NC: Marshall might be ignored, but she starts with wide primary lead

[ccharles000]

In recent weeks, I have repeatedly marveled at the way in which national Democrats and the national media have treated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall as a minor-league candidate. Few journalists have been as determined to ignore her as the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who did it again this week by writing that managing to answer an entire question about Burr’s re-election prospects without once mentioning Marshall. “My guess is that Democrats wind up with Cal Cunningham as their candidate,” he wrote.

That would be an acceptable statement if he at least acknowledged that it would require Cunningham to succeed at beating Marshall, which a new PPP poll (conducted for the Marshall campaign) finds would require quite a come-from-behind effort: The Secretary of State leads the primary with 42% of the vote, with attorney Kenneth Lewis getting 7% (14% among African-American voters) and Cunningham receiving 5%.

As with any internal survey, this should be taken with a grain of salt. Also, these numbers do not show that Marshall has the race locked-up: Given her prominent position, her failure to get to 50% against two low-profile opponents suggests she could be vulnerable. Yet, it’s hard not to portray her as the clear frontrunner to get the nod whether or not Cunningham runs (especially since he would have to fight with Lewis for undecided voters’ attention). This gets to what I fail to understand about the DSCC’s attitude: Even if we grant that others would be stronger general election candidates, the odds that Democrats will have to target Burr with Marshall are significant enough that telegraphing distrust is a bizarre strategy.

http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/28/week-end-polls/

[ccharles000]

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