NV-03: Rep. Titus Tied with GOP Challenger in New M-D Poll

[ccharles000]

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (11/30-12/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dina Titus (D-inc): 40
Joe Heck (R): 40
Undecided: 20

Dina Titus (D-inc): 48
Rob Lauer (R): 32
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±6%)

This is one of the first media polls we've seen of a 2010 House race, and things don't look so hot: Rep. Dina Titus is tied against former state Sen. Joe Heck. Heck, you may recall, dropped down from the gubernatorial race to sub in for highly touted rich guy banker John Guedry. (Guedry claimed he bailed on the race for allegedly personal reasons - not long after it came out that his bank received $400 million in TARP funds while cutting him a fat bonus check.) Titus herself was a replacement candidate, joining the race last year after prosecutor Robert Daskas dropped out.

Heck doesn't have the primary field to himself, though. Real estate "investor" (is that like developer?) Rob Lauer looks to be running to Heck's right and has said he'll put $100,000 of his own money into the race. Heck's biggest sin appears to be his initial refusal to sign an anti-tax pledge (he later changed his mind); with the Republican base exceedingly intolerant of any apostasy these days, this may wind up hurting him. It's still very early (the primary is June 8th), but we'll see if Lauer can gain any traction among the teabagger set.

In the meantime, Titus has plenty to be concerned about. One bit of good news is that she leads among independents, 46-37. But the real story is among self-identified Democrats, where she only has a 68-9 margin. Heck, on the other hand, gets the support of Republicans at an 80-2 rate. The fact that 23% of the members of Titus's own party aren't sure that they want to support her speaks to broader concerns about the energy and excitement (or lack thereof) within the Democratic base. She'll need to consolidate those voters in order to secure a second term.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5985/nv03-rep-titus-tied-with-gop-challenger-in-new-md-poll

[Kdillard]

1. I am not too concerned when there is 20% undecided.

I will be more concerned if it stays the same next year with 5% undecided and other polls show the same result. We still have a way to go. I expect losses but I am going to hope for some surprises.