Wait, Did the Stimulus Work?

[babylonsister]

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/wait-did-the-stimulus-work/

Wait, Did the Stimulus Work?
By DAVID LEONHARDT

snip//

When you look at the program as a whole, the picture is not nearly as uncertain. Home buying jumped during the very period when a tax credit for home buying was in effect. The same happened with corporate investment. State spending stabilized in the middle of last year — just as states were hearing about their stimulus awards — even though state revenues were continuing to fall at the time. Consumer spending has risen faster than income growth would suggest, but about as fast as you’d expect given the combination of income growth and stimulus tax cuts.

More broadly, job cuts began shrinking just as the stimulus was going into effect last year, and the stock market began rising shortly after it passed. The stimulus was by no means the only reason, but it appears to have been a significant one.

Based on its economic models, the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that between 1.4 million and 3.4 million workers who have jobs would be unemployed if the stimulus hadn’t been enacted. Three of the best-known private economic research firms — IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and Moody’s Economy.com — have come up with similar estimates. The average estimated effect on employment is about 2.5 million jobs.

Nariman Behravesh, IHS Global Insight’s chief economist, has a nice way of summarizing what the bill did (and, to some extent, didn’t) do: “It prevented things from getting much worse than they otherwise would have been. I think everyone would have to acknowledge that’s a good thing.”

[depakid]

1. Lots of eminent folks called it called right- but Krugman had the best metaphors

February 9, 2009

...let’s not have any illusions about what just happened. The centrists went to work on a bill that, perhaps inevitably, was a mixture of economic muscle and useless fat; as the price of their support, they cut deeply into the muscle while leaving all the fat in place.

More: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/09/fat-and-muscle/

February 12, 2009

By any normal political standards, this week’s Congressional agreement on an economic stimulus package was a great victory for President Obama. He got more or less what he asked for: almost $800 billion to rescue the economy, with most of the money allocated to spending rather than tax cuts. Break out the Champagne!

Or maybe not. These aren’t normal times, so normal political standards don’t apply: Mr. Obama’s victory feels more than a bit like defeat. The stimulus bill looks helpful but inadequate...

For while Mr. Obama got more or less what he asked for, he almost certainly didn’t ask for enough. We’re probably facing the worst slump since the Great Depression. The Congressional Budget Office, not usually given to hyperbole, predicts that over the next three years there will be a $2.9 trillion gap between what the economy could produce and what it will actually produce. And $800 billion, <[b>while it sounds like a lot of money, isn’t nearly enough to bridge that chasm.

Officially, the administration insists that the plan is adequate to the economy’s need. But few economists agree. And it’s widely believed that political considerations led to a plan that was weaker and contains more tax cuts than it should have — that Mr. Obama compromised in advance in the hope of gaining broad bipartisan support. We’ve just seen how well that worked.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/opinion/13krugman.html

February 6, 2009

“This is not your father’s recession,” Krugman said. “This is your grandfather’s recession. This is something that is closer to what we went through in the 30s.”

Krugman criticized opposition to the “pork” in the recovery plan, calling the obstruction “irresponsible” and “ludicrous.” He noted that it’s “a few billion dollars in a $900 billion plan. …They’re picking out small punctuation errors and saying ‘oh this whole thing is wrong.’”

Krugman added, “This is the kind of situation where you try to build a bridge across an economic chasm and if you build half a bridge it doesn’t work.”

http://thinkprogress.org/2009/02/06/krugman-gop-senators-limbaugh/

[fasttense]

2. The stimulus was not enough. It should have included a jobs program

and restrictions on outsourcing manufacturing jobs. There should have been choke-hold restrictions on Wall Street, banksters and lending practices. What did get out worked but now the economy will begin to sink again.

There will be a second time to get it right, after this next crash.

[Dawgs]

12. You're right, but it still worked. And, there won't be a second crash.

Even though you're wishing for one.

[vi5]

3. It could be called a "win" in the news cycle...

.so therefore it did everything the white house and the dem leadership wanted it to do. Juuuuuuust enough to have a small impact on some of the numbers to win a few more news days/cycles, but not enough to do any kind of fundamental change or piss of corporate donors tooooo much.

[doc03]

4. There is no doubt it worked in spite of what

Faux Noise tells us. I know of a paving company here that would have gone under if not for the stimulus, last spring they had no work lined up. They got a stimulus contract repaving a stretch of highway that kept them busy the entire season. The owner is a Republican and wouldn't admit it if we waterboarded him though. The steel industry was operating at under 40% of capacity last spring and now as of last week was at 73.8%.

http://www.steel.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Raw_Steel_Production1&CONTENTID=36529&TEMPLATE=/CM/HTMLDisplay.cfm

[DCBob]

5. The same idiots who insisted the stimulus would not work are now complaining..

the only reason the economy is improving is because of the stimulus. It just makes your head spin.

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Define "Worked"

Did it keep things from getting worse? Yes.

Did it keep unemployment below 8% as the WH said it would? No.

Was it enough to get the economy back on track? Doesn't look good.

Economic stimulus packages are like chemotherapy: not enough and the disease comes back.

[babylonsister]

7. So another one is proposed and everyone is balking; who are YOU

gonna blame now?


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x336890


Obama also urged congressional leaders Saturday to approve his proposals to pump more federal money into states where thousands of teachers, firefighters and other public officials face likely layoffs. In a letter, Obama described his plans as "critical and timely ways to further the economic recovery and spur job creation."

Many GOP lawmakers, and some Democrats, have balked at further stimulus spending, fearing the deficit is getting out of hand.

[DCBob]

10. "Economic stimulus packages are like chemotherapy: not enough and the disease comes back"...

and too much, you kill the patient.

[ProSense]

11. Worked:

Republicans are taking credit for it and campaigning on it.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MannyGoldstein]

14. It Was Never About The Unemployment Rate?

Really? And how do you know this? Please provide a link where the White House says something like "we really don't know what the unemployment rate will top out at, we think maybe 8%, but this is mostly about creating 2.5 million jobs". Good luck.

The economy *was* recovering. It's now falling backwards, at least for working families. Job numbers are dropping like a rock if you don't count the half-million temporary Census jobs that end over the next month or two.

As to your calling me a Republican because I disagree with the White House - wow.

[DCBob]

15. It was more about just keeping the bottom from falling out..

we were heading for a economic calamity worse than the GD. The stimulus is what kept that from happening. It worked.

[Clio the Leo]

8. You'll notice the GOP is now complaining about the deficit and not jobs...

.... so there's the answer.

[stray cat]

9. For those who kept their jobs or got hired -absolutely

even more teachers and public funded jobs would have certainly been eliminated by states desperate to control costs. The money to states and unemployment, Medicaid, food stamps was well spent and the best stimulus for the buck. I was able to hire an extra full time person with excellent benefits and a part time individual because of the stimulus money and I am just one person.

[ProgressiveVictory]

16. It didn't work if you think about the promises that were made, but it helped us from a complete cras...

[Cha]

19. It did work if you realize where we were and

how far we've come after 8 years of being fubared by bushcheney.

[Cha]

17. It cauterized the bleeding and we're

headed in the right direction. bushcheney had 8 years to fuck us up and it's going to take some time to get back to Clinton's era before their coup started on the devastation.

[Thrill]

18. Didn't the CBO already say it saved 2mill?

[LWolf]

20. Not in my county. I'm not sure about my state, but I don't think so. nt