IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Grassley Under 50, Culver Still in Real Trouble

[ccharles000]

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (5/3-5, likely voters, 2/15-17 in parens):

IA-Sen:

Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (35)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 49 (56)
Undecided: 11 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)

These are nice numbers for Roxanne Conlin, who is still unknown to 20% of likely vteros. However, R2K's polling (including their first poll of this race for Daily Kos) has really bounced around a lot. In October of last year, it was Grassley +12, then Grassley +21 in February, and now Grassley +9. I'm not really sure there's an explanation for this gyration. (And as far as I understand, R2K used the same methodology for both clients - and you can see that the question wording is the same, too.)

IA-Gov:

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (38)
Terry Branstad (R): 48 (54)
Undecided: 11 (8)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 44 (41)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 40 (38)
Undecided: 16 (21)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 46 (48)
Rod Roberts (R): 36 (26)
Undecided: 18 (26)
(MoE: ±4%)

Again, a lot of bouncing in the toplines: Branstad +5 to Branstad +16 to Brandstad +7. The latest survey is good news for Culver, sure, but that's a bit like saying Dukakis did better than Mondale - the numbers still suck.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6860/iasen-iagov-grassley-under-50-culver-still-in-real-trouble

[moondust]

1. Frightened old nostalgia voters.

Braindead has never faced anything even close to the deep fiscal problems Culver has had to deal with. But the anti-incumbent opportunist won't bother to mention that in his "remember the 90s" campaign.

[Frustratedlady]

2. He won't have my vote. I never could figure out why anyone would vote...

for him when he was running the first time around, and nothing has changed, except he is older. I can't believe he is running.

[Inspired]

7. Brandstad doesn't really want to be Governor. That alone should make him lose.

He had to be talked into running by the GOP because they felt he was the only one who could beat Culver. The whole, you're our only hope discussion. He was doing fine in private life. Plus he has some serious heart problems, from what I've heard.

His son lives in my neighborhood and I hate seeing those Brandstad for Governor signs up already.

Culver is in serious political jeopardy.

[Hippo_Tron]

3. The President carried Iowa in a landslide

I really don't see why the DSCC couldn't recruit a serious challenger to go up against Grassley.

[Inspired]

6. Roxanne IS a serious challenger.

She can pull this thing off. She will need a lot of $$$ for print and TV ads. She is also fairly well known. She ran for Governor in the 80's. She lost but ran a good campaign.

[Hippo_Tron]

9. By serious I mean "first tier"

And by that I mean a current member of congress or a statewide elected official. Roxanne is second tier at best. She might have a decent shot, but I'm surprised the DSCC couldn't recruit a bigger name to go up against Grassley.

[Inspired]

10. Who would you suggest as a first tier? I'm curious...do you live in Iowa?

Roxanne is probably better suited to run a campaign than any of our elected officials. Most Iowans don't have a clue who is in a state office. Sad, but it is reality. Culver would be the obvious choice against Grassley but he'll be lucky to win this year.

[Hippo_Tron]

11. That's a good answer to my question, then

Usually a top tier candidate for Senate is a member of the House or a statewide elected official. If the Democrats in these positions in Iowa are particularly weak, then that's a good explanation for why the DSCC can't recruit one of them.

[Inspired]

12. They aren't weak, just not a lot of name recognition.

That is what will help take Grassley's seat. Roxanne has that.

[renko]

4. Fellow Hawks

Still too new to message. Anyone from Ia feel free to drop me a line.

I know Iowa's trending blue, but from the state's newspaper comment sections and forums, it's sometimes hard to see.

[sweetloukillbot]

5. I'm not really surprised...

I spent time in Burlington and Clinton last year and while they were both nominally blue and I met a lot of Democrats, they were definitely Reagan Dems and I heard a lot of Teabagger sympathy. Lotta pro-gun/pro-God Libertarian types. Some of my in-laws were getting downright crazy on the Ron Paul/Tea Bag propoganda and a lot of the more religious ones (ELCA Lutheran, supposedly a "liberal" denomination) were really upset about gay marriage.

[Inspired]

8. I like Culver but he needs to do something about his appearance.

I hate to be superficial but he comes across as sweaty and extremely bloated. He is a nice looking man but his weight has gotten out of hand. He is in his 40's but he looks unhealthy. He can't run as an energetic guy with fresh ideas looking like this.

Culver is in serious trouble. I don't understand why he isn't at least trying to take care of the things he has control over.

Get him to the Y....NOW! Equal marriage rights in Iowa depends on the Dems staying in power.