PPP: How the "enthusiasm gap" is hurting the Dems in key races

[WI_DEM]

We hear about the enthusiasm gap all the time, usually in pretty abstract terms. Here it is in black and white: in 10 key races for Senate and Governor in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri it's costing Democratic candidates (or Charlie Crist) an average of 7 points on the margin.

If the folks planning to turn out this year matched the 2008 electorate:

-Alex Sink running for Governor in Florida and Alexi Giannoulias running for the Senate in Illinois would have double digit leads.

-Elaine Marshall running for Senate in North Carolina and Pat Quinn running for Governor in Illinois would have small leads instead of trailing.

-Ted Strickland running for Governor in Ohio, Lee Fisher running for Senate in Ohio, Joe Sestak running for Senate in Pennsylvania, and Robin Carnahan running for Senate in Missouri would all be within three points rather than trailing by 7-10 as they do now.

This year isn't getting away from the Democrats because voters are moving toward the Republicans en masse. But the enthusiasm gap is turning races that would otherwise be lean Democratic into toss ups, turning toss ups into leaning Republican, and turning leaning Republican into solid Republican.

Here's the full data on all those races:

Race
Most Recent Poll
2010 Electorate
Most Recent Poll w/2008 Electorate
2008 Result
Enthusiasm Gap Impact

Ohio Governor
R+10
McCain +3
R+3
Obama +4
R+7

Ohio Senate
R+7
McCain +3
R+2
Obama +4
R+5

NC Senate
R+5
McCain +9
D+1
Obama +1
R+6

Florida Governor
D+7
McCain +3
D+12
Obama +3
R+5

Florida Senate
R+8
McCain +3
R+4
Obama +3
R+4

Penn Gov
R+13
McCain +1
R+6
Obama +10
R+7

Penn Sen
R+9
McCain +1
Tied
Obama +10
R+9

Illinois Governor
R+9
Obama +9
D+1
Obama +25
R+10

Illinois Senate
D+2
Obama +9
D+13
Obama +25
R+11

Missouri Senate
R+7
McCain +7
R+1
Tied
R+6



Posted by Tom Jensen at 2:49 PM 12 comments

[OHdem10]

1. In most of those states including Fla, there are more registered

Democrats than Republicans. Theoretically, Democrats could
win the up coming elections walking away. Long ago, many
Democrats just stopped voting. The Party left them.
Add this to the dismayed Democrats who are apparently
staying home and the Democratic Party has a long term problem.