Quinnipiac PA POLL: Sestak closes to within eight points of Specter - 47/39.

[jefferson_dem]

Sestak Makes it a Race

A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows Rep. Joe Sestak (D) is within striking distance of Sen. Arlen Specter (D) in the Democratic U.S. Senate race.

Specter now leads by just eight points, 47% to 39%, as compared to his 21 point lead in early April. These findings are very similar to a Morning Call tracker and an internal poll we noted yesterday.

Said pollster Peter Brown: "Sen. Specter switched parties because he was worried about losing in the Republican primary. His big lead among likely Democratic primary voters has disappeared and although he remains ahead, momentum is clearly on Sestak's side at this point. In addition, Specter's big lead in name identification has begun to erode as Sestak television commercials introduce him to the voters outside his suburban Philadelphia base."

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/04/sestak_makes_it_a_race.html#ixzz0mxJCFh3i

[zipplewrath]

1. As hopeful as I am

That's a big lead with such little time left. I realize there are alot of undecideds left, and it's actually a tad late for alot of them to start deciding. But there is also a good chance that alot of those undecideds basically are "not gonna vote" folks. It's a primary, turn out will be those who are paying attention. I gave him more money a couple of weeks ago, but I suspect it was good money after bad.

[jefferson_dem]

2. Even better - new tracking poll shows Sestak within four points.

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/05/quinnipiac-and-muhlenberg-polls-show-sestak-closing-in.html

[daviddiano]

5. That tracking poll went back to 8-points from 4.

The daily tracking poll +4 is an anomaly.

Look at the numbers:
5/2: Specter-48%; Sestak-42%; Not sure-11%
5/3: Specter-49%; Sestak-40% Not sure-11%
5/4: Specter-46%; Sestak-42% Not sure-12%
5/5: Specter-48%; Sestak-40% Not sure-11%

Sestak flips back and forth between 40% and 42%. So, he's stuck at 41%

Specter is pretty stable around 48%.

That means the race is Specter +7. It's not +4, nor in any gap-closing trend.

Sestak's growth has come from the undecideds, but he hasn't eroded support from Specter.

Also, the poll includes "leaners", who might not have actually decided for Sestak.

Anyone excited by the 4-points doesn't understand the Specter +9 the day before and the +8 the day after.

[MH1]

13. Latest poll has Sestak ahead by 4

but it is the graph that is most meaningful:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-1050.html

[WI_DEM]

3. Good, I honestly think our best shot at winning this seat may be with somebody relatively new

and somebody if he's elected could possibly serve more than a term.

[WeDidIt]

4. All I can say is, I'm glad I wouldn't have to make a choice here.

Sestak is better on policy, but I think Specter has a better chance against Toomey in the GE.

Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

It'd be a real toss up, but in the end I'd probably tell my head to fuck off and go with my heart by voting Sestak.

[daviddiano]

6. Going with your gut

Stephen Colbert would go with his gut and ignore the mental effort to process the long-term of winning in November.

[tomm2thumbs]

7. momentum and energy appear with Sestak - plus the anti-incumbant mood of the country /nt

[AllentownJake]

8. Joe needs to be up by 3 before the election

Low turnout primary and most of the ward leaders and democratic precinct captains are in Specter's camp.

Specter adopted a very intelligent strategy early on of tying up all the committee people and precinct captains into his camp.

Sestak is building a GOTV operation from scratch. I've seen this game before, in fact I was one of the people organizing a GOTV operation from scratch against that strategy in 2008...the candidate though was Barack Obama.

The machine can't win a general election, but it certainly has a great GOTV operation for primaries.

[freddie mertz]

9. Specter is running personal , negative ads against Sestak.

I hope DNC and DSCC monies aren't being used for it.

Sad to see the national party reduced to an incumbent protection scheme.

Also another good reason to vote for Joe, as I will be doing.

[AllentownJake]

10. They are

I'm ambivalent in this race, seen the Sestak operation up close, it sucks. Also, Joe is kind of an asshole and the negative ads, while negative are also true.

We had the chance to have Josh Shapiro running...than the party switch thing happened and Josh put his ambitions on hold for a political cycle.

Might as be just as well. Josh is safe in his PA house seat and this year is bad bruising year for democrats in PA.

Biggest disappointment is that Josh was one of the few to stand up to the Rendell machine in 2008 and endorse the President outright in the primary. No good deed goes unpunished by this administration.

[freddie mertz]

11. Joe is deeply flawed to be sure.

And Josh would have been much better.

But we have sen how the Obama team eats its own time and time again...

This may be a lost seat come November.

[MH1]

12. Sestak will beat Toomey.

Flawed, yes ... 'deeply flawed' ? well no more than me... :)