98% of incumbents have won this year. Is the Political Tsunami really just a ripple?

[Perky]

Political pundits and Democratic politicians scoffed Wednesday at the notion of an anti-incumbent wave hitting campaigns this midterm season, blaming the media for spreading the story line that they insist isn’t real.

Democratic Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas overcame spirited primary challenges, noted former Rep. Martin Frost (D-Texas) in POLITICO’s Arena.

“The concept of an anti-incumbent mood has been oversold by the right wing and repeated by a gullible press all year,” said Frost, a two-time Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman. “Very few incumbents have actually lost this year. How many Blanche Lincolns and Michael Bennets have to win before the press realizes this is not the real story?”

Six incumbents have lost this season: Sens. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Bob Bennett (R-Utah) and Reps. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.), Bob Inglis (R-S.C.), Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-Mich.) and Parker Griffith (R-Ala.). Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, pointed out in Arena that factoring for those losses translated into a 98.3 percent win rate for incumbents so far in 2010.

These statistics are “about normal on a 40-year average,” Sabato said, arguing that the idea of an anti-incumbency wave is a “press-manufactured phenomenon.”

“And even if there is such a wave on Nov. 2, it hasn’t shown up in the primaries,” Sabato said. “Time for a new story line. The old one is being worn thin by the facts.”

“As long as cable news needs talking heads to talk trends and revolt, these changes at the margin will always be magnified beyond their real impact on the body politic,” quipped Michael Yaki, a Democratic member of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights and a former aide to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), in Arena.

Meanwhile, Republicans argued that the anti-incumbent and anti-establishment mood was real and predicted that the sentiments would boost their party come fall.

Tuesday’s results “pretty much continued the trend we’ve seen,” former Rep. Vin Weber (R-Minn.) told Arena. “It’s not good to be a Washington insider this year.”

“It only takes a day of living outside of Washington to realize that the media isn’t manufacturing the current hardship of Americans,” added Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “Let’s look at the facts. After countless promises of positive change were made by President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority during the 2008 election. American voters have felt burned by the lack of visible progress. A poor economy, high jobless rate, stagnant incomes and a weak housing market are key factors to a ‘throw the bums out’ state of mind.”



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/40962.html#ixzz0wOfSLWot

[bluestateguy]

1. In 1994 91% of incumbents won

And that was considered an "earthquake"

[Perky]

3. I have posted previously

that the Tea Part Movement has cannibalized the GOP and logjammmed fundraising on the right due to their lack or campaign professionals.

We will wait to see what the New Contract with America (GOP agenda) looks like. but if they can't galvanize both the Tea Partyers and the swing voters with a solid message that appeals to both (I am not sure how that's even possible) I think this election is going to be a ripple..

We can mitigate our losses by nationalizing this election by making it about the crazies with each attempt to make it about the President's Agenda.

[Freddie Stubbs]

16. Was that just the primaries, or the primaries and the general election?

[FSogol]

2. Why the anti-incumbent movement will fail:

When people say they hate incumbents, they are talking about other district's incumbents. They are perfectly happy voting for their own incumbents as the evidence shows.

[bluestateguy]

5. I would love to vote out incumbents like John Boehner and Eric Cantor

but not living in their districts makes that a bit of a problem.

[FSogol]

8. Same here. Of course to really fulfill my anti-incumbent dreams, I'd have to vote

in thousands of districts. Probably not possible without owning a majority share of Diebold and Sierra.

[rurallib]

12. send their opponents some money. We are trying to oust

Grassley and Roxanne Conlin could really use some money (see my sig).
Grassley expects to amass at least $10 million for his run. Roxanne maybe $1.5 mil.

[theoldman]

7. Agree, check out my post.

[RockaFowler]

9. Bingo!!

People are asked if they like their Congressman or Congresswoman and they say yes. Ask if they like Nancy Pelosi - no. Why?? Because the liberal media tells them to dislike Nancy that's why.

[paulk]

19. it fails because the incumbents usually have a huge advantage

in funds and the party machinery behind them ...

[Bitwit1234]

4. BUT what I don't understand is how some of these republican

candidates are winning the primaries. Now this Debbie nut who thinks babies are going to be raised to be terrorists. Bachman, Palin Angle and all the rest of the winners, I for one, did not know that this country had such a problem with people with mental problems. But, they all seem to go to the republican party, so I guess like calls to like. If your neighbor starts to show his creepiness, you have to think they are going republican. Hey that's a good idea. If a person goes off the deep end, just say
"Oh well they are going republican".

[FSogol]

10. They get a lot of out-of area donations from the lunatic fringe. n/t

[Rosa Luxemburg]

11. My neighbors have already gone 'round the bend'

unemployed and want tax cuts for the rich.

[JustAnotherGen]

18. They must be watching

Fox News. No joking. They are being lead to believe that the wealthiest Americans will create jobs for them as long they can keep doing what they have been doing:

A. Hoarding

and

B. Saying I've got mine - screw you! Go get yours


Your nieghbors don't see this truth. ;-)

[gkhouston]

13. only the professional right is going to the polls. n/t

[theoldman]

6. Republicans want to replace Democrat incumbents not Republican incumbents.

They also want to replace moderate Republicans with right wing Republicans. I am glad that it is not working very well.

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. A ripple? Yup. It's sorta like...he's a bastard, but he's the bastard I know.

Incumbency has it's advantages, and the media (egged on by the GOP), in it's attempt to create the narrative has been hyping the death spiral of the establishment. If they can get enough people to buy into it, they may just create a new reality.

Just look at the media obsession with all things Palin, and the Tea Party "movement". Where was this media during the Bush years? And why were the anti-war protests given such short shrift? Because the media creates the narrative, and they tell us what we should be obsessed with each day.
Right now we're supposed to be obsessed with the horse race aspect of a mid term election.

[seattleblue]

15. 0% of incumbents have won this year.

The incumbent winning percentage is based on the Democratic/Republican match ups in November. This is only August.

[Perky]

17. Some incumbents were defeated in the Party Primary.