AR-Sen: Polls Show Serious Lincoln Vulnerability - in General & Primary

[ccharles000]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/30-12/02, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (44)
Gilbert Baker (R): 41 (37)
Undecided: 17 (19)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (45)
Curtis Coleman (R): 39 (37)
Undecided: 17 (18)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45 (46)
Tom Cox (R): 31 (29)
Undecided: 24 (25)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 46 (47)
Kim Hendren (R): 30 (28)
Undecided: 24 (25)
(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen (12/1, likely voters, 9/28 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)
Gilbert Baker (R): 46 (47)
Undecided: 9 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (41)
Curtis Coleman (R): 44 (43)
Undecided: 9 (11)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (40)
Tom Cox (R): 43 (43)
Undecided: 10 (11)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (41)
Kim Hendren (R): 46 (44)
Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

These are Moe Szyslak numbers - plug-fugly. In fact, Tom Jensen says things are actually worse than they appear: In PPP's recent poll of AR-02, undecided voters in that district gave Lincoln wretched 11-58 favorables (yeah, you read that right). It's starting to make me wonder how Lincoln can survive, especially if Baker winds up being the GOP nominee - and it makes these other numbers from R2K all the more interesting:

Bill Halter (D): 34
Gilbert Baker (R): 42
Undecided: 24

Bill Halter (D): 35
Curtis Coleman (R): 40
Undecided: 25

Bill Halter (D): 36
Tom Cox (R): 32
Undecided: 32

Bill Halter (D): 36
Kim Hendren (R): 31
Undecided: 33
(MoE: ±4%)

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is mooting a primary challenge to Lincoln, and as you can see, all of the Republican candidates fare identically against him as they do against the incumbent. The big difference, though, is that Lincoln's overall favorables are underwater at 41-50, while Halter is in positive territory at 36-25 - and two-fifths of the state doesn't even know him yet. On account of that, I have to believe Halter would do better than Lincoln once he's better-known. But the first question is, can he win a primary?

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5978/arsen-polls-show-serious-lincoln-vulnerability-in-general-primary

[WI_DEM]

1. Rassmussen has been more tilted towards the GOP than most polls, but I'm sure Lincoln

is in trouble. And you know what? she will think if she swings more to the right it will help her in a state like Arkansas even though other polls in Arkansas show a majority for a Public Option.

[Captain Hilts]

3. What works in a primary challenge is very different from what works in the general. nt

[HughMoran]

2. I hope Lincoln gets primaried out

At this point I'll take a chance with another (hopefully Democratic) Senator there.

[msongs]

4. she may not even make it thru the republican primary - they like REAL repubs there not fake ones nt

[Hestia]

5. This is a difficult decision - the 'pugs down here are gawd-driven lunatics,

but voting for Lincoln is getting 'pug Lite. At least she does appear to caucus with the Democrats on most issues. It's that $3.3M from lobbyists that's got me angry...it shouldn't be this hard to cast a vote.