Playing the Long Game - Democratic Underground

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Playing the Long Game

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=playing_the_long_game

Playing the Long Game

Obama realizes that transformative presidents look past day-to-day disasters.

Paul Waldman | March 30, 2010 | web only

Playing the Long Game

(White House/Pete Souza)

On March 4, 2008, Hillary Clinton won surprise victories in primary elections in Texas and Ohio. At first, it seemed to be a momentous shift of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, making Barack Obama's victory seem not so inevitable after all, as some had believed it to be since he won the Iowa caucus two months before.

But it quickly became apparent that Clinton's popular-vote wins were almost meaningless. In the contests that took place that day, Obama had actually garnered more delegates than Clinton. His march to the nomination continued unabated. By executing a carefully planned strategy of delegate accumulation and worrying less about the campaign's daily ups and downs, Obama bested a more seasoned rival to become the Democratic candidate.

That ability -- to see the entire contour of a lengthy political battle -- may be the most important factor in Obama's success. It got him to the White House, and it enabled him to achieve the most meaningful piece of social legislation in generations.

Remember when August's town hall meetings on health-care reform changed everything? Remember when it all hinged on Max Baucus' "Gang of Six"? Remember when Olympia Snowe held the fate of reform in her hands? Remember when Scott Brown's election killed any chance the bill had? At the time, all these things seemed so important that nothing else mattered. But what really mattered was the willingness to look beyond them, to see each as one step in a long journey -- obstacles that could be maneuvered around if necessary. Looking back, none seem as significant as they did then. But it took a particular kind of calm to realize that at the time.

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The long road made many progressives worry that they couldn't tell where Obama's heart really was on health care. Did he truly support the public option as he said? If he was willing to bargain it away, what else would he compromise on? But the truth is that Obama has been remarkably consistent -- not on the details, which were always open to negotiation -- but on the idea that he could lean left or right for a moment along the way, so long as he kept moving forward.

Einstein famously said that politics is harder than physics. That's because there are so many different variables at play, and prior events aren't necessarily predictive of the future. Choose one strategic path over another, and you set in motion a hundred reactions from allies and opponents. Whatever else Obama accomplishes over his time in office, he will have put in place at least one major policy that will affect the country for decades. If all goes well, it will be refined and improved over that time. Barring an unlikely repeal, the health-care issue will take place on the field Obama sowed for many presidencies to come. When we debate health-care changes to the system 20 years from now, we’ll be debating changes to the system this president put in place. Because he was able to keep his eyes focused into the distance, Obama will have changed the trajectory of the country in a way most presidents never do.