This is good ..right? Data shows jobless claims drop, retail sales rise

[Peacetrain]

If the break even point in unemployment claims is 425,000 ... this is good news.. we are starting to pull up there.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100902/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

WASHINGTON – A weak economy got a little lift Thursday with new data suggesting companies aren't pursuing mass layoffs and stores are a little busier.

New applications for unemployment benefits declined for a second straight week after rising in the previous three. Retailers reported surprisingly strong sales in August. And more people signed contracts to buy homes.

Economists were mildly encouraged by the news, which followed several downbeat reports on housing and weaker economic growth last week. But few saw signs that the economy is gaining momentum.

"It's encouraging that we're not seeing further deterioration as we have in recent months," said Julia Coronado, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. "But we're not turning around and moving in the direction of stronger growth."

New claims for unemployment aid fell last week by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 472,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure, fell by 2,500 to 485,500, its first decrease after four straight increases.

[bigdarryl]

1. HELL YEAH!!!!

[Peacetrain]

6. Oh yeah!

[uponit7771]

2. I'd like to see a trend of this, companies sitting on cash usually want to spend it though and

...hopefully they have their investment hats on correctly this time

[Peacetrain]

5. Me too... at some point they are going to have to start investing

in jobs.. if they want to stay profitable

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Yes, this is good news

[Peacetrain]

4. That is what I thought when I read that article..

We are approaching that break even point..:thumbsup:

[fasttense]

7. What do you mean by break even point?

[Peacetrain]

9. There is a point in unemployment claims

and the numbers thrown out are usually 400,000 to 450,000 that is between job growth and job loss..

this is from 2009 when we started to pull out then and unemployment claims were in the 500,000 vs the 700,000 at the end of 2008...and what it says is that when we reach those 400,000 type numbers (i picked 425,000 just to split the difference) that that would be the light at the end of the tunnel

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-jobs-market-continues-to/264671

[fasttense]

13. Thanks for the link, do you have another?

The link is interesting reading and the poster mentions the break even point but he doesn't describe how he got it. I was wondering if you knew how that number is calculated?

[Peacetrain]

15. That I don't know..

Sorry..

[FBaggins]

17. It isn't so much "calculated" as based on experience.

Historically, consistent numbers over 400k tend to be associated with overall job declines. Numbers around 350k tend to represent a stable environment... while numbers under 300k represent decent job growth (with lower numbers representing more robust growth).

It isn't a hard and fast rule, because churning in the job market can result in high layoff numbers, but also comparatively higher numbers of new jobs... so you can see some net new jobs even with a 400k+ number.

[earthside]

8. Unfortunately ... no.

Unemployment is stagnant ... what few new jobs that have been created don't even match the increase in population.

And, the wages and benefits for the new jobs are substantially less than the old jobs they are replacing.

Furthermore, the increase in retail sales came at the cost of people saving less, meaning that folks took money out of their savings to pay for necessities.

Let's face it ... we are in the doldrums.

All the information for the statements above came from news posts I have seen here on DU in the past couple of days.

[Peacetrain]

10. I just put this in another response earthside

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-jobs-market-continues-to/264671


we look to be finally gaining some ground here

[Better Today]

19. You find 10K private sector job cuts as gaining ground? What dreamworld do you live in?

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSEAP10340020100901

[phleshdef]

21. Apparently the dreamworld where we were losing a million jobs a month and no longer are.

[quiller4]

11. We don't have a net increase in job market--number of retireees exceeds new entrants.

Remember the early boomers are starting to retire.

[FBaggins]

12. Of course it's good news.

It's too late to have much impact on the election... but it's certainly better than what it could have been

[Peacetrain]

14. Maybe if it continues.. the media cannot ignore it

I think people just need to feel things are headed in the right direction

[FBaggins]

16. It certainly wouldn't hurt

but no... good economic news usually needs to come by the end of the second quarter for it to have much of an impact on a Fall election.

It would take a whopping big surprise number to help much at this point.

[Peacetrain]

18. Fingers crossed..

You are probably right..

[emulatorloo]

22. Most voters don't start thinking about an election until after Labor Day.

[Peacetrain]

23. From your lips.....

:)

[FBaggins]

24. Sure... but most people take many months of good news

before they "feel" like things are getting better.

It isn't as if they wake up on Labor Day morning and review the prior week's data to decide how the economy is doing. People may not pay much attention to politics prior to that point (a claim with which I disagree), but they certainly pay attention to their financial well being all year round.

[BootinUp]

20. We really needed a boost

thank the gods....

[ibegurpard]

25. certainly hope so

[grantcart]

26. Retail rates going up is surprising.

This comes as car manufacturers no longer are providing any incentives for purchases and that is a corner.

[golfguru]

29. Things wear out

people can not hold off buying for ever.

But the retail sales are on a very low plateau right now.
SO is consumer confidence. It will be a long recession.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

32. Also Back to School....

For many retailers, this is their second-busiest time of year.

[noamnety]

27. locally: 18,771 applications for 71 positions

"“The number was really an eye-opener for us, and sadly, a sign of the times in our state,” said Diane Blain, district spokeswoman.

Michael Reeber, assistant superintendent of human resources, said he’s never seen “anything like this” in 35 years of reviewing job applications.

http://www.macombdaily.com/articles/2010/08/18/news/doc4c6b33894468a450301163.txt

[FrenchieCat]

28. Nope, no good.

Folks have their fingers crossed wanting this country to fail,
and anything that might show otherwise has to be ignored...because
we couldn't have the confidence of the American people increase...
considering that this is a big part of what makes the economy strive;
perception based on positive news.

[Exilednight]

31. Interesting words you chose .............

"considering that this is a big part of what makes the economy strive;perception based on positive news."

Perception? Perception is based on reality.

And here's reality:

The number of jobs created is not out-pacing the number of people entering the job force.

The largest sector hiring? Anything that has the word temporary in front of it. I work for a small company (roughly around 35 employees). This past month we eliminated one full time upper management position and replaced it with three temporary employees. In our warehouse we lost one person to another employer and replaced that person with five temporary workers. The one person we did hire full time quit shortly thereafter since he was making more money off of unemployment. We have had a pay freeze for the past two years, and bonuses for everyone except the CEO and our two VPs whose bonuses are based on increased profit, have also been suspended. Retail prices have gradually increased, but peoples paychecks have continued to stay the same. Essentially, they are trying to by the same with less.

I would like to say this is isolated to my job, but it's not. This is the story across the entire east coast and into the mid-west. Sure, you will find pockets where things are better, and pockets where things are much worse, but this is the average.

Reality shapes perception. The reality for many is not very good bordering on disastrous.

[eridani]

30. In the sense that treading water is better than drowning

The problem is what the "new normal" is turning out to be.

[Phx_Dem]

33. Indeed it is. Unemployment rose because of the census jobs that went away.

Or, so said some economist on POTUS XM.

[dkf]

34. Still? I thought that was done some time ago.