PA-12 is a bellwether, unless the Democrat wins

[WI_DEM]

www.dailykos.com

We spent the last two weeks hearing how yesterday's House special election in PA-12 -- the only district won by Kerry that McCain won -- would be indicative of November's elections. Here was über-wanker Howard Fineman, on Chris Matthews' show:

MATTHEWS: If they beat a local guy in a Democrat meat-and-potatoes district, isn`t that a real bad sign for Nancy Pelosi?

FINEMAN: Well, Chris, I don`t like to make grandiose statements on the show. But if the Republicans take that district...

MATTHEWS: We`re looking at the vote...

(CROSSTALK)

FINEMAN: Now, it is true that that district went -- switched from Democrat to Republican in the presidential race, the only one in the country...

MATTHEWS: It`s different.

FINEMAN: OK, that is different. It is meat and potatoes. Johnstown from the time of the Johnstown flood cares about government help. They loved John Murtha for bringing in the money.

MATTHEWS: You`re so good!

FINEMAN: Pennsylvania is a bacon state. You have to bring home the bacon.

MATTHEWS: You`re so good, Howard!

(CROSSTALK)

FINEMAN: If you vote against the New Deal in that district...

MATTHEWS: Right.

FINEMAN: ... it`s lights out for the Democrats this year.

MATTHEWS: OK, I`m with you. Gregory...

FINEMAN: Lights out!

MATTHEWS: David, do they see it that way in the White House? If they lose the 13th, Jack Murtha`s district, it`s like losing, to me, Massachusetts with Scott Brown <...>

FINEMAN: If the Dems lose that district, they`re going to lose the House.

Had the Republicans taken the seat, the media would've undoubtedly double downed on their narrative of imminent Democratic doom. (Say that last sentence ten times in a row, really fast.) Instead, we get this from the AP:

But any attempt to read into the results a probable trend for the fall campaign was hazardous — particularly given Critz's victory over Republican Tim Burns to succeed Democrat Murtha in Congress

[WI_DEM]

1. Tweety: "You're so good, Howard" Oh, brother!

[tavalon]

3. Tweety may occasionally act like he's our bird

but he's actually just a jackass without much commitment to anyone.

[BeyondGeography]

5. Bloviating beltway bozos

[Teaser]

10. was he getting a handjob under the table?

sounds like it.

[kenfrequed]

2. Everything you do is bad.

And any tiny defeat for any democrat everywhere is a sign that it is bad for all democrats everywhere.

However when Bush barely won in 2004 by stealing Ohio it was a mandate.

I am sick to death of this stupid double standard.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. A meat and potatoes district?

WTF does that mean? Because they support the Democrats locally? Okay. But that doesn't mean squat if, at the national level, they're voting against their own interests by supporting Republicans. Of course, Matthews was very dismissive of Fineman's claim that this was the only district to vote for McCain after voting for Kerry in 2004. In other words, as Murtha put it, it's filled with a bunch of racists. I mean, how else can you explain Obama receiving less votes than Kerry there? It wasn't like they're ideologically all that different and if anything, Obama held more broad appeal than Kerry because Kerry often was held down by the perceived northeastern liberal tag.

So this is a conservative district that even Cook puts at +1 for the Republicans. If by meat and potatoes Matthews means it's a socially conservative, economically progressive and culturally racist area - well he's right.

The fact a Democrat held this seat, after everyone claimed the Democrats were done because of how 'liberal' they were in regard to healthcare reform suggests that, ultimately, even conservative Democratic districts aren't too upset over Obama's healthcare reform.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. he means "white folks"

Keep up.

[Jennicut]

7. It didn't go the way the media thought it would and they have no idea how to spin it.

Idiots.

[harkadog]

8. Crist disagrees with Obama on every major issue

I don't see the great bellwether here one way or the other.

[Hippo_Tron]

9. Unfortunately that's going to be about two dozen members of our caucus if we have a majority

If we hold the state legislatures and governorships then we can redraw the districts after 2012 and have a shot at a more liberal caucus. But right now the country is gerrymandered by Republicans and running social conservatives in a lot of places is the only way to win.