AK-SEN POLL: Miller 47, McAdams 39. Miller 38, Murkowski 34, McAdams 22.

[jefferson_dem]

Sunday, August 29, 2010
The Alaska Senate Race

Joe Miller's surprise victory in the Alaska Republican Senate primary has given Democrats at least a marginal opportunity for a pick up this fall, although that will fade if Lisa Murkowski stays in the race for the general as the Libertarian candidate.

Miller leads Scott McAdams 47-39. McAdams is counteracting several of the trends causing Democrats trouble across the country this year. He's running even with independents at 42% and he's benefiting from a more unified party, getting 81% of the Democratic vote while just 73% of Republicans are committed to Miller. In most states that equation would be enough for the lead but in Alaska, where there's an 18 point Republican party identification advantage, it leaves McAdams running behind.

The reason for the closeness of the race is Miller's unpopularity. 52% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of while only 36% see him positively. Democrats (84%) are almost universal in their dislike of him and independents array strongly against him as well by a 54/32 margin. His poll numbers within his own party are positive but somewhat tepid at 57/32. Miller is the latest in a long line of candidates unpopular with the general electorate that Republican primary voters have nominated this year joining Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, and Ken Buck. But this political climate may just be GOP friendly enough that all those folks get through in the fall anyway.

In a three way contest with Murkowski running as the Libertarian candidate Miller leads but with only 38% to 34% for Murkowski and 22% for McAdams. Democrats have been hopeful that Murkowski will run on the assumption she would split the Republican vote but her supporters actually go 47-23 for McAdams in a two way contest with Miller.

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http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/alaska-senate-race.html

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. Oddly, those numbers suggest a two-person race is better for McAdams

In a two-way race McAdam is 8 points down.

hat is a swing of 4% of the electorate, which isn't an impossibility.

In a three way race McAdam is more than 12% short of the 34% needed to win even in the perfect vote-split scenario.

Put another way, splitting the Republican vote is no use if the Republican vote is over 66%.