Gallup: Parties Tied at 46% on Generic Ballot

[flpoljunkie]

(Republicans still hold huge lead on enthusiasm--25%. Our president has his work cut out for him. Yes, he can!)

September 7, 2010
Parties Tied at 46% in Generic Ballot

Latest weekly update shows more competitive contest
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans and Democrats are tied at 46% among registered voters in Gallup's weekly tracking of congressional voting preferences, marking a shift after five consecutive weeks in which the Republicans held the advantage.

These results are based on aggregated data from more than 1,650 registered voters surveyed Aug. 30-Sept. 5 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. The results reflect more competitive voting intentions than has been the case recently. Republicans' leads over Democrats among registered voters in three of the previous four weeks were the highest Gallup has measured for this midterm election campaign, and higher than any GOP advantage Gallup has measured in a midterm election year since 1942.

Last week marked the return of President Barack Obama from his 10-day vacation, and included his national address to announce the official end of combat operations in Iraq. The president's three-day job approval rating rose to 47% for Aug. 29-31 -- a level it had reached only once since mid-July. Last week also brought media commentary in the aftermath of conservative talk-show host Glenn Beck's massive rally in Washington, D.C. It is not clear if these or other factors affected Americans' voting preferences as measured by the generic ballot.

Whether the 2010 race has shifted more permanently to a more competitive positioning will be apparent in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, even the current tie in the generic ballot among registered voters points to a better year for Republicans than for Democrats, given the GOP's usual advantage in voter turnout in midterm elections.

Bottom Line

The latest Gallup update on 2010 voting preferences marks the first time in over a month at which Republicans have not held an advantage among registered voters on Gallup's weekly generic ballot update. This shift, coupled with the fact that Democrats led on the measure earlier in the summer, shows that voter sentiments are not immune to change. Hoping to prove this, Democrats from the president on down are gearing up to maximize their chances of keeping party control of the House, just as voter attention to the campaign is increasing after the Labor Day weekend.

more...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

[book_worm]

1. Will the press begin reporting on a swing back to the Dems? after all those stories about how

the GOP had the biggest lead in Gallup history? I doubt it.

[sharp_stick]

5. I'm sure they will

it will be up on the ABC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN front pages any second now....... OK maybe they're all in meetings, any second now.....

This won't be reported at all, they'll just continue with the idiotic narrative that they've been running with all year. The noise outlets know what makes ratings and unfortunately ratings count in the news business now as much as they do in the entertainment business. They've become one and the same.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. They've got their marching orders from RNC/FOX/Tea Party: Bad News (for Dems) ONLY!!!

:puke:

[bushisanidiot]

2. Yep! After Beck's Thousand White Man March on Washington

and President Obama calling out the party of NOPE yesterday, the republicons are gonna start sinking like a rock!

[Kolesar]

13. Kind of like when bush* would speak, and his poll numbers would plummet

DUers called it "the piehole effect".

[golfguru]

17. Thank you

for a LOL.

[Warren Stupidity]

3. weird.

The swings are odd indeed.

[flpoljunkie]

6. Now, all we need to do is work on the 'enthusiasm' gap!

I think our president started making the case yesterday, but he has his work cut out for him. I'd like to think he can do get out the base and get the young people out to vote in November.

[Pirate Smile]

4. That damn "10 point Republican lead" was everywhere. Do you think any of those jackasses are going

to post this one everywhere now? Hell no. They'll pick the worst they can find from ABC/WP or NBC/WJ and flog that instead.

Oh, well. Enough of that. It's Good News!

[peekaloo]

30. Now it's a 9 point lead (as of this a.m.)

per 'The Toady Show' which I turned off before they trotted out Upchuck Todd.

[DrSteveB]

7. the media has done a terrible job regarding this gallup poll

They cherry-picked only one day...in which Republicans took a 10 point lead, ignoring that this graph is crazy as hell and leads change hands often.

[still_one]

8. Gee, that isn't the talking point the MSM wants /nt

[Mass]

10. This shows clearly what to do with these polls. Same thing than last week.

[emulatorloo]

11. Can you get me a link to that story?

gonna need to use this elsewhere. I assume it is somewhere on the Gallup site?

THANKS!

[flpoljunkie]

18. Sorry, I goofed! Have added it in OP and below.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

[emulatorloo]

22. THANKS!!!!

[rocktivity]

12. Well, surprise surprise surprise!

"Get thee beyond me, polls!



Unclean! UNCLEAN!!!"

:eyes:
rocktivity

[craigmatic]

14. Maybe they peaked too soon and now we're starting a comeback.

[KingFlorez]

15. Gallup shifted again

Things are very fluid at this stage. Closing the enthusiasm gap is vital, our people have to get to the polls. I think enthusiasm is low, but the surprise will be that Democrats show up anyway.

[Robbins]

16. Well

It has gone from 10 point lead for GOP to being tied.Remember all the doom and gloom based on that.This all says others In the last
day which mirror gallup may be from when Obama was In his early 40's In approl not 46 to 50 He Is now.

[flpoljunkie]

19. I added Gallup's 'Bottom Line' to OP and below. It offers us hope!

Bottom Line

The latest Gallup update on 2010 voting preferences marks the first time in over a month at which Republicans have not held an advantage among registered voters on Gallup's weekly generic ballot update. This shift, coupled with the fact that Democrats led on the measure earlier in the summer, shows that voter sentiments are not immune to change. Hoping to prove this, Democrats from the president on down are gearing up to maximize their chances of keeping party control of the House, just as voter attention to the campaign is increasing after the Labor Day weekend.

[backscatter712]

20. I think the Dems are starting to show their cards now.

Think about it strategy-wise - you don't want to fire off your best weapons too early. So what the Dems were doing in August was waiting. Doing a little defense, that clearly was losing ground, but mostly waiting until the right time to fire off the big guns.

Now, the advertising campaigns are gonna kick into high gear, with a lot of "Show the world the Teapublicans are insane" ads ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUKGym_iVYI ) and some good new policy initiatives are being announced, like the transportation infrastructure bill, for example. And President Obama's starting to go into campaign mode, and he's now delivering some lively speeches.

Maybe that's why it was taking so long for President Obama to nominate Elizabeth Warren to head the CFPB - he wanted to do it closer to the election so it's fresh in the minds of voters, partially to kick up those poll numbers, but also to dare the Rethugs and wavering DINOs to fight against a nominee that's vastly popular with the public.

So stay tuned. If the strategy's what I think it is, the Dems are gonna start throwing a lot more punches.

[Politicalboi]

21. I just don't understand why it's even this close

Don't these idiots know who brought this country down? More exposure is the best way to help bring more to the Dem party. I have another brother who voted for Obama, but is not happy with how things are going. I asked him how he felt about Citizens United, and he didn't even know what that was. We are suppose to be the generation of information, but for some reason it isn't getting out there.

[Marsala]

23. That Gallup poll is crap

It's been unstable all year, bouncing all over the place.

[discopants]

26. Obama approval has trended 42% to 50%

on a pretty steady back and forth for a year. Whatever crappy story gets the headlines for the week pulls him down... you know, like being a muslim or killing grandma.

[jenmito]

24. I JUST heard that on Ed's show from Joan Walsh. Strange how I haven't heard this at ALL today from

ANYONE in the "liberal" media. :eyes:

[Phx_Dem]

25. This is no different from the other polls, because

it's based on "registered voters" not "likely voters." In the other polls, the match up between "registered voters" was also tied. It was "likely voters" that gave GOP the lead.

The issue is not which party voters prefer, the issue is which party's voters will show up to vote.

[FBaggins]

27. It still represents a significant shift

When compared against the prior weeks o the same poll with the same methodology.

[Phx_Dem]

32. Okay then. I'm all about the good news!

:7

[David Zephyr]

28. K&R.

Thanks for this report.

[stevietheman]

29. The way I read it -- Democrats do better when voters are paying attention

The reality in elections is that voters don't really start caring about who they're voting for until September at the earliest.

Notice the extreme difference between Republicans and Democrats in the last poll, and now, here in September, they're even. We could even see Democrats pull ahead of Republicans again soon.

Democrats actually have a lot to cheer about in this President and Congress, and the work they've done. It's just that there needs to be a lot more dwelling on the positive than on the negative, that is, where progressives haven't gotten all we wanted.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

31. These polls have been remarkably volatile this year.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - this year's election is going to defy all logic and conventional wisdom. The normal rules simply aren't going to apply, and I think the evidence is in the erratic polling.

[high density]

33. Boy, last week I recall it was OMFG WORST EVAR FOR THE DEMZ!!!!!

What a joke.

[Beetwasher]

34. That Is Quite A Stunning Turnaround

n/t