HCR Votes to spare?

[Perky]

House Democrats officially gained two and lost two on Thursday as they continued their painstaking zigzag toward 216 votes and final passage of a sweeping health care overhaul, now likely on Sunday.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/44376-1.html

Leaders got two pieces of good news, with retiring Science and Technology Chairman Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.) and freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), who voted "no" on the original House bill, announcing they would back reform this time around. But those gains were offset by the losses of Reps. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) and Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) who flipped their previous support to opposition.

Lynch, in particular, was a blow to reform supporters, since the former union president had not been on any watch lists of potential vote flippers. He ripped the Senate-passed measure as a “surrender” to insurance companies, and he held fast to his opposition even after a meeting at the White House with President Barack Obama on Thursday afternoon.

Though Obama failed to sway Lynch, House Democrats were buoyed by the whip in chief’s decision on Thursday to postpone his planned Asia jaunt until later this year so he can be on hand to help round up support for his signature domestic initiative.

The release of the final bill text — and estimates from the Congressional Budget Office — gave handfuls of other undecided lawmakers some homework to do, as many on the fence continued to reserve judgment until reading through the language and scoring. But the CBO’s deficit reduction projections — a whopping $1.2 trillion in the second decade — had some former opponents encouraged. “The numbers sound promising, but I want to see how we got to the numbers,” said Rep. Brian Baird (D-Wash.), who opposed the House-passed bill.

The arithmetic for Democratic leaders is simple: If they can hold on to all 216 of the Democrats who voted for House passage and are still serving, they win. But rounding up those supporters has proved tricky. And they need to offset every defection by converting someone who voted against the original measure.

Rules Chairwoman Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) dismissed the threat of minimal defections. “We’ve got a surplus. We’ve got some spares,” she said. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) likewise projected confidence, telling reporters at a midday press conference, “We feel very strong about where we are.”

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Maybe, but I guess you say it is going to be a squeaker to pressure the holdouts. who are going to vote last anyway because they will be cowering in a corner of the cloakroom room being simultaneously whipped and coddled.

[Jennicut]

1. It is holding at 36 nos then. We need to flip a few more to get a cushion.

It is very, very tight.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/85693-whip-watch-the-hills-survey-of-house-dems-positions-on-healthcare
Lynch was a no on this list before his announcement so that makes me feel a bit better. But is is close

[DaveinMD]

2. I think it will pass

by two voters. They'll get 217 instead of 216.

[pampango]

4. If all the "no"s (36) hold, the bill passes by 2. There are still 48 undecided so 47 of them have

to vote "yes" for the bill to pass. That doesn't leave too much to chance. Either some of the "nos" have to change or every one of the "undecided"s has to be won over.

Among the 38 "undecideds", 19 are Blue Dogs, 4 are Progressives, the rest belong to neither caucus. Winning practically all of the BD's over may be really difficult. Of the BD's who have declared so far there are 13 "yes" (leaning/likely), 22 "no" (firm/likely/leaning) and 19 "undecided". Getting the Progressives to switch to "yes" may not be as difficult since the other 75 are all voting for the bill, but almost all the "undecided" Blue Dogs and others could be a real challenge.

[Jennicut]

5. Yes, we have a better shot to get the progressives on board.

They are not gutless like many blue dogs and might like some things about the bill.

[Tippy]

3. Some are holding out because of fear....some might want to be the last to get on board

This will be an Historical vote. I had a hunch Congressman Gordon would in the end vote yes...He singned on late yesterday, Congressman Tanner followed the same patern as Gordon so I look for him to switch, both are retiring...Lincon Davis on the other had comes from a strong Rep. Dist, he is running, so he may well stand pat. Congressman Cooper has been on for some time.

[NYC_SKP]

6. The holdouts and grandstanders. I just want to slap 'em.

I hope their constituents primary them and their seats go to progressives with more sense.

[HughMoran]

7. "simultaneously whipped and coddled."

:evilgrin: