Unemployment Good News, Bad News

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I do not care about the increase in the unemployment rate because it does not represent an increase in human suffering, merely a shift in how people describe the same situation.

It has whatever political weight it has, but voters seem to grok the employment situation more from their real-world experience than from government statistics.

So the GOOD news is that we had the best job-adding month in quite a while. Human misery was net reduced. The economy is net stronger.

290,000 jobs were added.



(The BAD news isn't really news, it's history. During the 1994 campaign the economy had rebounded beautifully and we were adding jobs at 300,000 a month, but voters still went psycho on Dems.)

[Name removed]

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[Teaser]

9. Let me be real for a moment.

I frequently disagree with K&H, but they are eminently reasonable, even when wrong.

[mkultra]

13. On the contrary

i find his logic to be unreasonable and myopic. In this case, i think i disagree with his ultimate conclusions but his evaluation of the facts is accurate.

[Pirate Smile]

2. That is a great way to explain the increased unemployment rate because it is true that it wasn't an

increase in suffering, it was actually an increase in HOPE.

People see the job market turning around and are jumping back in after giving up on it for some time.

[tridim]

5. Speaking 100% selfishly, my hope of finding a job just went down.

Even though I do see more jobs being offered (I'm getting more interviews lately), the pool of qualified applicants just got much larger.

[Pirate Smile]

7. Competition increased. That is certainly true. Good luck!

I hope you find something soon. :hug:

[WI_DEM]

3. More people are entereing the work force which strange as it may sound

actually may mean a higher rate of unemployment. But the net jobs created is very good, but hopefully will get stronger.

[BootinUp]

4. Politically, we should reap the benefits this time.

The majority of the public already blames the mess on W and the repukes.

[HughMoran]

6. It has been oft predicted that the rate would go up as people came back into the workforce

As a Democrat, I was hoping the overall rate would stay flat or drop (as were you), but I'll take 300,000 jobs and a trend in the right direction for now.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. I expected an expectation-lag

I thought improving jobs would precede improving expectations by a month or two.

Looks like public perceptions are more efficient than I thought!

[HughMoran]

12. Yes, confidence is returning quickly as many surveys have pointed out..

It's not bad news and it's not unexpected. It's not the best headline news, but smart people like us should know better.

[grantcart]

10. exactly right

[Teaser]

11. Let's hope the Feiler Faster Hypothesis holds up

.

[Jennicut]

14. In 1994 it was not about the economy. It was various factors

such as the ban on assault rifles, health care failing, the gays in the military controversy.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

15. It was also about a country that voted 3 times for Republican presidents

and backlash for having a Democratic one squeaked through in a 3-way race. Let's face it - there was a clear pendulum shift in American politics prior to 1994. Clinton was an aberration that was over-corrected by voters in 1994. That is not the case here.