Does anybody here think that the Dems might not do as poorly in November as the polls/pundits think?

[WI_DEM]

This is just my opinion and it's this: I think dems will lose ground in the house and senate, but I don't think it will be as bad as some suggest. I think that dems may be somewhat demoralized but I think that in the end (like in the PA house election that all the pundits thought the GOP would win)that Dems will look at the alternative and will come out in good enough numbers that the Senate and House will stay democratic.

For me a good night would be holding senate losses to 3 (very doable if we pick up seats in a couple of states such as Ohio and Kentucky--and polls so far indicate this is doable). Hold House losses to 30 or less seats and pick up governorships in Texas and California which would somewhat overshadow possible losses in PA, MI and some smaller states.

[Dawson Leery]

1. Democrats are most likely going to retake

Governorships and CT and VT. Also, the PA governors race has a shady Republican as the official nominee of the party. So anything is possible.
If Democrats come out to vote, there could be just the loss of a single senate seat and no more than a dozen house seats.

[Onlooker]

27. Virtually all the excitement is anti-Democrat ...

... If that doesn't change, it's going to be a depressing election, but hopefully the Democrats have something up their sleeve. We'll find out in September, when the campaigns begin in earnest.

[mikekohr]

33. Minus 12-18 in the House, minus 1-3 in the Senate

But if this is played correctly, -FOCUS ON THE REPUBLICAN ECONOMIC RECORD-
see: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/mikekohr
then we can hold the loses to an even lower level.

Let us not loose sight that nearly every swing district in the country has been won by our party since 2006. It will be difficult in the best of times to hold all those seats.

mike kohr

[Dawson Leery]

38. Those losses would not be too bad.

[joeybee12]

2. I happen to agree...about 6 months ago I wouldn't have, but the Repukes have shot

themselves in their collective foot, nominating far right nuts.

[stray cat]

3. DU and I thought Kerry would win so we tend to be overly optimistic

and wrong

[Richardo]

4. I agree - Dems will lose seats but not control of either chamber.

A Dem Texas governor is a real long-shot, but if anyone can do it it's Bill White.

[Gman]

5. It will be nothing like the news the pundits would love to report

that the Dems lost both the House and Senate and Obama is a lame duck.

Nothing like that is going to happen.


Dems will likely lose up to probably 15-20 seats in the House and maybe 3-4 in the Senate. Normal turnover for the party that just won the WH.

[vaberella]

6. I think the Dems will do a lot better. Win the house and get more seats in the Senate. n/t

[demosincebirth]

12. I like your thinking. nt

[napi21]

7. It's hard to say, but I sure do hear a lot of the Pub candidates

shoving their feet in their mouths! That nutball in Nv. is a prime example!

[TreasonousBastard]

8. Considering their past performance, I would say we should win...

an overwhelming majority.

I doubt that, but I don't think the hatred of or disappointment with Obama and the Democrats is as deep as the polls and pundits would have us believe.

(That "silent majority" is still around, and we won't hear from them till November.)

[Dawson Leery]

9. There is certainly some dissapointment.

But hatred? :wtf: Where is this coming from?

[TreasonousBastard]

10. Just look into a teabagger's eyes when "Obama" or "Democrat"...

is mentioned.

Around here, for a few months we've had "Dump Bishop" signs all over the place, and now they're being replaced with "Dump Pelosi and Bishop" signs. This is very early for a Congressional election, and no one remembers any past year when Tim Bishop ran and it was so bitter.

[Dawson Leery]

17. Hatred from the right wing is known.

The implication is that the political left hates Obama. This is what I am questioning.

[TreasonousBastard]

26. Huh? I'm not sure where we are miscommunicating-- if you're...

referring to my post, I'm talking about pundits, not Democrats.

[pinto]

11. It's early, for all intents and purposes, and I think we'll do OK.

I don't think the media coverage of the tea bagger rant-fests will pay off significantly for the Republicans (and may well likely pay off for the Democrats). Likewise some early exposure for moneyed Republicans here in CA. So much is being printed about Whitman's personal financing of her campaign that it starts to sound like a vanity run - no more, no less.

As always, turn out will be the key. :hi:

[DCBob]

13. Totally agree with your estimates..

Maybe even a little better depending what happens with jobs situation.

[Bitwit1234]

14. Of course the republican corporations want them to win

and since most of the polling companies are republican owned who do you think all these people are trying to convince - we the public -- to stay away from the voting booth because republicans winning is a done deal.

[Hawkowl]

15. Voting machines will ensure dem losses

If we had honest and above board elections, I would bet the farm that the dems would absolutely blow out the crazed rethuglicans.

However, I think the corporate MSM is merely setting the stage for the e-voting machines to steal more than a few elections for the rethugs. This way no one will be surprised, or at least paralyzed enough to do nothing, as in Kerry's case.

Most recent case in point is the mysterious victory of Alvin Greene in the dem S. Carolina primary.

I'm afraid that we can look forward to more fascist victories by theft and fraud!

[Lost4words]

16. Yup!

[Go2Peace]

24. +1

[RollWithIt]

41. So what happened in 2008?

Just wondering.

[Hawkowl]

45. MASSIVE TURNOUT

That's what happened. Obama filled STADIUMS full of people. They stole a lot of votes from him, but he earned a helluva lot more. Now, however, a midterm election turnout is historically low. Much, much easier to shave a few percentage points here and there. Plus, I think the rethuglcans have learned due to 2008, that they may have to steal large if they really want to win.

[K8-EEE]

18. If we get the young voters out, they don't want teabaggers

I believe that the polls are under-repping the under 30 voter since cell phones are not included in phone polls. And I don't b elieve the average 20 something wants the Republicans in power, or are fans of Rush, McConnell or Boehner.

[pleah]

19. I do not believe the polls or the pundits.

Polls can be manipulated to get the desired outcome and pundits are shills. So, glad I don't have tv anymore.

[struggle4progress]

20. Predictions are pointless: people should get out there and support their candidates now

Election night results will be determined by the hard work we do

[LongTomH]

21. +1

Forget the polls! Get out and work between now and November!

[Igel]

22. Think they might? Absolutely.

Believe they will? Waste of time forming an opinion.

My opinion doesn't matter, I'm not about to invest the effort in ascertaing the facts and background needed for forming an opinion, and any opinion will still rely on a fair amount of guesswork.

Reality will be here soon enough and incomprehensibly often has absolutely no respect or appreciation for my opinions.

[discopants]

23. David Plouffe knows a thing about pacing a campaign

and I believe he and Tim Kaine will let the GOP, Teabaggers and Fox News et al. continue to implode and fragment through the summer before the Dems' campaigning really fires up.

[BootinUp]

25. Depends on unemployment numbers mostly. nt

[LatteLibertine]

28. We can help

Keep morale up and stay engaged. Reminding people of how Republicans actually govern when in the majority would also be helpful. Or that is; increased deficit, increased crony capitalism, low to no regulation and championing the interests of the most wealthy minority over all. If you aren't among the most wealthy 10% and up of this nation there is no reason to support the GoP.

[FrenchieCat]

29. I think the Republicans along with the media and their Corporation

are gonna give it all they've got.

It's about tax cuts for the rich expiring in December of 2010.
They will fight for it, hence the tone of the news in reference
to Democrats, as well as with this President. They want us feeling defeated
and disappointed. That's all they've got.

[Forkboy]

30. I honestly have no real idea, but my gut tells me that incumbants from either party will take a hit.

[old mark]

31. A few months ago I thought we would do pretty well, maybe even gaining a few seats...

seeing the lame campaigns Democrats are waging now, I think we will lose a few, maybe some important ones, but we will not see the tidal wave of republicans in congress that they like to tell us is coming...Sadly, I see a few of the real idiots in the GOP returning - Bachmann, for one, and maybe a few more new ones added - Toomey in PA and Angle in NV.


mark

[DCBob]

32. A few months ago, huh?? A few months ago the situation was much worse..

That was when the teabaggers were at their peak, Scott Brown had just won and polls showed the GOP leading by several points in a generic matchup. Recently things have changed, for the better.

[old mark]

34. A few months ago, I thought the Democrats would LEARN from the idiotic

candidate in Mass who threw the election away-no one to blame but the Demcratic Party for such a ridiculous lack of effort...
This is NOT a dress rehearsal, this is the beginning of the election, and the Party is acting polite and superior again rather than doing very much to counter the GOP...

We really DO NOT NEED more RW morons in congress - I'd love for the Democratic Party to grasp the fact that they have to play to win.

mark

[jimlup]

35. Actually, it is probably up to us

If we can energize our base then the dems will hold ground.

I'm not being self serving here. I really think it has more to do with how energized the base is. I don't like everything the democrats have done but I recognize that they are far far better than the only alternative so I'm energized. How about you?

[Peacetrain]

36. I have always been in for the long haul.. all the way to 2016 and ready for the fight

[jillan]

37. If the Dems campaign on the BP apologists, denying unemployment - we may do okay.

That does mean or course that the Dems will have to fine tune their talking points.

[Beacool]

39. I think that we'll lose a fair amount of seats.

We'll retain the senate and barely the House, but unless the job situation improves from now to November, I wouldn't bet the farm on the Dems winning more seats than they'll lose.

[RollWithIt]

40. At this point, ANYTHING is possible....

It's going to depend on Democratic voters getting out and voting. If they've listened to the Republican talking points and don't show up then it will be a bloodbath. If they'll listened to those arguments and gotten increasingly pissed off about them we we will be just fine. My main argument is that Obama can't fix even a fraction of the problems within 24 months.

[treestar]

42. The pundits are in it for the drama

They will always overstate the case. :kick:

[depakid]

43. That we're even talking about losses of this magnitude should clue people in

to the fact that there have been- and there remain major problems with the administration and the party leadership.

Particularly since the opposition consists of the most pathetic bunch of nutters that every set foot on a national stage.

[Stoic]

44. Sadly, the Dems are toast

I think it's gonna be 1992 all over again, polls notwithstanding. We busted our asses getting them back in power and they frittered all the momentum away trying to make nice with the Repukes.

[That Guy 888]

46. I don't think the Dems will do as badly as the pundits hope they will. n/t

[rasputin1952]

47. I believe we will actually pick up a few seats...

we are some 90 days away from the election and the GOP has offered absolutely nothing.

There have been low rumblings of rescinding HCR, and people got ticked off; they mentioned SS and Medicare, people got ticked off; they talk about taxes, but hey are hooked on tax cuts for the wealthy, while raising taxes on everyone else.

When my congresscritter did his rounds, talking about "fiscal responsibility", I stood up and reminded him it was the R Congress' that got us into the mess we're in now. Want to save money...get the hell out of the Middle East, that's a billion dollars a day! I an in NE, about as Red as it gets, and people applauded me, and hit Fortenberry (R) 1st District hard.

The GOP has nothing to offer, (except the usual "tax cuts" no worker ever sees)...they do have an ace in the hole though. A lot of money is being sat upon, this is cash that could get the economy rolling; but he people w/access to that money are sitting hard on it to keep unemployment higher than it should be. Then again, listing the names of those who voted against the UI extension, could have a real impact!

Biggest hing of all though...D's need to get out and VOTE!