The Repubs are killing themselves in the Electoral College with this AZ law

[CTLawGuy]

please feel free to follow along with this post on this site

http://www.270towin.com/ (on the lower left hand corner of the map, select, under "select an electoral view" "projected after 2010 census". I'll use these projected numbers.) You can click on states and change their colors.

Folks, the Republican party, by pandering to its far right nativist base, is on the path to presidential irrelevancy. If Latinos (of whom Bush got 44% in '04) begin to vote with the Dems a lot more like African Americans do (90%), the Republicans will be left with an extremely narrow path to the presidency.

Looking at the map: As a starting point, Obama won 29 States + DC and NE's 2nd district for 365 EVs. According to 270towin's projections, in 2012 terms those states amount to 359 EVs.

Let's assume, again based on their projected 2012 EV allocation, that Obama is assured of winning the "southwestern" states due to a huge upswing in support among Latinos for Democrats. These are NV (6), AZ (11), NM (5), CO (9): total (31), all of which he won in 08, except for AZ. (Aside: I firmly believe Obama would have won AZ in 08 but for that it was McCain's home state.) Let's assume, just to be cautious, that other high-Latino states like TX and FL are not included in this sea-change.

So, giving Obama his 08 states plus AZ gives him 370 EVs to the Rs 168. Now, of the states that Obama is not likely to win again, I would say that NE's 2nd dist (1), IN (11) and NC (15) are the most vulnerable. Take them away and you get O 343, R 195. I think the next tier of vulnerable states are VA (13) and OH (18). Take them away and you get O 312, R 226. The only states remaining other than these SW states and the Kerry states are IA (6) and FL (28). Take them away and you get O 278, R 260. Lastly, let's take away NH (4) because hey, Gore didn't win it. You get O 274, R 264. We are basically down to the bluest of the blue states. The Rs best hope after that is MI (16), PA (20), WI (10), or MN (10), one of which would need to be picked off.

In short, the Rs are killing themselves with laws like the AZ law. They should not underestimate the electoral power of Latino voters.

[sarge43]

1. From your monitor to God's eyes.

Please Repugs, keep on insulting, demeaning and harassing the fastest growing group in this country and they won't get mad; they get even.

[TheCowsCameHome]

2. Just keep doing what you're doing, GOP. Self-destructing is a beautiful thing.

I love it when it's happening to republicans.

[NJmaverick]

3. I believe we are seeing the death throws of the all white party

As evil as Karl Rove was he wasn't stupid. He saw the need to bring minorities into the party and had targeted the Hispanic/Latino community. Well thanks to AZ that's not going to happen and as you pointed out the GOP has seriously shot themselves in the foot.

[ClarkUSA]

7. With some well-paid Notorious GOPs thrown in...

;)

[Clio the Leo]

4. If ONLY we could change the colors of states by clicking on them...

... and you're right about AZ. It was a hotly contested race there even up until the very end. Remember when OFA sent the troops there in the last days of the campaign? CRAZY considering it was the home state of their opposition but it ALMOST worked.

[Jennicut]

5. What matters is if traditional Rethug voting Latinos move to the Dems.

If they do in big numbers the Rethugs are really shooting themselves in the foot.

[The Damned]

6. Yep!

The GOP: In Lockstep (Like Lemmings).