Democrats, Republicans–and the Sunscreen Party

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http://motherjones.com/environment/2010/04/climate-desk-politics-climate-change


California and Florida lose congressional seats. Colorado hoards its water. Iowa crops wilt. How a warmer climate could roil the political landscape.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration isn't known for its political forecasts, but last spring, the agency quietly released a 40-page study that should give a jolt to any campaign strategist who hopes to work in the next dozen election cycles. Simply called "Scenarios for 2035," the report never once mentions voting trends or red-blue divides, but it does explain how changes in climate could quickly and radically reshape American politics–upending the power balance in Congress, scuttling traditional paths to the White House, and igniting new fights over natural and financial resources.

The NOAA report joins a variety of other studies, from the government and from environmental groups, that suggest politicians as a species may need to adapt to climate change as fast as polar bears. Consider the ways the electoral environment could be affected: Both major political parties could see their power bases erode as Americans, responding to warming temperatures and rising seas, flee the Republican-dominated South and Democratic-friendly coasts. Drought in the Southwest could reignite water wars between California suburbanites and Rocky Mountain swing voters. In Iowa, where floodwaters will rise more often and corn yields could suffer from heat waves and insect plagues, wanna-be presidential contenders could end up talking FEMA as much as the Farm Bill.

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Mass migrations have historically triggered power shifts in American politics—to the West in the late 1800s, to the Sun Belt in the 1970s, and today to the booming Southwest. Forecasters say climate change could have similar effects. In two of the three climate scenarios NOAA outlines for 2035, the decades-long trend of Americans moving to the Southeast and to both coasts ebbs, due largely to hotter summers, rising waters and increased hurricane activity. In the more extreme of the two–what is essentially the "no mitigation" scenario, which is to say, the federal government makes little effort to curb carbon emissions–northern state populations swell 20 percent by 2035, while California and Florida each lose millions of people. Other analysts expect urban populations to expand, due to both an influx of immigrants fleeing foreign countries ravaged by climate change, and to former suburb-dwellers who find many of their signature comforts imperiled. (Playing catch in the yard is less appealing if there's no water for the grass.)

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In two of the three NOAA scenarios, the US economy never quite recovers as the world shifts away from fossil fuels and toward low-carbon energy sources. At some point, many experts predict, America's inability to make this transition could make climate adaptation itself a dominant political issue. After years of demanding little action on global warming, voters could suddenly and angrily urge their leaders to shower government aid on the farmers, coast-dwellers and other populations suffering under the effects of a changing climate. Their cries could form the basis of a new populist movement, rooted in poorer and middle-class voters who seethe at their political leaders' inattention to their problems and lament an American Dream gone awry. Ridder suggests those folks could call themselves the Sunscreen Party.
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Read it on Slate today.

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