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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 02:42 PM
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Information on Senate races
These are races broken out by seats currently held by Democrats and Republicans. I marked the seats I think Democrats will definitely keep. It's likely Dems could pick up a seat or two currently held by Republicans, but I'm not going to speculate just yet.

Seats currently held by Democrats

Arkansas
Republicans are targeting Senator Blanche Lincoln, but she is a seasoned campaigner who consistently votes with the best interests of Arkansans in mind. During her two terms in the Senate, Lincoln has been a hard working advocate for Arkansas families who admire her commitment to independence, bipartisanship and her focus on health care and pocketbook issues. Recently, Lincoln was named chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which will help her deliver even more for the people of her state. On the other side, Lincoln will face Republican Congressman John Boozman


California (keep)
Republicans have put a target on Senator Barbara Boxer, who they believe is vulnerable in 2010. On the Republican side is Carly Fiorina, the disgraced former CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Fiorina is most known for nearly running HP into the ground, laying off more than 33,000 workers , then collecting a $42 million golden parachute. Boxer remains popular in the Golden State and won 58% of the vote in her last bid for re-election, but Fiorina will be spending millions to try to unseat her.


Colorado (keep)
Michael Bennet will be defending his seat for the first time in 2010. In the little over a year since his appointment to the Senate, Bennet has been recognized as a leading national voice on education who works hard every day to build a better future for Colorado families and communities. The Republicans nominated extreme right winger Ken Buck, who wants to repeal health care reform, privatize Social Security, Medicare and federal student loans, and supports “birther” legislation designed to undermine President Obama’s legitimacy.


Connecticut (keep)
Popular Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal brings extensive statewide campaign experience, name recognition, and high favorability ratings to the table. He’s a proven vote-getter and a trusted public servant, having fought for the people of his state for over 25 years. On the Republican side, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment Linda McMahon has made millions of dollars by mistreating employees and marketing violence to children. She has already spent $26 million on her campaign and has said she is willing to spend whatever it takes to win.


Delaware (keep)
With Senator Ted Kaufman not running for office in 2010, the Delaware Senate seat is up for grabs. Taking up the Democratic cause is New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. Coons has been an independent fighter for Delaware who has made job growth, public safety, and fiscal responsibility the cornerstones of his administration and will continue that legacy in the Senate. On the Republican side, longtime Congressman Mike Castle is running. Castle, who has been a politician for over forty years, will have to account for a record of embracing the failed Bush economic policies that drove Delaware’s economy into a ditch, voting against the Obama-Biden plans to create jobs and turn the economy around, and opposing meaningful health care reform. Castle faces a Republican primary challenge from right-winger Christine O’Donnell on Sept. 14.


Illinois (keep)
Senator Roland Burris has decided not to run for office in 2010, setting up an open race for President Obama’s former Senate seat. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is the Democratic nominee. Giannoulias has a clear record of working to save and create jobs and has focused on ethics reform during his time in office. Giannoulias will work with President Obama to create jobs and opportunity across the state of Illinois. On the Republican side, Congressman Mark Kirk has spent years in Congress voting for the failed policies of former President Bush and now votes against President Obama every time he gets a chance. Recently, Kirk has come under fire for lying, flip-flopping on votes and literally running from the media.


Indiana
With Senator Evan Bayh deciding not to seek re-election, Indiana will have an open Senate seat in 2010. The Democratic nominee is former sheriff and current Congressman Brad Ellsworth, who is focused on holding Wall Street accountable and the needs of the middle class. On the Republican side, former U.S. Senator Dan Coats is the nominee. Since leaving the Senate, Coats has made a career as a lobbyist, working on behalf of Wall Street banks, big oil companies, and even a foreign nation. Coats has also lived and voted in Virginia for the past ten years, only moving back to Indiana to run for office. But Coats’s friends from his lobbyist days will ensure he has the funding needed to make this a close and competitive race.


Maryland (keep)
Barbara Mikulski (D-unopposed)


Nevada (keep)
Many Republicans view Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid as their number one target in 2010. However, President Obama won Nevada by twelve percentage points in 2008. Reid has been fighting tirelessly for his state, bringing in money for jobs, transportation, and infrastructure. Republicans have nominated the tea-party backed, Club for Growth-endorsed former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. Since her nomination, Angle’s extreme views have been exposed, and her poll numbers have slid. Angle would eliminate Social Security and Medicare, thinks unemployed Nevadans are spoiled, doesn’t think a U.S. senator should help create jobs, would bring nuclear waste to Yucca Mountain and has been ducking the press – even literally running from a TV reporter. Despite her extreme views, opponents will spend heavily until the end in their attempt to unseat the Democratic leader.


New York (keep)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Winner of Republican Primary (Sept. 14)
Kirsten Gillibrand has hit the ground running in the Empire State. Senator Gillibrand has proven herself to be an outstanding senator who works hard every day for the people of New York. The popular former congresswoman and working mother from upstate New York has been traveling to all corners of the state to meet her constituents and gain support. Self-funder and former Bear Stearns economist David Malpass is seeking the Republican nomination and has a personal fortune to spend on the race. Republicans Joseph DioGuardi and Bruce Blakeman also are running. No matter which GOP candidate wins on Sept. 14, Gillibrand is favored to win in 2010.


Chuck Schumer (D) vs. Winner of Republican Primary (Sept. 14)
Chuck Schumer is one of the most popular senators in the country, having been re-elected with over 70% of the vote in 2004 and winning 61 out of 62 counties in New York. The successful former chairman of the DSCC, Schumer is now the third-ranking Democrat in the Senate. New York Republicans have yet to select their candidate.


North Dakota
Tracy Potter (D) vs. John Hoeven (R)


Oregon (keep)
Ron Wyden (D-unopposed)


Pennsylvania (keep)
Pennsylvania Democrats have nominated Congressman Joe Sestak, a former Navy vice admiral and energetic campaigner whose compelling personal profile and a message of change resonates with voters, especially in this political environment. He will face former Congressman Pat Toomey. After five years in the House of Representatives, Toomey led the extremist Club for Growth, advocating for the interests of big banks, oil companies and insurance companies. While in Congress, Pat Toomey racked up a voting record that makes former Senator Rick Santorum look moderate. In fact, Toomey has a 97 percent lifetime conservative rating from the American Conservative Union – nine points higher than Santorum’s 88 percent.


Vermont (keep)
Patrick Leahy (D-unopposed)


Washington (keep)
Senator Patty Murray is seeking re-election to the U.S. Senate in Washington. Murray has been a strong voice for the citizens of her state – working tirelessly to help create jobs. On the Republican side, businessman and party establishment pick Dino Rossi finally decided to join the race after months of fence-sitting. Rossi is known for questionable business ties and dealings, and his real estate firm came under fire for owing more than $20,000 in back taxes. Rossi took time from the campaign trail to headline a real estate conference that taught investors how to profit off of the misery of people who had their homes foreclosed on.


Wisconsin (keep)
Senator Russ Feingold is seeking re-election in Wisconsin. Feingold is a champion of the middle class who is working with President Obama to get the economy back on track, strengthen health care and clean up our environment. On the Republican side, self-proclaimed and self-funded Tea Party Republican Ron Johnson is challenging Feingold. Johnson called Social Security a “Ponzi scheme,” said that he is “glad there is global warming,” and said that this is not the time to be “beating up” on big oil – while neglecting to mention his large holdings of British Petroleum stock. We clearly can’t afford to have him in the Senate. Given Johnson’s deep pockets – he has pledged to spend $15 million and is worth much more – we must support Feingold to keep this seat blue.



Seats currently held by Republicans

Alabama
Richard Shelby (R-unopposed)


Alaska
Democrat Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka and former school board president, will challenge the winner of the Republican primary in November.

The votes are still being counted after the 8/24 primary, but Tea Party favorite Joe Miller is leading incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski for the Republican nomination. This is potentially the seventh establishment GOP to be defeated in a primary this year. Democrat Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka and former school board president, will challenge the winner in November.


Arizona
John McCain (R-unopposed)


Florida
Right-wing extremist Marco Rubio has become the darling of the Tea Party movement and national conservatives, including the Club for Growth, which have helped fund his campaign. However, this supposed economic conservative hasn’t answered for the lavish spending he and his staffers racked up on the party credit card during his time as Florida Speaker of the House. A federal investigation is ongoing. On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek is running a strong campaign focused on Florida’s economy and jobs, and Meek is the first statewide candidate to qualify for the ballot by petition in Florida history. Meek is facing a challenge in the primary by Jeff Greene. Gov. Charlie Crist will be on the ballot as an independent.


Georgia
Michael Thurmond (D) vs. Johnny Isakson (R)


Idaho
Democratic entrepreneur Tom Sullivan will challenge Republican Sen. Mike Crapo on the ballot in November.

In Idaho, GOP Senator Mike Crapo is running for a third term in the Senate. Democratic entrepreneur Tom Sullivan will challenge Crapo on the ballot in November. Sullivan is a small-business owner who is focused on creating jobs in Idaho – particularly in new energy technologies – while protecting the state’s environment. We must work hard in every state and make every effort to win in Idaho in 2010.


Iowa
Sen. Chuck Grassley is facing a tough re-election campaign in 2010 in this blue state. His poll numbers hit all-time lows earlier this year as he continues to show that he is out of touch with the people of Iowa. Grassley got national attention when he suggested that the government under health care reform could “pull the plug on grandma.” Attorney Roxanne Conlin is the Democratic nominee. Conlin is a former U.S. Attorney who has spent her life fighting for everyday people and standing up against special interests and large corporations.


Kansas
Lisa Johnston will challenge Republican Congressman Jerry Moran in November. Johnston is an education administrator and former teacher who has promised to bring a fresh perspective to Washington and to fight to improve the future for all Kansans.

With Republican incumbent Senator Sam Brownback stepping down to run for governor, Republicans have chosen Congressmen Jerry Moran as their Senate candidate. Moran was a strong supporter of President Bush’s policies and continually votes against President Obama’s economic recovery efforts. On the Democratic side, Lisa Johnston will challenge Moran in November. Johnston is an education administrator and former teacher who has promised to bring a fresh perspective to Washington and to fight to improve the future for all Kansans.


Kentucky
In Kentucky, Democrats nominated a crusading Attorney General with a record of standing up to the special interests and shaking up business as usual. Jack Conway has always put Kentucky families first and is a fierce advocate for taxpayers – recently uncovering tens of millions of dollars in Medicaid fraud. On the other hand, Republicans nominated a very problematic candidate whose irrational policy positions generate national headlines but would hurt the people of Kentucky. Rand Paul, a non-native of Kentucky, opposes parts of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and would abolish the Departments of Education and Agriculture. For Democrats in Kentucky to be successful this November, we must be aggressive in framing the choice for voters. Jack Conway is focused on the needs of the middle class and creating jobs, while Rand Paul is focused on appealing to the fringe of the Republican Party.


Louisiana
The fall election is sure to be competitive due to embattled Senator Vitter’s personal issues and his increasingly extremist voting record. The bad press keeps piling up for Vitter – he was named a client in the D.C. Madam scandal, came under fire for holding up President Obama’s nominee to head FEMA, and fought for a liability cap for British Petroleum in the wake of the corporation’s Gulf oil disaster. Now Vitter has come under fire from both right and left for keeping an aide on his payroll for two years after the aide held a woman hostage and slashed her face with a knife – and even assigning the aide to work on women’s issues. The people of Louisiana deserve better representation in Congress. Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon is running against Vitter, and has been catching up in the polls. Melancon is a strong advocate for his constituents and has a track record of putting their interests over partisan politics. Most recently, Melancon has been fighting for small businesses devastated by the oil spill and is making sure BP pays every dollar in cleanup costs. Melancon is just the Democrat to help restore trust and respect between the people of Louisiana and their public servants.


Missouri (R)
This race to fill retiring Senator Kit Bond’s seat pits popular Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan against the ultimate Washington insider, Congressman Roy Blunt. Robin Carnahan is smart, tough, savvy, and has widespread appeal across Missouri – having been elected statewide twice, including in 2008 when she won a record 1.7 million votes. On the Republican side, Roy Blunt has a history of ethical problems and close ties to lobbyists and special interests. As majority whip in the House of Representatives, Blunt, along with disgraced Majority Leader Tom DeLay, was one of the chief congressional architects of former President Bush’s failed agenda. Blunt has come under fire for saying that it would have been “best” if Medicare and Medicaid had not been created in the first place and for saying it’s “legitimate” for people to question whether President Obama is an American citizen. It’s clear that Missourians face a stark choice in 2010 and that Robin Carnahan is positioning herself well to win this open seat.


New Hampshire (R)
With Judd Gregg retiring, New Hampshire presents a golden opportunity for Democrats to pick up an open Senate seat. Due to his history of exercising independent judgment and putting his constituents first, Congressman Paul Hodes is in good shape in a state that is trending more blue each election cycle. On the Republican side, Kelly Ayotte broke her word to the people of New Hampshire by resigning as attorney general after giving Governor Lynch her word she would serve out a full term. Ayotte also has come under fire for failing to take action to stop the state’s largest Ponzi scheme. She has been endorsed by Sarah Palin and named one of Palin’s “Mama Grizzlies.” The politically untested Ayotte faces a very contentious primary against conservative former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne and businessmen Jim Bender and Bill Binnie.


North Carolina (R)
Senator Richard Burr is finding himself in tough terrain for an incumbent. Not only has North Carolina gone blue in recent cycles, but Senator Burr’s approval ratings are alarmingly low. A recent poll showed an astonishingly low 32% of North Carolinians approve of the way he is handling his job. Last summer, Burr made national news when he told a group of business leaders what his response to the economic crisis was – he asked his wife to go to the ATM and take out as much money as she could. Burr has said he would do the exact same thing again. Burr also has been a consistent opponent of reforms that would benefit North Carolinians. Democrats chose Secretary of State Elaine Marshall as their nominee. Marshall is a proven reformer who has taken on special interests in her state and will be a strong challenger for Burr in November. Recent polls show Marshall running nearly even with Burr.


Ohio
With Sen. George Voinovich deciding to retire, Democrats have a great opportunity to capture a Republican-held seat. Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, the Democratic nominee, is respected throughout Ohio as a champion of the middle class. On the other hand, Republican candidate Rob Portman is the epitome of a Bush-Cheney Republican, having served as both George W. Bush’s U.S. Trade Representative and his Director of the Office of Management and Budget. The people of Ohio can thank him for thousands of lost jobs, continuance of tax credits for corporations that move their jobs overseas and a huge trade imbalance.


Oklahoma
Tom Coburn (R-unopposed)


South Carolina
Alvin Greene (D) vs. Jim DeMint (R)


South Dakota
John Thune (R-unopposed)


Utah
Sam Granato (D) vs. Mike Lee (R)


Source: DSCC




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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 03:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. Nate Silver: New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats
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impik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. This is scary. Nate is good. I'm getting nervous.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. This is likely a worse-case scenario.
Still, Dems keep the majority.

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seattleblue Donating Member (437 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Not a worse-case scenario.
Nate's worst case is Dems losing 10 or more seats. He says there is a 20% chance of that.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. That's not worse-case, that's
an anything could happen scenario. There are 17 Democratic seats in the mix, including three are unopposed and two that are solid wins.

Five safe

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D-unopposed)
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand
New York: (D) and Chuck Schumer (D)
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D-unopposed)
Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D-unopposed)

To lose 10 seats would mean a win in only two of the following contest.

1) Arkansas: Senator Blanche Lincoln
2) California: Barbara Boxer
3) Colorado: Michael Bennet
4) Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal
5) Delaware: Chris Coons
6) Illinois: Alexi Giannoulias
7) Indiana: Brad Ellsworth
8) Nevada: Harry Reid
9) North Dakota: Tracy Potter
10)Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak
11)Washington: Patty Murray
12)Wisconsin: Russ Feingold

Anything is possible, that's highly unlikely.





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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. This looks bad.
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bigwillq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
2. Good info.
Thanks for posting. K and R
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 03:54 PM
Response to Original message
3. you're pretty optimistic--I like that. But I'm not so sure about Delaware or Colorado
A new poll out in CO by Reuters today had Bennet down by 9. The polls in PA now that the primary has faded show the GOP back in the lead. Hopefully we will keep them but it's going to be a tough election cycle.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Yeah, it's from
the campaign of Robert Menendez, who was supposed to lose to the Tom Kean Jr., son of a popular Republican governor.

Bennet could pull it off. I believe Sestak can pull it off.


There is time to catch up, and Democrats definitely need to GOTV.




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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 04:28 PM
Response to Original message
5. I Think It's Possible We Could Pick Off R Seats In KY, LA, MO, NH, NC, OH
Edited on Wed Aug-25-10 04:30 PM by Beetwasher
and FL if Christ caucusses with Dems or if Meek has a stellar campaign. And who knows what the hell is going to happen in AK now. Granted, lot's of long shots in there, but I think we've got shots if we wage some great campaigns and have some turns of fortune.

On the other hand we'll lose Ark and ND for sure and will have some tough races in CA, CO, DE, IL, IN, NV, PA and WI.

It's way too early to really trust the polls, things are way too fluid right now and campaigns have hardly begun to be rolled out.
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 05:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. In addition, it will be difficult for Republicans to gang up on just a few seats
when they have to worry about other campaigns that need their focus.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #5
12. Yes, those are
the tough Deomcratic races: CA, CO, DE, IL, IN, NV, PA and WI.

Any losses in the above group could be offset with gains in KY, LA, MO, NH, NC or OH.


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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 09:24 PM
Response to Original message
13. OMG - John McCain is NOT unopposed! This pisses me off to no end!
There were 4 Dems running in the primary. We now have a winner - Rodney Glassman and he is young, energetic and ready to kick McCain's booty.

And the DSCC wonders why they get no money from me.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-25-10 09:34 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Oops. The site has been updated.
In Arizona, John McCain is running for a fifth term in the Senate following his failed presidential bid. Democrat Rodney Glassman will challenge McCain in the fall. Glassman is a Tucson City Councilman and Judge Advocate General officer in the U.S. Air Force Reserves. We must work hard in every state and make every effort to win in Arizona in 2010.



The only Senator now listed as unopposed in Thune in SD.

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