What happens if this bill goes down?

[Dawgs]

[FSogol]

1. Other: Everyone will whine about something else.

:shrug:

[Jennicut]

2. Well, Clinton did not even get as far as Obama did. He lost Congress but not the Presidency.

But that was the mid 1990's. The media is worse now.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Honestly, I don't think it'll have that much impact on elections either way.

I think we're all blowing its significance out of proportion. Here's the list of issues that will be relevant in the 2010 and 2012 elections: Unemployment rate, jobs, economy, and currently-unforeseen issue #4.

[Uncle Joe]

4. If the bill goes down because it doesn't include a strong public option or expansion of Medicare.

A clear line will have been drawn distinguishing the two major political parties as has occurred in the past when great progressive change occurred.

This will fire up the Democratic Base; which constitutes a larger percentage of the nation than Republicans.

So long as the two parties inhabit that off kilter "middle ground," the nation will continually be pulled to the right at least in regards to law and power and when the people ultimately become sick of that draconian dynamic, chaos hits with the possibility of full blown fascism taking over.

The Democratic Party must start pulling back in order to center the nation.

As for 2010 if Medicare were expanded, I believe a general cycle of losses suffered by the Presidential Party in the first Congressional race after the Presidential Election will be broken.

Other than that scenario I believe the Democrats will lose some seats in November regardless, 2012 is long way off but I believe if the current bill is passed, the President will take a major credibility hit from the Republicans and the corporate media.

Thanks for the thread, Dawgs.

[alc]

5. we move on with our lives

unlike if it passes in which case it will consume us for the next 5-10 years
* lawsuits about the mandate
* lawsuits about states opting out
* people complaining that hcr made their rates go up (whether or not that's true)
* people complaining that it's not helping them yet since parts don't take effect for a few years
* people complaining that there's no PO
* governors complaining about transfer of medicare payments to states
* doctors complaining about medicare cuts (and probably yearly doc-fix bills to negate the cuts with republicans saying "we told you so. it's nowhere near deficit neutral now.")
* insurance and pharma companies complaining about anything they can
* years of finding out what is really in the bill and how all the parts relate & interact (immigration, abortion, and general implementation)

And that's if things go the way Reid, Pelosi, and the CBO project. If health care rates go up more than expected, or more doctors stop taking medicare, or co-pays or premiums go up or subsidies don't keep up, or any number of other things, you can count on republicans wanting to repeal it and democrats wanting to fix it but not willing to do more than talk since a fix would mean more votes like they're going through now. They are using optimistic projections and some tricks to get under the magical $900 billion (or $800 billion or $1 trillion) mark, so it's unlikely that things will be better than the projections, but very possible that it will be worse.

[subterranean]

6. If the bill goes down (not that I expect or hope it will)...

but if it does, I think we should push for the Sanders amendment as a stand-alone bill. Take the money that would have been paid per person under the current bill and give it to the states to implement their own reforms, as long as they can meet the goals of universal coverage and affordability, and give them a deadline. States like California might choose single payer, while more conservative states could go with a private-sector solution. The states would not be required to do anything, though. They could choose to keep the status quo, but then they wouldn't get the Federal funds.

Maybe I'm naive, but I think this approach could lead to better (albeit more fragmented) reforms than we'll get with the current bill, and would be harder to oppose.

[frazzled]

7. 35 million people lose a chance to get health insurance

And many millions more will potentially lose their current insurance, go bankrupt, or die. Because that is what will happen if we let insurance companies and the health industry continue in their present state.

I personally don't give a #&@! what happens politically if this bill passes or doesn't pass. It's about people's lives, people's pocketbooks, and the nation's economic stability. Politics is irrelevant.

[RaleighNCDUer]

10. Politics is NEVER irrelevant, and a giveaway to the insurance companies

is NOT going to help those 35 million. And, having insurance if you are too poor for the deductibles and co-pays, is worse than useless because then you are paying premiums for something you cannot use.

This bill WILL do more damage than good.

And it is looking like I will be able to say 'I told you so' in about 5 years.

Remember I said this.

[frazzled]

11. No, there are times politics is truly irrelevant

A vote on war is one of those times. If so many Democrats hadn't worried about the politics of looking "weak" back in 2002 when the Iraq War Resolution came up, we wouldn't have shocked and awed Baghdad, killed untold Iraqis, and thousands of Americans. A vote on war should never be based on political considerations. It's a vote that can't be fixed or changed in the future.

This vote on health care reform is another one.

And you are dead wrong: NOT passing this bill will do more damage than good. If you like the insurance companies excluding more people, dropping more people when they are sick, capriciously raising premiums and paying for less ... then oppose this bill. But you will be morally wrong.

[RaleighNCDUer]

12. This bill gives insurance companies billions of dollars with which they

can fight every one of those 'benefits'. If you think they won't, if you think this bill will be fixed in reconcilliation, you are deluded.

I think the bill will pass. You will find out.

[yurbud]

13. I'm still holding out hope that the Democrats are doing some kind of Jedi mind trick

and will improve the bill at the last minute.

Think about it: only an idiot would really think the Republicans would support real health care reform that took money out of the pockets of insurance companies, and if the debate started with single payer, a public option, or opening medicare to all, enough Blue Dogs and DLCers would have joined the GOP to sustain a filibuster and kill the bill. Likewise, the media would not have been kind to such a bill and would have parroted the GOP talking points about the evils of socialism.

So what do you do? Get over the initial hurdles with a bill that is nearly identical to one signed into law by a Republican governor. Republicans will protest it anyway, but swing voters might notice their hypocrisy, which would limit the effectiveness of GOP protests.

Once the bill got past the procedural hurdles to the point that it could be done with reconciliation, it still does no good to telegraph the punch, but it does help to get the public to visibly ''twist their arms'' with ever growing demands for a public option.

Then if they substitute a strong public option, Medicare buy in, or hell, even single payer at the last second, the protests of the right and their parrots in the media won't matter. The public will get it, and thank the Democrats for it at the polls in November.

It would have a side benefit as far as all the money insurance companies threw at Democrats to sway their vote. The Democrats would get to keep that money, and what could the insurance companies say? That they expected a quid pro quo? A second benefit would be that Democrats could honestly say their vote on this could not be bought in spite of all the money that was showered on them and it could reset the relationship between pols and lobbyists.

This scenario would require a lot of coordination and discipline, which the Democrats as a party rarely demonstrated apart from voting for the worst excrement of the Bush administration, and maybe the current talk of a public option is just shining us on until they pass a corporate give away--but maybe, just maybe, these aren't the droids you're looking for.

Move along.

Move along.

[pampango]

8. Nothing on HCR happens this year. Repubs mop up in November -

"bad economy, Democrats waste a year on HCR instead of jobs and can't get anything done even with the White House and big majorities in Congress, victory has a thousand fathers (mothers) while defeat is an orphan, the repubs killed what must have been a bad bill (even though few understand it) so they get credit.

The "good" news is that republican gains in November will kill any HCR (except for the ineffectual rw talking points reform) so that over time the health care situation will continue to deteriorate. Maybe in 2013, 2015 or sometime after that the political "stars" will line up again and we can make another effort to get "real" HCR.

[ericgtr]

9. Either way the Dems are going to lose seats

So take what you can while we have the ability with reconciliation because this is probably the last chance we'll have during Obama's presidency. And to the Republicans who are "warning" us? Well they can go suck on a lemon because that's about all they are good for.