begins in 2011. So that makes this year the time to make the right decisions. I truly hope he does.

[Lyric]

17. Don't know yet.

There's a lot that can happen between now and then. We'll see.

[VMI Dem]

18. Don't plan to vote for him regardless.

I may vote for the right Democratic challenger.

[noise]

25. Misplaced concern for the "prestige of the party"

Some people are worried that a primary challenger would make Obama look bad or weak or hurt his chances in the general election. Are those same people just as worried about Obama's conduct in office that is leading to the groundswell for a primary challenger?

[JackRiddler]

30. Well, look at how the long, vicious primary campaign ruined the Democrats' chances in 2008.

Oh.

[liquid diamond]

79. The circumstances in the 2008 primaries and those of 2012

will not be the same. Oh.

[quiller4]

94. Groundswell?! What are you smoking?

[Name removed]

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[ProSense]

52. "I wish we could have a no-confidence recall on Presidents right now."

What's stopping you?

[paulk]

37. way to early to make that decision

[ProSense]

53. It's never too early

for people to fantasize.

[paulk]

73. anything can happen in politics

to accuse people of "fantasizing" is demeaning.

[depakid]

38. The more constituencies the administration alienates- the greater the possibility becomes

[colsohlibgal]

42. He Needs To Be Challenged!

I hope, if Obama doesn't do almost a 180 very soon, that some progressive straight shooter like Grayson will challenge him. Even if, as is likely, he or anyone else cannot beat the built in advantage an incumbent has, he might force Obama left.

Something drastic has to be at least planned since this administration has been a lot of more of the same - which is particularly a joke since he ran on "Change You Can Believe In". Still waiting on that, in honor of Clara Peller, may she RIP, where's the freaking beef?.

[DutchLiberal]

44. Yes! Let Howard Dean or Russ Feingold show Obama how it's done...

Or Sheldon Whitehouse; he's great as well.

[LWolf]

46. YES.

Challenge him with someone who favors peace, health care, labor, and education over corporate interests.

[MissDeeds]

59. +100

A president who favors Democratic ideals would be nice for a change.

[madamesilverspurs]

48. Pet Smart.

They do sell dog whistles, don't they?

-

[SoxFan]

49. New Hampshire Primary, 2012

Barack Obama 94%
Vermin Supreme 4%
Dennis Kucinich 2%

[depakid]

51. Past results:

1980 - Jimmy Carter* (47.1%) Edward M. Kennedy (37.3%) Edmund G. Brown, Jr. (9.6%)

1968 - Lyndon Johnson* (49.6%) Eugene McCarthy (41.4%) Richard M. Nixon (4.6%)

When McCarthy came within 7 percentage points of defeating President Lyndon Johnson in New Hampshire, Johnson withdrew from the election with this Shermanesque statement: "I shall not seek, and will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."

[CBR]

54. Well 1980 and 1968 turned out so well. nt

[depakid]

56. Carter had a large lead against Reagan in 1980- which he blew all by himself. RFK was assasinated

which changed the dynamics of the race completely.

And there were also impressive third party dynamics to consider in both of those years (of course, it's quite possible that might be the case in 2012).

Point being- the primary itself isn't to blame for either of those losses- but rather the nature of the general election races, the context of the times, and the candidates own records and actions drove the results.

[CBR]

58. Yup and that is why President Obama will be reelected. nt

[depakid]

60. It's a little far out to reasonably make that sort of prediction-

There are plenty of dynamics at play that suggest otherwise- and plenty that bode well for his chances.

The biggest wildcard (actually the elephant in the room) is oil prices.

Americans entertain some wildly irrational notions about energy issues and as we've seen, are rather easily driven by base emotion and unrealistic desires. A good illustration of that can be found right here on LBN in the muscle car fantasy thread.

Fact is, as world economies recover (even if America remains more or less stagnant) oil prices will rise. By how much?

Anyone's guess. I figure $250.00 a barrel is easily in the cards.

That translates into roughly $7.00 per gallon at the pumps.

[Go2Peace]

66. absolutely he will. Those who are dissatisfied will rally around the President -when the time comes

Progressives on this board, despite how they are treated sometimes here, are actually some of the most loyal and activated Democrats. They will be there, as I will be, for whoever is the Democratic final challenger. The real risk is losing congressional seats. And those will be lost or gained by the Party and it's effectiveness in messaging and making real change.

But I am not so sure that a serious Primary change might not be a good thing, as it will get rid of this stubborn idea that the party leans to the Right once and for all. The party needs to feel the heat of it's base. At this point it would be good for our leadership to walk away with their rear end smoking! It might save us a lot of trouble in the future to get out a stong "who's the boss" message. I much prefer that to a one party nation.

[Ter]

69. I'm still shocked Clinton didn't face a primary in 1996

The last one was in 1992, with Pat Buchanan challenging Poppy Bush.

[David Zephyr]

50. I've already written that we need a primary challenge.

If only to bring him back (if that's even possible now) to the center from the right where he governs from now.

[denimgirly]

55. Anthony Weiner -- He is Honest.

[nedmildow]

80. weiner is great..

but he'll drop out of politics soon i fear... he's to outspoken and energetic.. the slamming of gops on the house floor the other day, some of the best i've seen..

but he'll go private and accomplish stuff.
never understood why he didn't go for mayor last time,
he would've beaten mike "like a rented mule" in his own words on jon stewart :-)

[denimgirly]

82. Agreed!

Yea he seems too good for politics and i actually agree that he will just end up doing something different. sadly.

[nedmildow]

88. Yup.. it would be sad on two levels,

that we loose him in public service,
and the confirmation that political culture don't fit that kinds of people.

but let's hope we're wrong!!
he could stay on for another 5-10 years, or maybe longer.
it's hard to read peoples motivation,
he might be in for the long haul.

cheers!

[craigmatic]

57. No because presidents who get primary challenges typically lose. Look at hw bush and Carter.

[CakeGrrl]

61. Sure, if the OP wants the Republicans back in power! Stupid poll.

[burning rain]

62. Yes.

I had hoped it wouldn't come to this, given the certainty of dividing the party, but I find I have to face it squarely. The escalation in Afghanistan and drone attacks, the sell-outs and BS regarding prescription drug reimportation and the public option, the shelving of EFCA and NAFTA modifications, and privatization of common goods like public education, especially, and at NASA, are just too much for me. I do accept the logic of lesser evilism, but there still has to be a line somewhere, and the president has crossed it for me.

Who to back in a primary? Dean, most likely. I will want to see a lot of specifics, as I'm mindful that in his days as governor of Vermont, he was a DLC moderate. But I do like the improved HoDo and would probably vote for him in a primary. At any rate, I won't be voting for the president in the primary, even if I have to write someone in. But, I do expect the president to get renominated, and I'd pull the lever for him in the general election.

[saltpoint]

63. I'll be supporting the re-election campaign of Barack Obama.

I think he is poised to do very well in the 2012 general.

[saltpoint]

64. If you primary an agile soul like Barack Obama, the candidates so

planning need to be possessed of some common sense.

I think Howard Dean has a great deal of common sense and will not challenge the president for the 2012 nomination.

Who else has been mentioned? . . .

. . .

. . .

Smart money's on Obama.

[saltpoint]

65. A third party effort by Lee Mercer and the whole thing gets tossed ass

over tea cups.

[shotten99]

71. We've forgotten that there is in fact a difference between the two parties.

Obama isn't perfect, but he's better than Bush or whomever else the GOP has waiting.

Be careful what you wish for...

[ShadowLiberal]

72. President's haven't been successfully primaried out of office in over a century for a reason

If a president screws up enough to lose their own party's nomination then chances are that party was going to lose the white house anyway.

[nedmildow]

78. but lbj opted out in '68..

and polk was a successful one-termer.. expand the empire coast-to-coast and go home.. mid 19th century.

[liquid diamond]

75. No. It would only hurt the party.

There are still bitter people from the 2008 primaries. We don't need anymore infighting or PUMAS.

[Akoto]

83. Can't decide. He still has years of work ahead. n/t

[hay rick]

86. Voted yes.

Time to hold his feet to the fire and see if he can "compromise" with somebody not on the extreme right.

[Tailormyst]

87. I think it is pretty unlikely to happen

[Hell Hath No Fury]

89. I would be very interested in a primary challenge --

if only to push the dialogue and force O to defend his record and positions to primary voters. :shrug:

[mdmc]

90. Obama will be re-elected in 2012

I support a Kucinich style primary, but I know that Obama can have it if he wants it..

[bigwillq]

91. Yes

All incumbents should face primary challenges in every election. Let the people decide and may the best man/woman win.

[onenote]

92. for those that think Obama will or should face a primary, how about suggesting who that challenger

might be.

What individual will have the desire and resources to mount anything more than a silly quixotic challenge to Obama.

[Recovered Repug]

93. And that might be the "easy" part.

The candidate would then have to unify the Democrats and still pick up enough independants to win in November.

[Macoy]

95. Hillary Supporter Here

I am a strong Hillary supporter, however; I do NOT want her to run against the President. Warts and all, he is our President. Of course, if the President chooses not to seek re-election, then I am all for her running.


Macoy