Unemployment rate falls to 10%. November job losses only 11,000

[DrToast]

Employers in the U.S. cut the fewest jobs in November since the recession began and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, signaling the recovery is lifting the labor market out of the worst employment slump in the post-World War II era.

Payrolls fell by 11,000 workers, less than the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The jobless rate declined to 10 percent.

The Obama administration, under pressure after almost half of the 7.2 million jobs lost during the recession occurred since the president’s inauguration, is considering additional measures to boost job growth. Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has pledged to maintain record-low interest rates until joblessness subsides, even as a recovery takes hold.

“We’re getting closer to the point where companies will need to hire back workers,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said before the report. “We’re going to see an improvement in hiring just because firms have cut so much.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acoPl62tu6Uw&pos=1

Net job growth right around the corner. Woohoo! :toast:

[Birthmark]

1. The numbers behind the numbers

You're gonna get a "drop" in unemployment when the Civilian Labor Force (the basis for the U-3 unemployment rate) shrinks by 98000; the Labor Force Participation Rate shrinks; and Not in Labor Force increases by over 290,000. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

IOW, people are being shuffled off the books and are no longer reflected in the unemployment figures.

[DrToast]

2. You're ignoring the +227,000 increase in employment in the household survey

But hey, I understand if some people can't handle a little good news.

[Birthmark]

4. So does the U-3

But, hey, I understand that some people want to see silver linings even when they don't exist.

You show me improvement in the unemployment AND the Labor Force Participation Rate and I'll agree things are improving. But isolated statistics leave me cold.

[DrToast]

7. Unemployment fell by 325,000

You can't pretend the improvements to the unemployment rate are solely due to changes in the labor force when employment is up 227,000.

And I haven't even mentioned that the average workweek increased from 33 to 33.2 hours.

[Birthmark]

20. Heh-heh.

Watch for next month's revisions. You'll have to look hard, probably, but they'll be there.

How can I say that? Check the unadjusted figures, where employment rose just 44,000 and unemployment shrank by just 40,000.

I strongly suggest, given these numbers and my prior experience, that next month will see some, um, interesting revisions.

[mkultra]

27. and what where last months revisions?

does your trend analysis fit with previous adjustments?

[pinqy]

43. Not really

The household survey doesn't usually get revised. The Establishment survey does, but not the Unemployment figures.

[Recoverin_Republican]

21. Republicans are committed to creating the most negative 'take' on any good news that arises.

Having recently been part of that group, I know that there is a serious commitment to denigrate and minimize any positive developments particularly regarding the economy and Obama's Recovery Plan. The Republicans (I almost said "we", jeezus!) are doing everything they can to undermine Obama's efforts to repair the economy that was wrecked by GOP - including trying to play down any obviouly good news on the economy as this might show that the Recovery Plan is working.

I can still hear the discussions about doing everything they can to criticize and to characterize as inadequate any positive developments brought about by the Democrats efforts to repair the disaster the GOP left for the Democrats to clean up.

Another approach they are using is to foster the idea that the improvements are coming too slowly. Think about it. We just very narrowly averted the Great Depression II. The damage was enormous. Talking like this can be fixed in 10 or 18 or even 24 months is rediculous. I don't think there is one professional economist out there who would say the economic catastophe of 2008 can be fixed in 2 years or perhaps even 3 years.

[brentspeak]

11. That's correct. According to the numbers, the labor force simply shrunk

Therefore, unemployment figures will naturally decline.

[uponit7771]

13. 2nd time this has been done

[KansasVoter]

3. If the economy bounces back then 2012 is a lock!!! +1

[DrToast]

16. I've always considered 2012 a lock

2010 has been the issue. Hopefully we'll have almost a year of job growth before the mid-terms.

[Kdillard]

5. I was so happy to read this news. Hopefully things will be even better

In the upcoming months especially with Obama promising to do even more.

[HughMoran]

6. Better than a sharp stick in the eye

K&R

[Peacetrain]

8. State tax collections is up to 50% for the 1st time in years and years.. Payroll

which means people are starting to get jobs to make payroll taxes.. :toast:

[Peacetrain]

9. Looks like we have a longer work week for people too..

Listening to the numbers come in.. that is great news

[Clio the Leo]

10. And one of the big stories that no one is reporting.....

.... is that we're still on pace (if not a little bit ahead depending on December's numbers) of where the Obama admin predicted we'd be.

8/6/2009 - Signs Suggest the Stimulus has Lifted the Economy

All told, some forecasters predict that the stimulus program could lift economic growth by as much as three percentage points in the months ahead, allowing the economy to expand at an annualized pace of almost 3 percent by the last quarter of this year.

That hardly means that good times are right ahead. New estimates by the Commerce Department indicate that the United States economy shrank even more than originally thought in 2008 and through the first quarter of 2009. That means the country has to dig out of a deeper hole than originally thought, just to get back to its level before the recession began.

On top of that, recoveries in employment always lag well behind recoveries in economic growth. Administration officials and the Federal Reserve all predict that unemployment could climb above 10 percent and is not likely to start edging down until some time in 2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/business/economy/07stimulus.html

So many who were quick to jump on the fact that the admin didn't think unemployment would reach as high as it has seem to have conveniently stopped paying attention to the admin on this point. ;)

Related - 11/24/09 - US economy grew 2.8 percent in third quarter.
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/296136,us-economy-grew-28-per-cent-in-third-quarter--summary.html

[Peacetrain]

12. Good point!

[NewLIfeArea]

14. looks their number of loss job

Obama ERA
January - 741,000
February - 681,000
March - 652,000
April - 504,000
May - 345,000
June - 467,000
July - 360,000
August - 298,000
September - 139,00
October - 111,000
November - 11,000

[Cha]

25. Lots of diamonds among

the coal.

Shine that light on it!

[grantcart]

15. Hence the term 'lagging indicator'

[ClarkUSA]

17. Most unbiased analysts predicted job growth by next year and it looks as if they were right.

:toast:

[DrToast]

18. Like me!

As I've been saying for a while...

The recession ends this summer, Q3 has positive GDP, job growth returns late this year or early next year.

And a new prediction:

Obama's approval ratings will be back around the highest levels 1 year from today.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=8563654&mesg_id=8563689

550,000 is just the people applying for uenmployment. It doesn't count those people who got jobs last week.

Even during economic expansion when we're adding jobs on net, up to 400,000 people will file for unemployment every week.

If the trend continues, we should start creating jobs by the end of the year or early next year.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=8571940&mesg_id=8572114

[ClarkUSA]

19. Yes, like you. Well-done.

:toast:

Now, what do you think next year will look like?

January might see a jump in job losses due to seasonal jobs being shed, but overall what do you think?

[Zynx]

34. They have seasonal adjustments for that. All data are released with a seasonal adjustment factor.

January actually might have unexpected job growth if there is not as much seasonal hiring because then there are not as many layoffs come January.

[stevenleser]

29. Yup, me too. Although I was a bit more aggressive and may pay for it too

<please job growth, hurry!!!!>

[PBS Poll-435]

30. :-)

8.5% by March. And 7% by July

That is my OFFICIAL prediction.

[stevenleser]

31. Mine was 7.5% by August. But the penalty was, erm, severe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdjAK8KTix8


Edit to say, of course, I have no one but myself to blame.

[PBS Poll-435]

32. It's all about trend analysis

Things appear to be getting better. Rapidly.

[inthebrain]

35. McJob growth

and folks working for less than what they made before.

Good ole Capitalism; The greatest pyramid scheme ever devised by mankind.

I recently worked a bankers conference in Boston that was attended by the CEO and CFO of just about every single major bank across this country. I even got to talk to a few of em about the "recovery". Even they (just like Geithner) openly admit that the recovery is going to;

1)Job Less

2)The Majority of job losses are PERMANENT!!!

3)Those that return to work will earn less than what they made before.

4) This last "recession" was not based on a natural down trending of the business cycle. It was a massive restructuring scheme that signaled the end of the post war boon.

5) The Unemployment numbers for November and December were going to improve not because the economy got better for working folks. Millions of people had their UE benefits expire leading to improvements in the numbers.

6) Folks aren't going to like this but they also openly admit that the working class has been in a recession for the last 30 or so years.

7) 1.7 trillion was stolen out of the American Economy in this recession. Not one banker. CEO or CFO is going to jail over it or will be indicted. The Workers are going to pay out the ass for it.

I could go on more about this. This stuff is not from political op ed I found in the newpapers. This stuff is from folks who are the staunchest defenders of the capitalist system in the land; CEOs and CFOs of banks. No surprise that the papers (the other arm of the corporate elite) were going to put a positive spin on this.

Oh, and their feelings on this? Typical of social darwinists. They don't give a fuck about what happens to anyone else despite the fact that they openly admit that some of em STOLE 1.7 trillion out of the American Economy and not one of them is facing prosecution for it.

[Odin2005]

22. Hey Doomers, eat crow!

[ShortnFiery]

23. BFD ....

Not. :thumbsdown:

[PBS Poll-435]

28. So things appear to be turning around...

Is it a BFD or Not?


I kinda think that it is a big deal.

[Aramchek]

24. Obama has saved this Country from a 2nd Great Depression

[LatteLibertine]

26. Well

How many hundreds of thousands of jobs could we continue to lose monthly? It had to slow some time.

I'm mystified as to how they want us to all "get out and spend", when they are shipping our base to China and India.

[inthebrain]

33. The rate fell below 10% BECAUSE THOSE FOLKS LOST THEIR UE BENEFITS!!

They are no longer counted because they are no longer being tracked. Millions of folks were projected to lose them at about this time six months ago.

[Kber]

37. I think you are confusing the unemployment rate with the continuing claims stat

The continuing claims measures how many people continue to receive benefits and can decline because people exhaust their benefits.

Unemployment, which stands at 10%, counts anyone actively looking for a job, including people who have just entered the job market (i.e. college or HS grads), people re-entering the market (i.e. mom's after raising their kids), and anyone else actively looking.

Their is another stat, which currently stands at 17.3% (I think) that also includes people who have given up or who are under-employed (like the IT manager working at Walmart). That statistic has also fallen in the latest report, if only by a tiny bit.

[inthebrain]

38. Think about that for a second

First off; We don't count people towards the rate that do not receive UE benefits. That's just the way it goies.

Secondly; Job applications, unless you are on exteneded benefits, are not reported either. So there is no way to really tell who is and who is not looking for work. Economists, when they estimate what the REAL unemployment figures are looking like, add about half the current percentage. If it's 10% you figure to add another 5%. The real numbers are at about 15%. This is during periods when there is healthy job growth.

This is still a a recession and there are still job losses. The calculation to figure out the UE percentage (which a few folks are figuring HIGHER than 20% given that one in eight Americans are on foodstamps right now. Good ole Slick Willie also hacked those benies as well) now is unfathomable cause there is virtually no way to track most of these people. Lots of em who have also lost their homes are transient moving from place to place looking for shelter and work.

Anyways, your claim that it figures anyone activly looking for work is patently false.

[Kber]

42. Again - you are referencing "Continuing Claims" not Unemployment

They count differently.

[neshanic still]

36. Well...not so fast.

"The bottom line is the decline in the unemployment rate this month was noise, and the unemployment rate will probably increase further. If the economy adds about 2 million payroll jobs next year, we'd expect the unemployment rate to still be at about 10% at the end of the year."

Calculated Risk

[PBS Poll-435]

39. The U3 rate will be below 9% by March, and 7% by July

:-)

[neshanic still]

40. We will see, as I have no job to keep me busy.

[PBS Poll-435]

41. Where are you and where are you trying to find work?

:shrug:

[calico1]

44. Sure hope so...

Net job growth right around the corner. Woohoo!

I am in my 5th month of being out of work. Not much out there yet. Hope it improves. It's hard to be super excited about news like this when you are one of the ones without a job..