"I don't believe him," "it will not work" and a relevant response from President Obama

[ProSense]

The Afghan decision

<...>

Most importantly, he spoke effectively about the logic of a clear time horizon, generating political accountability, and converting a brief military respite into lasting political gains through a clear commitment to ultimately withdraw troops. His direct vow that the U.S. did not seek occupation or endless escalation was well said. But the problem is that such commitments are inherently non-credible. To quote that great IR theorist Drake, we hear you talking boo but we just don't believe you. I haven't heard anybody yet say that they believed that Obama would really start drawing down in June 2011, no matter what he says. And yet the strategy depends upon that commitment being credible, because that is what is supposed to generate the urgency for local actors to change.

I believe that Obama and his team really want things to work out this way, and have carefully thought through how to work it. But when things don't go their way, will they really follow through on their promises to draw down? Few people believe that. And if they don't believe it, then the mechanism of pressure doesn't operate. So it seems to me that the best way for skeptics such as myself to help this strategy to succeed is to keep a sharp focus on the proposed mechanisms of change, demanding evidence that they are actually happening, and to hold the administration to its pledges to maintaining a clear time horizon and to avoiding the iron logic of serial escalations of a failing enterprise.

More later.

UPDATE: President Obama anticipated my argument today in his lunch with columnists yesterday:

"If it doesn't work, said Obama: "I think there is going to be enormous interest on the part of the American people and on the part of Congress in keeping me to my word that this is not a constant escalation."

Generating domestic pressure to make his commitments on a time horizon and this not becoming an endless series of futile escalations credible will be one of the most important things which Obama's skeptical supporters can do over the next year. And Obama clearly understands that. Also reassuring is Secretary of Defense Gates today, telling Senators that Afghanistan and Pakistan is unique -- i.e. we aren't heading into Somalia or Yemen. One of the great benefits of the long, transparent review process is that all of these arguments have been fully thrashed out and considered. Even if I don't agree with every decision made on strategy, I at least am confident that they thought about all of these objections and reservations in advance.

(emphasis added)

[eleny]

1. Caught between Americans and the Military Industrial Complex...

[NJmaverick]

2. Once again our President proves his intellectual superiority over his attackers

:applause:

[Jester Messiah]

3. Yep.

The prez is well-versed in both the minutiae and the big picture, and has proven himself a man of intellect time and again. He has my trust.

[billh58]

16. +100 n/t

[quiet.american]

4. ProSense, good stuff. I look forward to your posts -- your name says it all. nt

[Cha]

5. I talked to people on the ground today

who don't like to see our soldiers having to do this but told me they understand why and we're all wishing them the best.

And, there's a website that my friend and our group uses to write to Soldiers and have fundraisers to send them things they need. She said they want items they can hand out to the kids..they had a beanie baby donation drive and scored big bags that they sent off and were very appreciated. Now they're saying the kids are asking for pencils and paper.

http://www.anysoldier.com/

[quiet.american]

6. Thanks for posting about the soldiers' website, Cha. I will definitely donate. nt

[Cha]

9. That's for seeing it., quietamerican..

I was really excited about it..I knew about it before 'cause I helped write letters to Soldiers in Iraq before PO won and then after he won.

But, tonight when we were talking I was getting real emotional about how we could help and she reminded me of AnySoldier.Com and how we could send them things as well as write to them.

The website as you may have seen already is very encompassing.

What I hadn't known was how they needed special things to hand out to the little kids of whom some are shown in the pic on the link.

[quiet.american]

11. Absolutely. This points to something positive WE can do to help the troops w/ their mission.

The part of the mission that focuses on BUILDING RELATIONSHIPS with the Afghani people. Not shooting at them.

[Cha]

13. Yes! And, she also told me that the book

"3 Cups of Tea" was required reading for the Soldiers over there and for the Afghanis who are helping.

It seems too good to be true but I'll accept it until I find out otherwise.

"In Three Cups of Tea: One Man’s Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School at a Time , Greg Mortenson, and journalist David Oliver Relin, recount the journey that led Mortenson from a failed 1993 attempt to climb Pakistan’s K2, the world’s second highest mountain, to successfully establish schools in some of the most remote regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. By replacing guns with pencils, rhetoric with reading, Mortenson combines his unique background with his intimate knowledge of the third-world to promote peace with books, not bombs, and successfully bring education and hope to remote communities in central Asia. Three Cups of Tea is at once an unforgettable adventure and the inspiring true story of how one man really is changing the world—one school at a time."




<more>
http://www.threecupsoftea.com/

Greg Mortenson has started schools for girls because according to extremist Muslims..the boys can't be jihadists without the approval of their mothers.

[quiet.american]

15. Talk about making a difference with one's life... thanks. I'll definitely read that. nt

[Cha]

18. I just ordered it used from Amazon

for $4.15..my friend got it from the library and now mine is on the way.:)

[Pirate Smile]

7. 'Karzai set to replace most of his cabinet "

Karzai set to replace most of his cabinet

Source: Friday's Globe and Mail

In a sign that Afghanistan's embattled leader is finally acting on promises to purge corruption, President Hamid Karzai is expected replace up to 21 of 26 cabinet members any day now, according to government insiders.

A thorough house-cleaning would temporarily placate Western diplomats, who have been threatening to revoke aid dollars unless Mr. Karzai roots out government graft following his controversial victory in the disputed presidential election.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4170372

[Cha]

10. They'll

thank us later.

[Pirate Smile]

12. I think they finally are taking us a little more seriously. The blank check will be ending. Get you

shit together while you have a chance.

[Cha]

14. Imv, it's because the intelligent

responsible adults are in charge now.

[ShortnFiery]

32. Intelligence without compassion and a moral compass is not LEADERSHIP but CRONYISM. eom

[jesus_of_suburbia]

8. Private ProSense...... I can't wait for you to sign up!

[CTLawGuy]

20. yawn

NT

[Jester Messiah]

21. Zzzz.... [nt]

[freddie mertz]

22. Blackwater is hiring too.

[dionysus]

23. did you ever stop to think that childish shit like that is never going to

convince anyone to agree with you? it makes you guys sound like irrational blowhards...

[HamdenRice]

24. DU has rules about mutual respect, but some posts strain that rule

What a dumb ass post.

[ProSense]

26. Don't be an idiot.

I was a private decades ago. Have you served?

Do you think that people in the military shouldn't oppose an unjust war like Iraq? So what makes you think that people can't support a policy that is well-thoughtout and reasonable? This isn't Cheney supporting a lie, Iraq or Vietnam.

Don't be an idiot.

[ShortnFiery]

30. Contracting agents would send you in a heartbeat. You could work in negotiations with the tribal

peoples. You really are wasting your talents here. ;) <tongue in cheek>

[billh58]

17. K&R n/t

[eomer]

19. Oh, I didn't realize we had that power to enforce our will.

In that case why don't we just go ahead and force an end to the two wars now? :sarcasm:

While we're at it, let's make them include a public option in HCR!

[HopeOverFear]

25. Obama knows he pissed off a lot of his supporters with this decision

but what amazes me is he's willing to live with the consequences of it, unlike idiot son, who wanted to hide everything.

[ShortnFiery]

27. He better, because he's not getting many of us back.

Killing people who had nothing to do with 9/11 JUST SO the MIC can expend their bombs and munitions is patently evil.

Not all super intelligent people have a sound moral compass.

Tell me, how is OCCUPYING two Muslim countries making AMERICANS Safer?

Now, we must "escalate to end the war" and "KILL Taliban instead of the people who attacked us on 9/11 (al Qaeda). :crazy:

"But Citizen, we've always been at war with the Taliban." :thumbsdown:

[ProSense]

28. You no longer support Obama. Does announcing it in every post make you

feel better?

[ShortnFiery]

29. I'm not alone and YOU know it. Otherwise you wouldn't be posting so many "I heart Obama" ...

type threads.

As another poster quipped, "I've never seen so many NERVOUS and ANGRY winners."

All this fawning over ONE MAN, ONE POLITICIAN. If you EVER wake up to the fact that President Obama is serving "the moneyed elite" above the rest of us Americans, it will shatter every fiber of your being.

However, it's beyond time to stop ADORING one mere mortal. :shrug:

[ProSense]

31. What does you being alone have to do with what I asked?

You don't support him. OK.

[ShortnFiery]

33. Yes, that's precisely why you frantically post Pro-Obama threads ...

Because me and my ilk are "all alone." :eyes:

[ProSense]

34. "frantically"? LOL!

Yeah, it's really hard grabbing the stuff I read and posting them. Why does it bother you so much that you imagine me "frantically" posting?

You and your "ilk"? You were the one who said you weren't alone. Why do you need to use anyone else as a crutch?

You don't support Obama, that's on you.

[ShortnFiery]

35. Yes, you'd probably better appreciate the term "prolific" and seeming "ubiquitous"

There ... better? :hi:

[Life Long Dem]

36. Yeah a bunch of whining cry babies yelling "we can't win!"

Seems like the bunch on the sidelines - waiting for some assassination perhaps - came out to weigh in on how bad it is to kill.