I feel like I have an idea of what we, or rather, the Powers That Be, intend for Afghanistan, and I feel compelled to share it with you, my fellow DUers, in the expectation that much rejoicing and adoration will result. (Okay, maybe a little over the top there, but come along.)
What will Afghanistan look like after the inevitable disengagement of US and NATO forces? The goal is to have a stable country, with no undue influence by terrorist organizations that would pose a threat to foreign states. What form Afghanistan's government takes is irrelevant to our purposes, as long as it is not a fundamentalist Islamic one, and we have stated that we are not there to establish a democracy.
When the Soviets abandoned Afghanistan, they left behind a weak central government opposed by strong regional leaders. The center could not stand, and the vacuum was eventually inhabited by the Taliban. We know the rest of that story. Now we have another weak government, but this time it is by plan. According to one recent report:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11338927495% of armed civilian contractors currently operating in Afghanistan are Afghan nationals. This is quite different from our strategy in Iraq, where most contractors were foreign nationals. Several reasons might explain this shift in strategy. Pools of potential candidates could be leery of offers to work there, given the history of abuse of contractors in Iraq. Or they may not be willing to serve in Afghanistan because of local conditions, including an unmatched hostility to foreign oppressors.
In any case, the effect is that local gangs of Afghans are being armed and funded. By US. I don't believe KBR and Blackwater recruiters are driving through hill and dale over there scrounging up shooters, do you? Connections are being made through a series of corporate shells, each taking their cut, until a local leader on the ground provides the men for the job.
What will these men do when we leave, and there is no longer a need for them to protect the ammo and ice cream we now move across the country? I think that they will keep on working for their chiefs, who will establish themselves as local warlords. That is, after all, the only form of government that has been successful there over the long term. The differences this time between our withdrawal and the Soviets, is that there will not be a vacuum in the power structure. A very weak central government will be Afghanistan's face to the world, while internal politics will be subject to consensus, sometimes obtained through violence. That's how warlords roll.
In the meantime, Western forces in the country will be devoting themselves to cleansing the country of Al Quaeda, and whomever else the chosen leaders feel threatens their future dominance. Then, once the local tribal warlords establish themselves, we go home.
Our governments can't just tell everybody this, of course. Both the Right and the Left would oppose it, for their own reasons. It is a pragmatic and amoral solution to a Gordian knot of a problem.
(Okay my friends, the chum is in the water. Discuss. I'm going to take my dog to the park for a bit, while it's nice out, but I will come back.)
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