A Very Good Night For Democrats

[babylonsister]

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/75041/very-good-night-democrats

A Very Good Night For Democrats
Jonathan Chait

Here are the important developments of the night, in ascending order of importance:

1. Joe Sestak beat Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. I think this makes the Democrats marginally more likely to hold the Senate seat. Toomey is a radical candidate, and Sestak's win strips him of the anti-incumbent sentiment that's his best shot. That's worth more to the democrats than Specter's superior political polish.

2. Democrats will run Jack Conway against Rand Paul. This puts the Kentucky Senate seat in play -- Rand is the favorite but Conway has a shot. I have a pet theory that a politician's name is a major factor -- I'd guess being named "Jack Conway" is worth several points more than being named "Daniel Mongiardo."

3. Democrats won the special election in Pennsylvania, seemingly by a large margin. I'm stunned. This is a district that voted for John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008 -- the only district in America that went for John Kerry in 2004 and flipped to McCain in 2008. It's also a district that Jack Murtha described as too racist to support Obama. It ought to be ground zero for an anti-Democratic backlash. Republicans failed to nationalize this race, and they failed to take advantage of the intensity gap in a special election.

For months, I've been very bearish on the Democrats chances in November. This is a strong data point that Democrats might hold onto the House and perhaps, if the economy picks up steam, potentially hold their losses to the 20-25 seat range.

[tulsakatz]

1. earlier yesterday..........

I was watching MSNBC and they were talking about the Kentucky race. What's interesting was, at that point, Paul had about 160,000 votes. But if you looked at the democratic primary, both democrats had about 170,000 each!! And they pointed out that, unlike the republican side, the democrats did not have the national media attention that the republicans did! Imagine what the democratic side might have looked like if they did have some media on their side.......

[beachmom]

6. Kentucky has more people registered as Democrats than Republicans.

That is a historical fact. Yet it tends to vote Republican nationally. So, I really think Dems should stop spinning this as a big deal. It's not. In fact, the news is that this was the highest turnout ever for a Republican primary in KY.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. Democrats won big yet the MSM spun it differently

[tavalon]

3. A very good night indeed

I hope the intended underlying message was heard by the White House. They really, really need to hear it.

[saltpoint]

4. Yes. The Pukes and the FOX News pundits were no doubt pre-scripted to

begin crowing about voters' anti-Democratic fervor.

Looks like there's no cause for crowing. Democrats did swell. And the Pukes lost Kentucky and PA-12 big time.

Recommended.

[Kdillard]

5. It was but you wouldn't know it from the MSM.

[dgibby]

7. More specifically,

It was a very good night for the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party. Hope that's not lost on the PTB.

[Beetwasher]

8. I'll Go You Won Further; We May Not Lose Any Seats In Nov.

Not very likely, but I'm telling you it's possible and not as far fetched as some would have you believe.

We may lose some, but we'll also win some and it may be somewhat of a wash, which in itself would be a huge victory.

[catgirl]

9. K&R

[freddie mertz]

10. Agreed. But No Thanks to the White House.

The Sestak win and the Lincoln re-match are a direct consequence of Dem voters DEFYING the "orders" of the White House political team.

Stay out of our primaries next time, guys.

[NJmaverick]

11. K & R!