I don't think that poll about 2010 is that bad.

[ProgressOnTheMove]

Remember less people call themselves Republican than ever before and even with 60 % turnout for Democrats it would probably beat their 80 % of what is a smaller piece of the pie. That's how another poll says we make gains of 2-4 seats probably 3 if job gains by that time. Sure plenty of reason not to vote, but if we remember all McCain's promises to cut everything still lots to vote against in 2010.

[sabbat hunter]

1. don't forget

that people identifying as independents are about 33% of the voting population. They are the ones who the election will swing on. If they come out for republican candidates strongly it will be an R year. If they are split evenly or come out strongly D it will make it a Democratic year.

Chances are based on history the Democratic party will lose 2-3 senate seats and a dozen in the house, as party sitting in the WH tends to lose in off year elections seats in the house and senate.

[verges]

4. Historically, that is the case.

But I'm not sure there has ever been a historical parellel to today's situation.

The Republicans are disintegrating before our very eyes like never before. The current Dem administration is still replacing the most incmpetent, disastrous administration in the history of our country. If the economy continues to make small gains (large would be better ) All the Dems will have to do is remind people of how close we came to disaster and that they would most likely be worse off if the Republicans were in control. They are the party of No. They haven't offered alternate solutions. A vote for the Republicans in 2010 is a vote for the Keystone Cops.

[Atman]

2. You're going to make the doomsdayer's heads 'splode.

You point out a very valid problem with so many of these polls -- who cares if the entire GOP is "energized?" I bet that even our 60% is bigger than their 100%. So-called independents are another problem, though. They're much like "libertarians," in that not that many of them actually exist in practice. The majority of them are just a)Repubs pretending they never voted for Bush in 2000/2004 and b)Dems who are afraid they'll wind up looking like those stupid Bush supporters if Obama's plans don't work out. When the rubber meets the road, most of them will gravitate back to the Red or Blue column as they always have.

It's just cooler to say your an indi these days. The fear we should have is that a snakeoil salesman like Joe Scab really kicks up the "Indi" torch and hoodwinks voters into believing he's not actually a neocon-loving right wing extremist. Remember, it was just last season that Scab was admonishing all his guests to "STOP TALKING ABOUT RECESSION! THERE IS NO RECESSION!" The man's an idiot, but he's got the right-wing media machine behind him, a three-hour infomercial every morning, and he's a shameless liar who thinks he can get away with murder. Perfect GOP material.

.

[mcablue]

3. Which poll are you talking about? nt

[Sky Masterson]

5. I bet we lose about 20-30 seats

My old rep in Kansas isn't running again so I'm sure the pukes will pick up his seat.. :mad:

[WI_DEM]

6. If Republicans turn out in stronger numbers than Dems who sit at home on twiddling their thumbs

and if indies break for the GOP then it will be bad for the Dems. It will come down to who the indies support in midterms to determine if this will be an ordinary midterm election where the party in power loses 15-25 seats in the house or a tidal wave which brings in a GOP House like there was in 1994.