If Democrats ignore health-care polls, midterms will be costly

[IndianaGreen]

If Democrats ignore health-care polls, midterms will be costly

By Patrick H. Caddell and Douglas E. Schoen
Friday, March 12, 2010

In "The March of Folly," Barbara Tuchman asked, "Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests?" Her assessment of self-deception -- "acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts" -- captures the conditions that are gripping President Obama and the Democratic Party leadership as they renew their efforts to enact health-care reform.

Their blind persistence in the face of reality threatens to turn this political march of folly into an electoral rout in November. In the wake of the stinging loss in Massachusetts, there was a moment when the president and the Democratic leadership seemed to realize the reality of the health-care situation. Yet like some seductive siren of Greek mythology, the lure of health-care reform has arisen again.

As pollsters to the past two Democratic presidents, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, respectively, we feel compelled to challenge the myths that seem to be prevailing in the political discourse and to once again urge a change in course before it is too late. At stake is the kind of mainstream, common-sense Democratic Party that we believe is crucial to the success of the American enterprise.

Bluntly put, this is the political reality:

First, the battle for public opinion has been lost. Comprehensive health care has been lost. If it fails, as appears possible, Democrats will face the brunt of the electorate's reaction. If it passes, however, Democrats will face a far greater calamitous reaction at the polls. Wishing, praying or pretending will not change these outcomes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/11/AR2010031102904.html?nav=hcmodule

[gateley]

1. The polls concern me because of how they're worded -- I fear the 'results'

will show an inaccurate representation of how people really do feel.

[jezebel]

2. This is written by FAUX News favorite "Democratic pollsters". Tells me it's bullshit. nt

[dkf]

7. Unfortunately we will find out the hard way

In addition the number of people who will be helped are a minority and the majority won't be significantly advantaged in that they won't be able to feel the benefit.

Since the bill doesn't do much to hold down costs any rise will be perceived as happening because of the changes we made. Insurance conpanies will say premiums are rising because they had to cover sick people and other provisions in the bill.

It's going to be a wreck.

[tridim]

3. Now every permutation of possible outcomes has been predicted.

The conclusion is that no matter what happens or what doesn't happen with HCR, everything good and bad will or will not happen as a result.

It's all so clear to me now.

[dkf]

4. Hey you left out the most important paragraphs

"Nothing has been more disconcerting than to watch Democratic politicians and their media supporters deceive themselves into believing that the public favors the Democrats' current health-care plan. Yes, most Americans believe, as we do, that real health-care reform is needed. And yes, certain proposals in the plan are supported by the public.

However, a solid majority of Americans opposes the massive health-reform plan. Four-fifths of those who oppose the plan strongly oppose it, according to Rasmussen polling this week, while only half of those who support the plan do so strongly. Many more Americans believe the legislation will worsen their health care, cost them more personally and add significantly to the national deficit. Never in our experience as pollsters can we recall such self-deluding misconstruction of survey data."

[IndianaGreen]

6. The Senate's HCR is a major tax increase that will hurt the working class

and the fascistic mandate, in which the omnipotent IRS is used as an enforcer for the health insurance industry, is an abomination.

[dkf]

12. Those are the negatives that take down approval of the entire plan.

The intensity of dislike for these 2 aspects of the bill overwhelms it.

[Pirate Smile]

5. Faux Dems warning Democrats, just like Republicans are, to not pass hcr.

Dems are wisely ignoring them.

[RaleighNCDUer]

10. Yes, most Americans believe, as we do, that real health-care reform is needed. And yes, certain

proposals in the plan are supported by the public.

However, a solid majority of Americans opposes the massive health-reform plan.

Maybe that is too complicated for you. Try this:

People want health care reform.
People do not see health care reform in THIS bill.
People oppose THIS bill.

After they've delayed and delayed for months, suddenly we URGENTLY need to pass THIS bill, which the majority of the people don't want.

The DLCers have brought this down on us, and WE will feel the results.

[IndianaGreen]

13. and DLCers are not the ones that knock on doors, make phone calls, and register voters

The DLC will have to do all of that, to make up for the pissed off progressives that will spend this summer and fall in non-political activities.

[Hello_Kitty]

29. Bingo! eom

[SoxFan]

31. So, Pat Caddell is now a DLCer?

:wtf:

[Mass]

43. He is way to the right of a DLCer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Caddell

[Jennicut]

8. Some of these Dems will lose if they vote against the bill or for it.

It is the economy, not the HCR that will be the main issue.
The President's Party usually loses seats on off-years.
Incumbents are all disliked right now, both Rethug and Dems. But Dems are in charge and will be the first to go.
The latest poll on HCR on gallup was split almost down the middle. It is not that cut and dried.

[marylanddem]

9. This health care fiasco is a pathetic mess.

blind narcissism at the highest levels.

[tridim]

14. Unless you ignore the RW spin.

The spin which is specifically meant to generate posts like yours.

FUD.

[ClassWarrior]

18. You mean like the spin that Dennis Kucinich is a secret RWer operating under orders...

...from his puppetmasters?

:rofl:

The spin which is specifically meant to validate posts like yours?

NGU.

[tridim]

22. Who said that?

[smalll]

39. Yes it is. Health Care in this country is ALREADY a pathetic mess --

pass this bill, and all the subsequent pathetic messiveness we will face over the next future years will suddenly be blamed on OBAMA and OBAMACARE -- which, ironically, is one of the arguments supporters of this bill try to use -- "Look, there's no way this won't have to be addressed/fixed later -- we will have to come in and make adjustments, AKA deal with the trainwreck step-by-step as it unfolds.

[ClassWarrior]

11. Feverish unreccing will not change these outcomes, either.

:rofl:

NGU.

[damonm]

38. No, it won't.

Political reality, OTOH...that kills it dead.

[upi402]

15. It's not looking good

The bill will be viewed as an insurance company subsidy and a consumer betrayal, by active Democrats. The base will return the favor by turning their backs I bet.

[tridim]

16. FUD nt

[upi402]

19. I'm certain. NO FEAR

go ahead and doubt it, we'll see.
I was marching in the streets when HCR tout Ed Schultz was a Republican. I tried to prevent this corporatism. Now you slam people trying to help avoid the next DLC betrayal. That takes the piss.

[RaleighNCDUer]

49. I'm not up on my acronyms - what is FUD?

Fuck you, Democrats?

[flpoljunkie]

17. Neither of these political hacks have the best interests of the Democratic party at heart.

I prefer what Bob Shrum has written on the matter.

ROBERT SHRUM

Is Obama winning?

The president's long-game strategy has confounded a town with a famously short attention span. With Obama doubling down on health reform, our columnist doubles down on Obama.

POSTED ON MARCH 11, 2010

As the dreary winter winds down, the political weather is also changing. On the economy, the green shoots of recovery, seeded more than a year ago, may now have their spring. On health care, the Obama renaissance is real—a historic achievement is within reach. And as these events unfold, the media, in an act of swift revisionism, may conclude that the White House, rather than falling victim to an internal conflict between idealism and pragmatism, has instead married them to advance its ambitious agenda.

First, the economy.

The devoutly conservative Larry Kudlow, of the Reagan administration and CNBC, insisted on Obama’s inauguration day that markets were the most reliable predictors of the future. He was right. With unemployment down from peak levels and job losses ebbing, with housing prices stabilized and other indicators pointing up, the Standard & Poor’s stock index has soared nearly 70 percent since its March 2009 lows—and nearly 40 percent since Obama took office with an economy teetering on the brink of depression.

This remarkable rise anticipates as many as hundreds of thousands of jobs, which forecasters are now predicting not for next year but for this month. During the interregnum between passage of the stimulus bill last year and its impact this year, the president was urged to focus solely on "jobs, jobs, jobs"—as though the mantra itself would create them. But his policies had already averted the depression and begun to reverse the decline. More stimulus would help, and it will come—not in a largely symbolic jobs bill but in the Keynesian deficits of Obama’s new budget.

Obama refused to play to a public gallery angry at the bailouts that have proved indispensable to saving the financial sector. And he has defied the ill-informed clichés and partisan complaints about deficits. The fiscal outcry will fade as the economy strengthens, and a vindicated president will take the credit—and begin to close the budget gap.

Second, health reform.

more...

http://theweek.com/bullpen/column/200716/Is_Obama_winning

[upi402]

20. what Democratic Party?

Did it come back while I was distracted by the TV "News"? ;)

Sorry, just so frustrated.

[Jennicut]

21. If the Rethugs really think it will hurt the Dems to vote for the bill, then they would not stop it.

They are afraid the public will end up either liking it or being okay with it down the line. And that makes them very worried. The argument that the gov. should not step into matters like health care will be lost.

[flpoljunkie]

27. They would stop it, if they could--but they can't--unless the Dems stop themselves.

Which would be disastrous for the party in November. They need to gut it up, and do the right thing!

The bill can, and will be, made better. Bernie Sanders thinks so, and that's good enough for me.

[Beetwasher]

23. What Else Is New? The WP Is Pushing Repub Propoganda *Yawn*

n/t

[BlueIdaho]

24. Patrick Caddell severed his ties with the Democratic party in 1988.

Douglas Schoen is one of Fox's favorite rented mules. We can expect to see mountains of disinformation as we get closer and closer to a vote. The media will be filled with an endless stream of Tokyo Roses and Lord Haw-Haws along with "deeply concerned" republican operatives warning of the death of the Democratic party if we have the temerity to pass HCR in America.

We may just be be on to something.

[IndianaGreen]

25. Without a Public Option, the Senate bill becomes an abomination

that will be rejected by the American people!

[BlueIdaho]

26. Yeah - you keep saying that.

But since none of this has ever been tried before - no one really know for sure now do they?

[OhioBlue]

40. well, that is your opinion.

mine is different.

I want progress.. and I think this bill is progress.

I think the best thing is to pass the bill.

[Mass]

44. I would not trust Cadwell on this. He is probably with Cantor on this.

Caldwell does not want a PO, far from it.

[flyarm]

28. You bet they will and i am getting this passed throughout my state of Fla,.to all the dems groups

that are organized..

this ought to make every dem who had their vote stolen in 2008 in these states fucking pissed as hell!

it sure pissed me off beyond almost all words!

But i assure you..the dems will not get my vote in Nov if this bill goes through without Medicare for all or a robust Public Options and until they strip the tax on good health care plans!

please feel free to pass this on!

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


James Roosevelt, who was chair of the Rules and Bylaws Committee that decided to dock Michigan and Florida half of their delegates and award 4 of the delegates Clinton won in Michigan to Obama, as well as all of the uncommitted delegates, is the CEO of a health insurance company – Tufts Healthcare. Okay? Got that? The guy who made sure that Obama had the necessary to delegates to win the nomination – even to the point of assigning delegates another candidate won to him arbitrarily – is the CEO of a health insurance firm.
And what Roosevelt wants in a health insurance reform, is a reform that relies entirely upon private insurers. He does not want a public option. He wants a plan like Massachusetts has: http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/04/09/healthcare_lets_build_on_what_we_know/

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[flyarm]

37. here..google it yourself..pretty easy to find!!

oh and I am a Former "elected" delegate in the State of Florida..


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


do some googling..you will find lots on James Roosevelt, Jr. and the DNC Ways and Means committee on the delegate decisions in Michigan and Florida..
http://search.aol.com/aol/search?q=James+Roosevelt%2C+w...

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

http://www.tuftshealthplan.com/visitors/visitors.php?se...

Senior Management Group
Our mission is to set the standard for outstanding quality health care, service, and value. Our dedication to excellence makes us one of the leading health plans in the nation. Meet our senior management group.

James Roosevelt, Jr., President and Chief Executive Officer


James Roosevelt, Jr.
President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Roosevelt joined Tufts Health Plan in 1999 as senior vice president and general counsel and held that position until June 2005, when he became president and chief executive officer. As the general counsel, he presided over the legal department and the company's compliance, privacy and government relations functions.

Before joining Tufts Health Plan, Mr. Roosevelt was the associate commissioner for Retirement Policy for the Social Security Administration in Washington, D.C. He has also served as chief legal counsel for the Massachusetts Democratic Party and as co-chair of the Rules and By-laws Committee of the Democratic National Committee, for which he currently serves on the Change Commission. Mr. Roosevelt spent 10 years as partner at Choate, Hall and Stewart in Boston. He is past chairman of the board of trustees for the Massachusetts Hospital Association, past president of the American Health Lawyers Association and past chairman of the board of trustees for Mount Auburn Hospital. Currently, Mr. Roosevelt serves as chairman of the board of directors for Massachusetts Association of Health Plans, and as a member of the board of directors and co-chair of the policy committee at America’s Health Insurance Plans. He is a member of the Massachusetts Heath Care Quality and Cost Council and the board of directors for the Rhode Island Quality Institute. Mr. Roosevelt is also a board member at Emmanuel College and the Kenneth B. Schwartz Center, and is co-chair of the board of directors for the Tufts Health Care Institute. In November 2008, President-elect Barack Obama appointed Mr. Roosevelt to his transition team to co-chair a review of the Social Security Administration.

Mr. Roosevelt received his J.D. from Harvard Law School and his A.B. with honors in government from Harvard College. He has also completed the Advanced Management Program at Harvard Business School.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03.aspx

The DNC weighs in on Michigan
Posted: Wednesday, March 19, 2008 10:40 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats
From NBC's Mark Murray

DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee co-chairs Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt issued the following memo to members of the committee:

"We have recently been asked whether the legislation as proposed by Michigan would fit within the framework of the National Party’s Delegate Selection Rules. Our review of this legislation indicates that it would, in fact, fit within the framework of the Rules if, it were, passed by the state legislature and used by the Michigan State Democratic Party as the basis of drafting a formal Delegate Selection Plan. If a formal Delegate Selection Plan is received we will convene a meeting of the RBC to consider such a Plan."

[defendandprotect]

41. Wow --!!! MEDICARE FOR ALL is the way to go ... Silence is also an answer!!

The wealthy/corporates put the candidates in place --

this system of bribery is deviant!

[SoxFan]

30. Let me translate

"We couldn't get this done in 1977 or 1993, so we're going to piss and moan on Obama for getting something accomplished".

[DeepBlueC]

32. If we will suffer either way..

it should be easy to decide to do the right thing. And about time.

[depakid]

34. Not sure what anyone expected- abandon popular provisions for unpopular ones

and do it with a very public display of indecisiveness, backroom deals with "popular" industies, and political corruption and the public won't exactly be enthusiastic.

[BlueDemKev]

35. Something worse than passing an "unpopular" bill.....

...is appearing incompetent. If the Democrats fail to pass a health reform bill after spending over a year on it, they will give the signal they are spineless, disorganized, cowardly, and unable to govern. Remember what happened in '94 when Congressional Democrats shelved health care because they were afraid of being beaten at the polls? We not only got beaten, we were massacred.

If Democrats get voted out for passing health care reform because voters have temporarily bought into the right-wing talking points of government-takeover, ram thru a bill, socialism, high taxes, watering the tree of liberty, etc., SO BE IT. I'd rather us lose at the polls for doing the right thing than get voted out for being a coward and doing nothing. I'd love to see the Republicans try to repeal the health care reform bill after it's signed into law. They won't touch it with a 10-ft pole!

[David Zephyr]

36. I wrote this same thing here. It comes down to do we want to control Congress or give Obama applause

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7897564

[Mass]

42. Pat Caldwell, really? Did you become a FOX afficionado?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Caddell

He also denounced Democrats in the House who voted against the Palm Sunday Compromise, which sought to reinstate Terri Schiavo's feeding tube, as "cold blooded". Caddell is a regular guest on Fox News

[Proud Liberal Dem]

45. It will be WORSE if HCR doesn't pass

Plus, like other people have mentioned, the *unpopularity* of HCR includes both people who either think it does too much (i.e. "teabaggers"), as well as progressive activists whom don't believe it does enough or isn't necessary the CORRECT solution (most here at DU), so I see the polling data as less important than the need to do something about the problem of ensuring access to health care for more people and doing something is IMHO politically better for the party in power rather than doing nothing.
I don't see HCR in its current form having the kind of detrimental effects that some people believe it will but, no matter what, the status quo cannot be allowed to stand and we can't keep delaying until we get a "perfect" bill that we have the votes to pass NOW.
There's definitely room for improvement but single-payer (and probably even the PO or Medicare expansion) is probably not going to pass right now. Passing the current bill into law will, however, provide momentum for future reform IMHO- either it's going to suck SO badly that people will support efforts to change it to make it more palatable or people are going to see the benefits of what has been done and demand more (which will be unlikely to be stopped even by the Republicans). Either scenario should provide adequate momentum for future change. Additionally, these changes, most of which are positive, will still not be enough for everybody and will still demand additional reforms.
Whatever it does (or doesn't do), more people will ultimately be covered and the insurance companies are going to face tremendous pressure to reform themselves or face extinction because, as I've observed, people whom buy a product (or are forced to do so) will inevitably DEMAND that that product does what it says it will do and if it doesn't they WILL complain and, in regards to health care, then government might *reluctantly* have to step in with even more regulations and/or institute a REAL "takeover" of the health care system (i.e. single payer).
If you doubt that people will be upset (at the insurance companies) and demand more reforms if and when they don't get the coverage that they pay for, then maybe you might want to check out what it's like at customer service centers at any given store when the products that they CHOOSE to buy don't work like they should.
People will NOT stand for a cr***y product but they can't stand at all if they're sick and too poor to afford access to health care in our current system.

[cliffordu]

46. Same point Boner was making just the other day....

[RBInMaine]

47. Once the lies are debunked and people see the good, this will turn. They DO like most PIECES of it.

[Hansel]

48. Run away! Run away! Retreat! Retreat!

Not.

The Republicans are going to attack with BS no matter what the Dems do? When are the people on the left side of the spectrum going to wake up from the brainwashing and figure that out?

Oh no, someone is going to campaign against us if we do that. Freeze into a fetal position and whimper. Yeah, that 'll impress them.