The economy and the 2010 election (with graphs!)

[jefferson_dem]

The economy and the 2010 election (with graphs!)

As we edge closer and closer to the midterms and people like me keep saying that the main thing that matters is the economy; both its absolute performance over the past 14 months and its apparent trends. But why say it when you can graph it? With the help of Dylan Matthews, I pulled together a few different ways of looking at the Obama administration's economic record. We'll start with the one that matters most to people: Job growth (source: Steve Benen).



Next, housing prices. Note that this graph, which uses Case-Shiller data, runs back to 1988. You're looking for the performance at the right edge, beginning in January of 2010 (Source: Calculated Risk).



The Dow Jones Industrial Average:



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http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/04/the_economy_of_the_2010_electi.html

[Turbineguy]

1. Yeah, but....

all those improvements are a signs of a socialist plot.:evilgrin:

[Ozymanithrax]

2. What you don't show is what people feel and believe about the economy...

If people feel the economy is still in Dante territory, it will drive the election as an issue.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Ah...the "mental recession"...

True. It's beyond amazing to me that a majority of the American public still disapproves of Obama in terms of the economy. There's lots of misinformation out there and it will take a while for reality to sink in. Of course, this also requires effective communication. With the healthcare squabbling behind us, I suspect the Administration will be focusing like a laser beam on the economy.

[Ozymanithrax]

4. The big fight in the media is going to be opposed versions of reality...

We will have to wait and see which version they accept.

[Grand Taurean]

5. They must do so.

[Phx_Dem]

6. We're doomed.

:7

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Gas prices are the devastating factor heading toward the midterm

They will soar this summer and that attaches to Obama's approval rating. I posted that months ago on several sites, when all the focus was on health care and how it could impact the midterm.

The problem in 2010 is the recession will be winding down just enough for the banks and speculators to think they can shove gas prices toward $3.50 or even $4, and that's a variable that will lance the party in power. It will be a major topic all summer, with simple reference points, and the eventual drift downward in price will be lower than the rise, and too late to save the midterm. We've had 18 months of gas prices dramatically lower than they would have been, had the economy been somewhat normal.

I'm so numbed I don't even have the energy to handicap race to race. We benefited from numerous situational factors in '06 and '08 but this time they are lined up against us.