Okay, I was wrong. No fait-acompli HCR polling boost

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I expected a large swing to favorable as soon as the bill was passed... essentially 7-8% of the public flipping which would translate into a large 15% swing in margin.

But the post-passage polls I've seen have flat or eroding post-passage support.

It will probably get a little more popular over time.

At least people do not want the bill they dislike to be repealed. (That pug strategy was always a non-starter.)

In other news, Barack Obama is more popular as a result of getting a bill passed that people don't like.

This leads to dueling CNN polls. HCR unpopular at 42-56%, but "Obama approval up in wake of health care victory"

But I don't doubt that they are both accurate. (Bill passage firmed up his Dem approval numbers and some voters just like victories, even for things they don't like.)



http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/03/29/cnn-poll-americans-divided-on-repealing-health-care-law/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/03/30/cnn-poll-obama-approval-up-in-wake-of-health-care-victory/

[ShortnFiery]

1. The doors on this "Trojan Horse" haven't even BEGUN to swing open yet.

The worst is yet to come. :(

[dionysus]

7. .

:cry:

[babylonsister]

2. Quinnipiac found about a 4-5 point bump in support for the health care bill itself, 8 pt. for Obama

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/03/rounding_up_the_post-passage_h.html

snip//

Quinnipiac found about a 4-5 point bump in support for the health care bill itself, although a larger bump (8 points) in Obama's handling of the issue. Obama's overall approval rating, on the other hand, was little changed. ... What's a bit more surprising is that Quinnipiac also found a decent-sized bump in approval of the Democrats in Congress: from a pathetically low 30 percent to a not-quite-as-awful 36 percent. And most of the bump came from independent voters, among whom approval increased from 19 percent to 33.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Thanks. Hadn't seen that one.

[Jennicut]

3. Obama's #'s with his base have improved.

And that means the enthusiasm gap has improved as we get closer to the 2010 midterms. His #'s with independents have gone up slightly as well. He has stayed flat with Rethugs, which is no surprise.
His #'s before the midterms will improve if he keeps on a path of showing strength (like he did with the recess appts.) But I did not expect the polling #'s to jump 5 to 10 points. Something like HCR takes time to see the effects of and people are literally waiting to see if it makes things better or worse for them. I think it will do neither frankly, for many.
The truth is, the economy is still the # 1 issue.

[vi5]

5. Look the thing about this is....

..that most people are not going to see a benefit from this. That doesn't mean it's not a good bill, and it doesn't mean it shouldn't have been passed. But the fact is that if you add up all the people this will directly impact, it really is not a sizable number of people enough for it to be a calculable political victory. A

And then when you factor in the aspects which don't go into effect for a few years, the number of people is even fewer.

Most people don't have a chronically ill child who can't get insurance coverage (for the record I am a person with a chronically ill child but am lucky enough to have good insurance...but I understand and see first hand how important this is).

Most people don't reach their annual or lifetime capss or even come close (for the record I reach my annual cap by January each year because of my son, but I am in a distinct minority).

Even if you assume every single solitary one of the 50 or so million people who are uninsured who may now become insured eventually want the help, think they need the help, think this is a benefit to them, and want to pay for insurance, that's less than 25% of the population.

This issue and this bill is a moral victory because it was the right thing to do. But it's far from a political victory, especially in this climate. I definitely think that the misinformation on cable news about this doesn't help things, but I still believe that even if it were all reported accurately that most people will not feel or see that this is something that is going to help or affect them directly in a positive way, or at least not enough for this to bring about a groundswell of political support and appreciation.

[OHdem10]

6. CNN's polls have been questionable at times. One glaring example

In an effort to boost Bush when he ran the first time, CNN
handily pulled out a poll which they breathlessly repeated
over and over. According to their poll Bush was ahead 20
points in NH. Bush lost NH. Brian Lamb,C_span, who is the
most neutral person even raised his eyebrows at that one
and commented--where did they get this poll????

They use "polls" to push an agenda and IMO this has increased
as they have taken a more RW stance in their reporting.

[Teaser]

8. the problem is this: public opinion doesn't exist

for the most part, this is a true statement. There are certain political drives lurking below the surface of the average American. But it takes questions asked by pollsters to crystallize those opinions. And the opinions remain ephemeral. After a bit, when it decrystallizes, the same question can be asked in a different fashion and evoke an entirely opposite response.

The variance in the results and their internal incoherence reflects this: Most don't like the bill. Yet most don't want it repealed. Most think it increases the size of government. Yet most also think that the government needs to do more to rein in insurance companies.

These positions are incoherent. The only thing they have in common is that they are grounded in the cynicism and selfishness of the average person who thinks: "I am cynical about government. But there are forces arrayed against me and I need help."

The relative extent to which the first sentiment vs. the extant to which the second sentiment is aroused by a question will determine what kind of answer you get.

It really reflects a fundamental defect in human cognition, when you think about it.

[iceman66]

9. Part of the problem is

that the corporate media has been actively trying to counter any positive impact from the health care bill by agressively promoting the teabaggers and their specious arguments.

[Teaser]

10. that wouldn't matter if most humans were capable of logical thought

though.