Nouriel Roubini: Double-Dip Recession Odds Now Greater Than 40%, GDP To Be 'Pathetically Lousy'

[onehandle]

The famed economist set off waves yesterday when he tweeted: "Q3 GDP growth very likely to be below 1 percent; and likely to be closer to 0% than to a pathetically lousy 1 percent. So double dip risk is now > 40 percent."

Roubini, who is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, called into CNBC this morning to explain his statement.

The chances of a double-dip recession in the U.S. are now above 40 percent and second-quarter GDP growth will be revised down to an annual rate of 1.2 percent from the Commerce Department's July reading of 2.4 percent, Roubini said.

Based on the current data, third quarter growth will be well below one percent with growth closer to zero percent in the second half of 2010, he noted. Any recent improvements in the economy have come as a result of inventory adjustments rather than growth in final sales, Roubini added.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/26/roubini_n_695536.html

[tridim]

1. Self-fulfilling prophecies tend to work..

Especially with something as delicate as the economy Bush left us.

I don't fault these people for writing their stories (for money), but at some point they need to start thinking about solutions instead of 24/7 doom and gloom.

[scheming daemons]

2. The guy got one prediction right in 20 years, and he's living off of that

Doesn't make a difference that he's been wrong about almost everything else he has said over the years.


He predicted the 2008 housing bubble collapse, so he gets a pass on everything now.



Chance of double dip recession is above 40%? That's just another way of saying it's 50-50... or, more directly... "it might happen, and it might not. Either way, my prediction is correct."

[xchrom]

3. recommend

[Parker CA]

4. So odds against a double-dip are roughly 60%. I'll go with that number. nt.