"Gaming Out GOP 2012 Scenarios "

[Clio the Leo]

I encourage everyone to read the entire article because it's longer than I can post here, but I'm going to include in my excerpt a part I read about Jeb that I had not factored into the 2012 Presidential speculation.

Gaming Out GOP 2012 Scenarios
by Tom Schaller

What's so fascinating about the GOP 2012 presidential race, as discussed yesterday, is just how wide open the field is. I was trying to think of a simple way to make this point in a comparative way. This is what came to me: Last cycle there were a lot of Democrats, but it was effectively a three-person race between Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. You could be--what?--maybe 95 percent certain that the nominee would be one of those three. Can you say that about any combination three Republican aspirants right now?

In short, a lot of scenarios could play out in the next two years. Herewith a first crack at some of them and who may end up the winner of each:
<snip>

The Empire Strikes Back scenario. Two words: Jeb Bush. His name is curiously absent from all these discussions, but let’s face it: He always was the smarter, more talented, and more secular of the Bush brothers. He’s got the Latino wife. He would be able to raise the money to be remain competitive against what could be a $1 billion Obama operation--and I wonder if any candidate other than Palin or Romney can possibly compete. And, of course, Bush would pose a problem for Democrats in Florida. Yes, the elder brother did way too much brand damage not only to the GOP but the Bush family, and Obama’s victory in last year’s primary was aided by anti-dynasty sentiments. But two years is a long time from now.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/12/gaming-out-gop-2012-scenarios.html

And all of my "Oh no!!! Jeb Bush/John Thune are coming after us!!!!" panic, I hadn't even considered the President's ability to raise money. Frustrated progressives aside .... ONE BILLION DOLLARS .... that's insane. And the ONLY two candidates who could come close to raising that much money are either complete imbeciles or carry a tainted name.

The GOP is so screwed.

[bluestateguy]

1. Obama will raise $1.5 billion

The "exploratory" committee will open for business the Wednesday after next years elections. There will be an Obama campaign office in every state and every metro area in the US.

[DrToast]

2. In 2005, I don't think it was a three person race.

And Jeb Bush? WTF is that guy smoking? No, Jeb Bush will not the GOP candidate in 2012. WTF? Seriously?

[Clio the Leo]

3. Thank you .... I need to hear more of that.

Now, tell me what a crap candidate you think Thune is.

They are the ONLY two that I think are palatable to the non-wingnuts to have a chance. (And those who are palatable to the wingnuts aren't palatable to the REST of the country.)

[AlinPA]

4. The republican party is mostly wingnuts. The minority of "old republicans" can't cut it against

the Palin- Gingrich crowd. The fundamentalist-evangelical-birther-teabagger-anti-immigrant-antiscience-hatemongering wingnut senators and house members and their followers rule.

[iceman66]

5. John Thune is a total lightweight.

Consider this - he was a Senator longer than Obama and did absolutely NOTHING in that time to distinguish himself.

No one outside his home state who doesn't closely follow politics has even heard of him.

[Clio the Leo]

6. Why do you need to have a record of doing anything....

.... when you're attractive and can talk in complete sentences?

He's skeeery.

[iceman66]

7. I guess the point I'm trying to make is

that if Thune were being groomed for a presidential run by the GOP power brokers, he'd have a much higher profile by now.

[Clio the Leo]

8. Got'cha.....

..... I'll remember that next time I look at him thinking he looks like he just walked off of the set of a "Just for Men" commerical.

And he's taller than the President you know .... just think, the two of them on a debate stage .... eek! Gives me nightmares.

[backscatter712]

18. That could make him a contender.

Bear in mind that a classic GOP leadership structure when they have the Oval Office consists of them putting an easily-manipulatable empty suit in the Oval Office itself, and surrounding him with corrupt Cheney-like thugs that hold the real power...

[Perky]

9. And just think. of it this way. that is $1Billion on the general election>

He will not have any serious competition in the primaries.... while it will be a brutal expensive fight for the GOP Nod. Loy of conservatives are going to be disenchanted with the nominee and seeing the juggernaut on the Dem that may just sit out the financial piece.

This is yet another reason, I think Palin winds up with the nod/ The few smart republicans look at the financial element and decide to keep their powder dry until 2016. They do not like Palin and while they do not want 4 more years of Obama.... they may well see his reelection as inevitable and see Palin as the perfect sacrificial lamb.Let Palin go down like Goldwater and rebuild the party from scratch like Nixon,.

[Clio the Leo]

12. Yep, and that is the ultimate example....

.... of why I oppose the idea of primarying a seated Democrat.

[phleshdef]

10. The only thing that would fire up the base for Obama more than Palin would be another Bush.

[Clio the Leo]

11. Another good argument, I'm bookmarking all of these for later. NT

[Robbins]

13. GOP

With Huckabee likely finished Republicans will nominate Palin or Romney.Unlike Democrats Republicans
always nominate FrontRunners.Now the frontrunner may have trouble at some point with a challenger but
the frontrunner always previll.Now some may say will they did nominate Mccain.What some forget Is while
saint rudy was the frontrunner In the primary Mccain was second.At one point he did look like he was done for money reasons and Romney would be Saint rudy's top challenger.As many Democrats predicted
Saint rudy was not the nominee.Many thought the GOP would never nominate him,and we were correct.
Pawlenty and all other Republicans who may get Into primarys will lose.Palin will be supported by
the Relighas righter,and Tea baggers.romney will be supported by Economic Conservativs and Republicans
who Live In Obama States(who don't crossover and vote for Obama)

Right now I can see Palin winning the Iowa Caucus,and SC Primary.Romney winning the NH Primary,and them
battling It Out In Florida.

Jeb Bush and Dick Cheney will not run.

[varelse]

14. He doesn't seem to be very popular with Freepers (nt)

[Peacetrain]

15. Thune is has such a smarmy condescending way about him..

[blue_onyx]

16. I think the "Empire Strikes Back scenario" is likely

My prediction is Jeb Bush will be the nominee. I know it sounds unlikely after the last Bush presidency but the GOP lacks strong candidates. Romney will not make the base happy and Palin will turn off independents. So unless someone else emerges in the next few years, I think GOP will go with Jeb.

[backscatter712]

17. I doubt Jeb Bush could be a contender, solely because of his name.

The nation has cursed the Bush family unto the seventh generation because of Dubya. Nobody outside of the 25-percenters will accept him.

I think Palin has the raw popularity among the GOP base to make a plausible run for President, but my bet is that it's not a matter of if she screws up, but when she will screw up badly enough to torpedo her campaign, probably when she gets caught with her hand in the cookie jar. Also, she's like the GOP version of Hillary Clinton in that she's popular among her base, but has very, very high negatives among the opposition (us). She is inherently divisive, and there will be blowback from that.

Romney is probably the traditional good bet - he's less overtly crazy than other candidates (not to say he isn't crazy, he's just better at being smooth and hiding it.) His problem is that the fundies in the GOP base won't accept him because he's a Mormon.

Huckabee probably has a very good shot - he's very smooth in public appearances, got a surprising amount of support from the base, thus I consider him to be a fairly dangerous candidate.

But really, I don't see one candidate from the GOP leaping out at me with enough charisma to really be able to win against Obama.

And personally, I find my favorite scenario (and a somewhat likely one) to be the fractured-GOP scenario, where the teabaggers consider most of the GOP to be "too liberal" because they don't punch liberals in the face every time they meet in the halls of Congress. They're likely to break off, form a national Tea Party or Patriot Party or something similar, and poach enough votes from the GOP to utterly wreck their next election cycle. At least we can hope...

[Splinter Cell]

19. Palin is not a serious candidate.

She would self-destruct like you said anyway, but she is not, nor has she ever been, a serious candidate for the GOP nomination. No matter what the media wants people to think.

I think Mittens will be the nominee, with somebody like a Thune or some other faceless suit as number two.

Huckabee is the most dangerous imo, but now that he has shit in his own messkit, I think he's no longer a strong choice.

[backscatter712]

20. That's true - I wasn't thinking about the Maurice Clemmons parole scandal.

I think of Huckabee's troubles as karmic retribution against the GOP in general for Willie Horton... :evilgrin: