"CBO: Stimulus saved or created as many as 1.6M jobs"

[Clio the Leo]

Note, this is the idependant, fiscally conservative, CBO, NOT the WH.

CBO: Stimulus saved or created as many as 1.6M jobs
By Michael O'Brien - 12/01/09 10:09 AM ET
The stimulus bill enacted earlier this year has resulted in as many as 1.6 million jobs saved or created this fall, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Monday evening.

The nonpartisan CBO said in a legally mandated report that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) had resulted in between 600,000 and 1.6 million jobs for the U.S. economy that wouldn't have existed in the absence of the stimulus.

Additionally, the CBO said, gross domestic product (GDP) was as much as 3.2 percent higher than it would have been in the absence of the stimulus. CBO Director Douglas Elmondorf wrote on his official blog:

Looking at the actual amounts spent so far (where identifiable) and estimates of the other effects of ARRA on spending and revenues, CBO has estimated the law’s impact on employment and economic output using evidence about how previous similar policies have affected the economy and various mathematical models that represent the workings of the economy. On that basis, CBO estimates that in the third quarter of calendar year 2009, an additional 600,000 to 1.6 million people were employed in the United States, and real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.2 percent to 3.2 percent higher, than would have been the case in the absence of ARRA.

The White House had claimed in its own estimate of the recovery act's impact that the stimulus bill had saved or created roughly 640,000 jobs since going into effect earlier this year.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/69923-cbo-stimulus-saved-or-created-as-many-as-16m-jobs

[Thrill]

1. Damn that hurts the Republicans

[Whisp]

4. and so many assholes here too.

they would rather have bad news and pin it on Obama than some good news and have to stay silent for a while.

[Aramchek]

6. how sweet it is!

;)

[Cha]

10. Yeah, they're hurtin'

alright. That was one of their poutrage du jour's ..now they have the Afghanistan Crisis that will keep them in permanent outrage .

[impik]

16. Yes, and facts are known to be in the tank for Obama

[Ozymanithrax]

2. The problem with this information is nobody really reads it.

The media says we lost 600,000 jobs. The unemployment rate goes up. It would be more accurate to show a graph that displays how many jobs were created and how many were lost. A Net loss of jobs doesn't mean they weren't created. But the media simply says we lost jobs, as if jobs were a bag of pennies with a rip that causes pennies/jobs to leak out.

Until we see a turning point where more jobs are created than lost, these things mean exactly dick to the public who will never read them.

[HamdenRice]

3. Or alternatively a chart showing how many jobs would have been lost without the stimulus

That's really the source of this number.

[Robbins]

5. Economy

Without the Stimulas and the GM and Crysler bailouts the economy and Unemployment would be a lot worse.
I know the MSM doesn't want to say that but It Is the reality.Just like reality Is Obama can't magiclly
repair all the damage Bush and Republicans did without rasing taxes on the Rich or spending money.

[dmallind]

7. True, but also against DU zeitgeist

For some reason the idea that there can be good news about an easing of a terrible economic downturn without everything being completely hunky-dory on all fronts escapes many folks here. It's like they live in a world where anything that contradicts constantly declining circumstances and total doom appears to them to be Panglossean silliness.

A runner who has multiple compound fractures is not going to be a world class spinter for a while even after the doctors have set the limbs and stitched him up. He's still in a lot of pain and can't walk well let alone run, but he's a damn sight better off than he was with the bones sticking out of his shins. The fact that he's on the road to recovery is still good news, and nobody at this point should be whining that he can't break ten seconds any more. The stimulus was part of the treatment. The gains in housing, manufacturing and the markets are the start of the recovery, but many people here don't want to acknowledge that anything positive is happening unless and until he can qualify for the Olympics (full employment and consistent income growth).

[MidwestRick]

8. The problem with this is...

in all likelihood, the bulk of these jobs are temporary until the funding is spent. Sure there were many teachers jobs that were saved, but what happens when the stimulus money is exhausted? Those jobs will be at high risk to disappear again. The construction jobs will only exist as long as the contracts keep getting submitted for the repair and maintenance work being done on the infrastructure.

For the most part, the stimulus is acting like a band-aid. :(

[TomCADem]

9. I Thought A "Stimulus" Is Supposed To Temporary Or We'd Call It An Entitlement

I am not saying whether or not certain stimulus programs should be turned into permanent programs, but then they would not be "stimulus." They would be an entitlement. Saying that a stimulus is a band aid or temporary is somewhat redundant.

Also, there were similar fears of a recession following the temporary stimulus of WWII, but they never came to pass. Indeed, if the stimulus does not fade as the economy grows, then inflation will take hold, thus it is a good thing that the stimulus does not become permanent.

[Peacetrain]

11. That was a LOT of people helped when most needed.. Thanks for the update

Clio!!

[Cha]

12. This is a good start!

On to more jobs for our peeps who are still looking.

[Prism]

13. You can make statistics say anything

While the CBO is "independent" to some degree, how they calculate various things is dictated and inescapable. Think of it as a sophisticated computer program. If you're familiar with how it works, you can enter in the right numbers to get a result pleasing to you.

Politicians know this, so when they write bills they know will be scored by the CBO, they like to write them in such a way where they know the CBO's calculations will come down on their side. It may or may not be an accurate or honest reflection of the costs, savings, or results of the bill. When you can tell the CBO "Uhm, this four billion over here doesn't count. Leave it out," then you're not exactly producing an "independent, fiscally conservative" result. This is especially frustrating with HCR, because you always have to go sniffing around for the actual costs rather than those Congress "allows" the CBO to tinker with.

It's not as if Congress doesn't have a vested interested in making their programs appear as cheap as possible.

With jobs created or saved, there's a distinct problem with the way this is calculated. If your employer uses any federal stimulus funds to raise your salary - any at all - that is counted as a job saved. If you make $10 an hour and get a fifty cent raise, your employer just saved a job. While it's a good thing if lower and middle income workers are receiving raises, it has little to do with the subject being discussed and shouldn't be mixed in with the other numbers.

There's something deeply, deeply dishonest in that. Jobs saved is a bullshit statistic that allows the administration to paper over that their "stimulus" was a bonanza for the wealthy, while the common citizen received crumbs.

[frazzled]

14. Visibility to the public

Here in Chicago, we've been driving over newly paved sections of Lake Shore Drive, and suddenly encountered giant green "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act" signs (can't remember the exact wording: "This project completed through ... paid for by ... ??).

It makes you stop and think: yeah, not only does the road no longer have potholes, but some guys and gals got paid to do this. I think these signs should be required on every ARRA project, so that people actually see where the stimulus money has gone.

[msallied]

15. I've seen similar signs out here too. Good to see.

I've also noticed a lot more job listings lately than there were in the summer. Permanent jobs.