The Oracle of Biden

[Clio the Leo]

From April 29th.....

Biden forecast is best case, experts say

When Vice President Joe Biden predicted the creation of 200,000 jobs next month, he raised more than a few eyebrows and prompted a White House spokesman to joke about his optimism.

Biden, known more for gaffes than for policy pronouncements, told supporters Friday at a Station Square fundraiser that the economy will produce up to 200,000 jobs next month -- and from 250,000 to 500,000 a month this summer.

A single month of 500,000 job gains has not occurred since September 1997, yet some experts are reluctant to completely dismiss Biden's low-range prediction.

"He's actually not far off point," said Robert Dye, a senior economist with PNC Financial Services.

Dye said a combination of temporary government hires to conduct the 2010 Census and an upswing in private-sector productivity and consumer demand points to the potential for hiring. And that could, indeed, yield six-figure job growth in coming months.

<snip>

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 162,000 new jobs in its March payroll survey, the strongest net gain in three years. The gain followed two years of losses that sucked more than 8 million jobs out of the economy and sent unemployment spiraling to 10 percent nationally.

Economist Gary Burtless, who monitors employment issues for the Brookings Institution, said the real surprise is that hiring has "been as tepid as it has."

"One of the most astonishing numbers from 2009 was the incredible rise in productivity. From all indicators we had a severe downturn in employment in the midst of a robust recovery in output. A charitable way to read (Biden's) numbers is he doesn't think increased productivity can be sustained without increased employment," Burtless said. "It's not foolish reasoning by any stretch of the imagination."

Bureau of Labor Statistics reports show job gains exceeded 200,000 a month 84 times since 1990, most recently in November 2006 when the bureau's survey reported a gain of 201,000 jobs.

Other economists question Biden's pronouncement, however.

James Sherk, a senior labor policy analyst with the Heritage Foundation, said there's little to support Biden's high-end job projections. He said some economists fear a double-dip recession in which the economy would contract after a brief expansion.

"Eventually, productivity and demand will create new jobs, but the word is 'eventually.' ... I'm not predicting this, but it's within the realm of the plausible, to say 200,000 to 250,000 (jobs a month)," Sherk said.

Carnegie Mellon University economist and former presidential adviser Allan Meltzer, doesn't make predictions. But he said Biden's high-end number is "beyond reason."

"Even the optimists aren't predicting that," Meltzer said.

Asked about Biden's numbers on Monday, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said that Biden is optimistic "and that's why we like him."

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/s_678616.html?_s_icmp=networkbar

And you guys thought they just kept him around because of his looks. ;)

[SoxFan]

1. Why The Media Sucks, Volume XXXVIII

"Biden, known more for gaffes than for policy pronouncements"

What a steaming load. When Biden was in the Senate, I was on his mailing list. I received a tremendous number of insightful and forward-thinking policy papers and speeches, mainly on foreign policy, arms control, and criminal justice.

[Raine1967]

2. DAMN YOU JOE BIDEN!

Damn you and your big F*cking prediction!

[theoldman]

3. Employment goes up and unemployment goes up.

I don't think the math is correct. Figures don't lie but liers figure.

[Dr Morbius]

4. Joe Biden is the White House's secret weapon.

Joe Biden is a card. Joe Biden has a big mouth, which he sometimes exercises without thought.

But he's also a very, very smart man. His intelligence is often overlooked. It is very rare for anyone to outsmart Joe Biden. And I think he's spot on with his prediction. From everything I've seen, the economy is starting to really come back, in a way it hasn't since the 90's. I think the Wall Street regulation bill will help, because right now smart investors don't trust Wall Street.

Actually, I should modify that. Smart investors don't trust anyone. But Wall Street right now is not a safe place for investors, even conservative ones. Restoring some sense of control to Wall Street is essential.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

5. good post

I like it :)

[Cha]

6. The US corporatemediawhores are the reason

VP Biden is known more for his so called "gaffes" than his policy decisions.

So much manipulation and manufacturing that even the fish don't like to be wrapped in it.

We like Optimism around my place too and VP Biden is my kind of guy.