Charlie Cook: The Republicans are going to have a good year

[bigdarryl]

he's predicting any where from 35 to 40 net gain seats in the Congress. Quote the republicans are more motivated than the Democrats this year.Was on Bill Press show yesterday

[mwb970]

1. I seriously doubt it.

What is Fred Barnes' prediction? Billy Kristol?

http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/37562

[bigdarryl]

2. I agree I don't believe this shit that the Democrats won't be motivated come Nov.

especially if these rethugs talk about repealing health care if they take back Congress. I know the pundits keep talking about its the economy that is number one but I think there's a possibility it might get better by then

[daa]

8. In October when it is time to sign up for benefits

and workers see how much their premiums are going up because of these changes that did NOTHING to address costs, and when they find out they have "CADILLAC" plans, they will not bb voting for dems. Where do you think the billion dollars it is going to cost AT&T will come from?

[Ikonoklast]

15. 2018 before any 'Cadillac' tax. affects anyone.

The thresholds were also raised dramatically, most working people won't be touched by this tax.

But, keep throwing s**t, something might stick.

The fringe left is just as bad as the right on this.

[WhiteTara]

17. it's almost as if they circle so far that they

meet in the middle of insanity.

[Kolesar]

35. Smells like a RW talking point to me...eom

[mwb970]

18. This doesn't square with what I've heard about the plan, sorry.

But it does sound vewwy vewwy scawwy.

[msallied]

31. FAIL (eom)

[Bitwit1234]

20. They are soooooooooo desperate they have to make their own ratings.

[DCBob]

3. Is that enough to take the majority?

If not then it wont have much impact.

[Joe Bacon]

4. It's a long way from March to November!

And if the Republic Party continues on it's asshole course, Cook and his fellow Republican apologists are going to get a very rude shock on November 3rd!

[Kolesar]

10. Let us hope that more jobs are created...

...as is the trend right now. That will change the perspective in the next seven months.

[Joe Bacon]

19. The Republicans are dissolving like an Alka Seltzer tablet.

They are becoming ass-holey-er with each passing day. Every time Palin opens her mouth, she loses another 100,000 votes!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. He's probably right. Without HCR would have been worse.

Our recent revitalization is VERY important to slow the momentum of what had the possibility of being worse than 1994.

But we will have a rough year either way.

[brewens]

6. We will see how well the wack jobs motivate Democrats though.

If people really are glad the HCR passed and hear more good proposals to improve on it, what the teabaggers are doing will backfire.
We had a situation at work where a guy was knocking himself out to get a promotion. Doing everything he could to impress the bosses from our HQ when they were around. Only thing is, he's an idiot. All of our local crew conspired to shoot him down. I can see the same thing happening with the Republicans this year.

[chill_wind]

7. They certainly don't deserve to. n/t

[Kdillard]

9. We shall see..

[Vinca]

11. I still think the teabaggers will split the vote.

The Republicans have somehow convinced themselves that the baggers will vote for them.

[Cosmocat]

23. The teabaggers will come home in November ...

their chaos is going to occur in the primaies ...

Who is going to run better in the general, JD Hayeworth or John McCain?

That is going to be the issue. Not a chance some teabagger idiot is going to punch a democratic ticket in the fall, and they are going to vote R to keep some america hating antichrist liberal from getting elected ...

But, the independents are going to be faced with more choices between lunatics like Hayesworth instead of more moderate R like McCain ...

That is where the Tea Baggers are going to give a little outside of what they take ...

[KingFlorez]

12. More like 5-10 seats

If they even pull that off. All the threats going around aren't going to motivate voters.

[BeyondGeography]

13. He's going to have to backtrack

The Thugs will have us plenty fired up come November.

[SoFlaJet]

16. I agree

I'm making sure everyone in MY family gets out to vote. I remember 1998 going to my polling station and it was crazy there and I said "ah forget it, it's too crowded" that will never happen to me again.

[Bravo Zulu]

14. That's a scary thought!

[ClarkUSA]

21. Larry Sabato, who has a more accurate record than Cook, predicts a +27 House gain for Republicans.

Sabato also predicts a +7 gain in the Senate and a +7 gain in Governors. His advice for Democrats? We have to "counterattack" the GOP:

"Whether 2010 will be another such historic election that restores the GOP to House control will depend on what happens in the next seven months – voter reaction to health care reform and other Obama administration initiatives, the state of national security and the ongoing wars in the Middle East, and most importantly, the progress made in reviving the struggling economy.

<snip>

Playing good defense is an obvious necessity for the Democrats this fall. But their ultimate success at maintaining control of the House could come down to their ability to counterattack and pick off enough seats to offset at least some of the expected Republican gains.

<snip>

Any Democratic House incumbent with a close election campaign in their recent past, problematic terrain to run on, and a controversial vote or two on their record can expect a tough reelection fight in 2010."

He goes on to list the 28 Democrats and 35 Republicans "marginals": http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[ProSense]

22. Charlie Cook is a tool. The Democrats

won more than 30 seats in 2006 and that was nearly unprecedented, and largely driven by opposition to the Iraq war followed by Bush's dismal performance.

The Republicans have history on their side. The party that controls the White House almost always loses seats in the midterm election. Over the past 65 years, the president’s party has lost an average of 24 House seats in the midterm elections. The president’s party has gained seats in only two of 16 midterm elections since the war.

link

What is going to lead the Republicans, whose polling numbers are abysmal, to defy history and possibly gain the most seats ever in a mid-term election?

[Jennicut]

24. They won't. They had an incredible year in 1994 but Congress had been controlled by Dems for a long

time-way more then 12 years when Dems took control in 2006.

An article from October is still relevent right now:

The situation was much different in ’94. Then, voters still had fairly pleasant memories of the most recent Republican era. They’d re-elected Ronald Reagan in a 49-state landslide in 1984 and elected George H.W. Bush in another landslide in 1988. And recently as the spring of 1991, just after the first Gulf War, Bush had been sitting on a 91 percent approval rating. The G.O.P.’s defeat in the 1992 wasn’t a wholesale rejection of Reagan-Bush philosophy; it was a response to a nasty recession.

This made the public of 1994 far more receptive to the G.O.P. than the electorate now is. And Republicans helped their cause by unveiling their “Contract with America,” a document that few Americans read but that helped create the impression that Republicans were interested in more than blind opposition to the president.

There was also the realignment factor. About a dozen Southern House seats that had been ripe for a G.O.P. takeover for decades all flipped at once in ’94. In terms of ideology, these districts were already very conservative and Republican-friendly. Bill Clinton’s alliance with Democratic liberals in Congress convinced voters in these districts, who had inherited Democratic allegiances from their parents and grandparents but who had been siding with Republican presidential candidates for years, that it was time to vote a straight ticket for the G.O.P.

A much better model for the ’10 midterms can probably be found in 1982, Reagan’s first midterm. As with the G.O.P. now, the Democratic label was in disrepute then, a victim of the excesses of the New Deal/Great Society consensus that had defined the party—and governed the country—for several decades. But thanks to a brutal recession (unemployment hit 10 percent in the fall of ’82) and the natural order of midterms, Democrats were still able to pick up 26 House seats in the fall of ’82.

Something like this seems likely next fall. Unemployment will probably still be high and voters will be inclined to send Obama and his party a message. A 20-seat gain for the G.O.P. is hardly unfathomable. But that’s half of what they’ll need to replicate the feat of ’94. It will be an adjustment, not a revolution.

http://www.observer.com/5615/midterm-backlash-think-1982-not-1994

I think they will pick up a little over 20 seats. Not 40, not anywhere near the 52 seats Newt and co picked up.

[Enthusiast]

26. For once I hope you are right.

As in correct.

[Enthusiast]

25. Let's prove him wrong!

Aren't they bad enough when they're out of power? We must mount an offense.

[rasputin1952]

27. From what I've seen, the GOP is going to be a Ghost Party...

after the Mid-Term.

Very few people see the GOP in anything resembling a positive light. The recent tactics have driven almost everyone with even an ounce of compassion, much less Common Sense, from their ranks.

Incredibly, on top of the disaster they have created, they have written and signed their own death warrant as a viable party.

Good riddance to the clowns.

[LiberalFighter]

28. Cook fails to see the comparison

1994 Democrats were dealing with problems in the White House, House Bank and other issues.

What negatives did the Republicans endure during the same period leading up to the election. Nil

1994 Democrats didn't have any major legislation passed leading up to the election.


Any losses will be minimal. With any luck Republicans will suffer some upsets.

[chieftain]

29. Cook has always been able to foresee good news for the GOP

and explain why it didn't happen after the votes were counted.

[Tippy]

30. Charlie Cook cooking the books once again.....n/t

[msallied]

32. Those statistics are very Baghdad Bob bent to them...

[opihimoimoi]

33. The Case for a DEM WIN / Minimum Loss is STRONGER than HATE DIVISION DELUSION

The Democratic Party's Positiveness will OUT TRUMP The GOP's HATE/STAGNATE

The DEMs Have a Better Mode which is UnAvailable to the GOP due to their Locked Position on many MOOT CRAP and addiction to Negative Traits...giving our DEMs Better ODDS.

[FrenchieCat]

34. Write to that Hack!

CONTACT PAGE: http://www.cookpolitical.com/contact