Prediction. Harry Reid will win EASY re-election in Nevada. Dems will survive in November.

[dumpdabaggers]

The voters of Nevada would be crazy to get rid of a Senate Majority Leader, for some freshman back bencher like Sue Lowden, or Jerry Tarkanian's son. A Senate Majority leader brings in tons of bacon for their state.

The entire media claim that the "Democrats are doomed" is not based on solid data. If you look at almost all of these races, no one is polling over 50%. We do not even know who is running against whom in these races. It is really easy right now to scream anti incumbant rhetoric when it is still a generic race.

Yes, the Democrats could lose a lot of seats, the out party almost always gain seats in the first election after a presidential year. Our cable pundits, and talk radio fascist are trying to create news. There is so much that is going to happen between now an November. 1- We should be out of Iraq in August. 2- The economy is improving, unemployment is going to drop to around 9%. Jobs are being created again. Seniors will get their 250 dollar checks to help cover drug costs thanks to health reform.

There was nothing even unusaul about the Democrats losing the 2009 races in New Jersey, and Virginia. The party who loses the White House has won those races in every election since the 70's. The only real shocker was Scott Brown winning. let's be honest, he won because he had one of the worst opponents in history. She only lost by 100,000 votes and that was after she insulted the Boston Red Sox. The Democratic turn out in Mass was dismal.
oing to
I predict a Senate of 50 Dems, 3 Dem Independents, Leiberpuke, Bernie Sanders, and Charlie Crist. 47 Republicans.

The Republican's will gain 15 to 20 seats in the House but will not have a majority. People like Dick Morris are going to be wrong again. Polls right now mean little. People will not even focus on these races until Labor Day.

Blanch Lincoln will lose in Arkansas, Republican's will pick up seats in Arkansas, Delaware, North Dakota, Illinois, Colorado, and Indiana. They could lose a seat in Missouri.

I can not believe how the mainstream media has presented this as a slam dunk for the Republican'. Go to realclearpolitics.com. The polls simply do not show this Republican "landslide."

[MadMaddie]

1. You have nailed it. The MSM has involved itself in trying to

determine the outcome of elections. The more the put it out the more they thnk they will pursuade the voters that the Dems have no chance. I believe like you do that it's bullshit.

[dumpdabaggers]

2. Obama does not have near the issues Clinton had in 1994.

Clinton looked downright incompetent for much of his first two years. In addition, Rush and the GOP scandal mongers had tons of crap to throw out there. Clinton had the travel office firings, Vince Foster's suicide, the debacle in Somalia, troops in Haiti, the Paula Jones law Gingrich had a slick marketing ploy with his "Contract With America." Who do the Republican's have now? Sarah Paliner , and John Boehner. I have never seen anything as overblown as the "tea party." The media has constantly inflated their actual crowd sizes, calling 75.000 "1.6 million" last summer. The April 15th events were sparsly attended. In D.C. they only had about 7,000 people.

Governor Rendell of PA is right about this.

[MadMaddie]

3. I like Gov Rendell a lot

He doesn't pull any punches.

The Repugs and the MSM are desperate and they are groveling for something to stick.

I believe the Dems will be okay.

[HowHasItComeToThis]

22. THEY ARE THE PROPAGANDA ARM OF THE REPUBLICANS

[ORDagnabbit]

4. I hope reid loses... he has been a huge disappointment. n/t

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

5. I don't want Reid to lose...

I just want a new Senate Majority Leader.

[cowman]

9. Reid is a fucking idiot

and deserves to lose. Look, as a Paramedic with LVFR I hear all the time how people are PISSED OFF that he shoved HCR down our throats despite overwhelmingly opposition here in NV. I'm pretty sure he's going to get an ass kicking and we are going to have a Repub sen.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

13. And the "Chickens for Check-ups" candidate is a fucking Rhodes Scholar? (nt)

[dumpdabaggers]

14. "Overwhelming opposition in Nevada." B.S.

That is another big lie by the right. When the generic question was asked "Do you support Obamacare" a majority is said to oppose it. When the specifics of the lan were polled, the vast majority supported it. A classic example of how polsters ask a question ifluencing a result.

[Bitwit1234]

11. How can you want a republican to win

Reid is not that bad. He has a lot of mess in the senate to contend with. The democrats are pushing against him as well as the republicans.

Besides. I got an email from Howard Dean's committee. He seems to be going to try the state by state thing he did to get dems elected the first time. They are asking for people to have groups to listen in to their conference calls for strategy in the fall.

[dionysus]

6. is he being primaried, or do you want a republican to win out of spite?

[phleshdef]

7. So a nutty Republican that suggests we pay for healthcare with chickens would be less of one?

[KingFlorez]

10. Yes, because some crackpot Republican is much better

Some people would like that sort of thing, even some here. Say no to Republicans everywhere.

[rocktivity]

8. Can we get the supermajority in the Senate back?

:shrug:
rocktivity

[salguine]

28. Why? For all the good they did? Seriously, why?

[totodeinhere]

12. I am in Nevada and I can tell you that Uncle Harry is very unpopular here.

He has a lot of money to spend, but I wouldn't rate his chances at more than 50-50. And it might seem irrational to you to vote out a Senate Majority Leader. But look at what happened to Tom Daschle in South Dakota in 2004. I can happen.

[dumpdabaggers]

15. Harry has lots of favors to call in. He has the unions, and many friends.

He wil be well funded. He will win.

[Radical Activist]

16. I want Reid to lose so we can have Majority Leader Dick Durbin.

Republicans will not take Illinois, and they probably won't win Arkansas if Bill Halter wins the primary.

[dumpdabaggers]

17. Sorry, Halter has no chance.

He is to liberal for Arkansas.

[Radical Activist]

18. Blanche Lincoln is too corporate for Arkansas.

The fact that Lincoln is running ads claiming to be a populist is further proof that representing corporate interests doesn't make someone more electable. Your thinking is overly simplistic and Lt. Governor Halter, who already holds statewide office, isn't all that liberal anyway. Arkansas voters like populists and Halter can pull that off with more credibility than Lincoln.

[w4rma]

24. He's already holding a major statewide office. You're misinformed, dumpdabaggers. (nt)

[Imajika]

19. Wishful thinking at its best...

Harry Reid is horribly unpopular. He is probably a goner. If he wins, it won't be by much and the Republicans will have had to royally screw the proverbial pooch.

"The voters of Nevada would be crazy to get rid of a Senate Majority Leader, for some freshman back bencher like Sue Lowden, or Jerry Tarkanian's son. A Senate Majority leader brings in tons of bacon for their state."

This statement of yours is incredibly naive in my opinion. The voters have long ago demonstrated they are capable of voting in ways we'd consider crazy.

Your Senate prediction is probably fairly accurate. But I suspect we are going to lose around double the house seats your predicting.

Oh, we will survive. I also agree, we will probably hold on to both Houses of Congress - but we may not have working majorities to get much done. We have an awful lot of Democrats whom are completely unreliable and all it takes is a few conservadems siding with Republicans to derail virtually anything we want to do.

[tavalon]

20. "Our team" will do fine

I'm just not sure there is such a thing as our team. Of course, as they knew I would, I will vote for the ineffectual team instead of the batshit crazy team. But I don't think they are of much help, but at least they don't hurt things as bad or as quickly.

Those fuckers, otherwise known as "our team" know that they can count on me because of the alternative. I fucking hate that they are right. Oh, to have a truly viable third party.

[salguine]

32. If everyone who wished for a "truly viable third party" actually voted for the

theoretical third party, the third party would have instant viability. It makes no sense to withhold a vote from a candidate because he "can't win". Of course he can't, if you don't vote for him. Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[greencharlie]

21. talk is cheap... we'll mull over it in 4 months... nt

[Stevepol]

23. I'm not so sure an off-election is always a win for the out-of-power party. It really depends.

"Yes, the Democrats could lose a lot of seats, the out party almost always gain seats in the first election after a presidential year."

It didn't happen in 02 when everybody said it would. Of course, it might have had something to do w/ the debut of the voting machines as a real force. In GA, all the pundits were saying that Cleland and Barnes would easily retain their seats. They had substantial leads in pre-election polling. Barnes was up in some polls as much as 11% right before the election, Cleland by 5%. They lost by 5% and 8% respectively, a pretty big flip, some would say a clearly impossible flip. Of course the polls and the pundits failed to take the voting machines into account. The GA vote was counted by touchscreens and there's a ton of evidence to my mind that the machines were rigged or hacked during one or more of several patches. Of course, there's no way to know, since the vote was counted in total secrecy and there was no paper to use for a recount. It was the first of many "faith-based" elections in the old US of A, and I believe the critical point when the US stopped being a real democracy and became something else, I'm not sure what. "Idiocracy" comes to mind.

[dumpdabaggers]

29. It didn't happen in 02 because of 911.

NT

[saltpoint]

25. My wish list is that Reid prevail over his far-right nutcase GOP opponents

in Nevada this November, whether the chicken lady or someone else, and that when the new Congress convenes in 2011, Sheldon Whitehouse is chosen as the new Majority Leader.

[saltpoint]

26. I like the idea of Dick Morris being wrong again.

I never liked that guy to begin with.

[depakid]

27. You underestimate Reid's negatives- which are have been the basis of the predictions

in Nevada.

Reid got lucky with chicken lady, but he's likely still a loser.

[dumpdabaggers]

30. Nah, Reid will pick chicken lady apart if she is the nominee.

Reid has a ton of money to spend, he will win. I have seen these type of races before. Many people who now claim they will not vote for Harry, will hold their nose and vote for him.

[depakid]

31. Reid's unfavorables are over 50% -approval is in the 30's

and last poll I saw, only around 60% of Democrats supported his re-election.

Not good numbers- and they've been pretty consistent over time and across numerous polls.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/45387987.html