WE will gain seats in november

[mgcgulfcoast]

I predict we will pick up 5 house seats and 2 senate seats. in alaska the reps are fighting, they nominated a nutbag in nevada, and they will nominate a nutbag in delaware. dont be downcast.

[mgcgulfcoast]

1. florida will be another pick up

[scheming daemons]

2. Sorry...not THAT optimistic.... though I think we hold both chambers...

...

[mgcgulfcoast]

6. people arent that dumb

they wont vote for reps in november.

[RaleighNCDUer]

8. I agree.

Thee will be no bloodbath, just a little blood letting. The teabaggers and republicans are tearing themselves apart and that will limit their gains.

[racaulk]

3. We can also likely lose AR, IN, DE, and ND in the Senate.

I wish I could share your optimism, but I think we will be at a net loss on seats in both houses, though not by as much as the M$M would have us believe.

The majorities will still be ours, though. :-)

[mgcgulfcoast]

9. reps will nominate a nutbag in DE

that seat is safe.

[Alcibiades]

25. I have a hard time believing Castle will lose

I've followed his career a long time, since when I lived on the Easter Shore of MD in the 1990's, back when he first won his House seat. While he's too moderate to be a success in the national GOP, he seems suited to Delaware.

He's 12-0 in statewide races in DE, and had served five terms in the General Assembly before that, and has been their longest-serving House Rep. I have not seen the polls, but I'd be shocked if the Tea Party candidate won, even if the election were only held downstate.

[mgcgulfcoast]

27. dont underestimate rep stupidity.

[Upton]

10. Murray and Boxer are in trouble too.

if those two lose, it will be the culmination of a terrible night in the loss of the Senate

[mgcgulfcoast]

12. they will win easilly. 10+

[Upton]

14. Last couple polls here in Washington state

have Murray trailing Rossi. If she wins, it'll be close..

[mgcgulfcoast]

18. then work harder.

[truebrit71]

17. Boxer will not lose. Take that to the bank.

Not a chance Fiorina wins. Not a chance in hell.

[racaulk]

28. Yep, the WA race will definitely be a nail biter.

I'm trying to remain hopeful that Murray will pull ahead in the coming weeks though. I would ***love*** to see another female Democrat defeat Dino Rossi by the narrowest of margins in a statewide contest. I'm keeing my fingers crossed for you guys. :hi:

I'm feeling better about Boxer's chances over Fiorina though. However, as a Democratic incumbent in California, the race shouldn't even be as close as it is.

[Upton]

4. Wishful thinking..

unless something odd happens, the House is gone. And Nate says today there's a 1 in 4 chance of losing the Senate..

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/07/republicans-have-one-in-four-chance-to-claim-senate-majority-model-shows/

[zipplewrath]

15. Well that's a tad backwards

That basically says that the democrats have an 75% chance to hang onto the Senate.
Nate doesn't seem to have decided on the House races. And even in the senate it is still heavily dependent upon primaries yet to be completed.

[Upton]

19. Then lets go with Sabato..

he currently forecasts a loss of 47 House seats..

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010090201/

And he was pretty much right on the money in '06..

http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/newsRelease.php?id=1031

And '08..

http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/newsRelease.php?id=6893

[zipplewrath]

At the most

He suggests 47 at the most. Alot of "toss ups" have to go their way.

[FBaggins]

37. Nope. That's not his "at the most" prediction

That's his "if the election were held today" number... and he says "If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains"

[mgcgulfcoast]

42. he will be wrong

[FBaggins]

46. And that would obviously be great.

But you're basing it on no more than the fact that you want it to be true.

Not much to go on there - but I'll certainly keep my fingers crossed

[mgcgulfcoast]

32. that 2008 one was made nov 1st

this is sept 8th. are we just going to sit around and do nothing because sabato and silver say so?

[Upton]

33. Proclaiming something does not make it so..

we're not going to "gain seats"..and Boxer and Murray aren't going to win by "10%+". Entertaining such ridiculous notions is for those who have their heads buried deep in the sand.

[mgcgulfcoast]

16. i dont buy it

does nate silver decide if we get off our rear ends and work in november?

[Upton]

22. So..now it's time to diss Nate Silver, huh?

whatever..can't say as I'm surprised seeing as how you seem completely out of touch with reality.

[mgcgulfcoast]

24. all we have to do is get out and vote

and work hard. does nate silver make you decide to vote or work your butt off?

[KingFlorez]

29. How was that a diss?

The Democrats can salvage things based on turnout. Most forecast, including Silver's rely on the prediction that Democrats won't turn out.

[FBaggins]

47. And they haven't been turning out.

There have been a number of opportunities to vote already (priimaries) and our turnout has been the worst in many decades.

Your prediction is based on a hope that this will somehow change... without any notion of why it will change. You assume that people who don't currently care will wake up one morning and decide that they care.

The things that drive turnout are largely baked in at this point. There are "boots on the ground" turnout efforts that can play a role in individual races, but the big picture turnout issues don't change much in eight weeks. The economy doesn't swing that quickly, "right/wrong direction" impressions don't fluctuate much in that short a time, liberals' impression of whether or not the HCR legislation actually constitutes HCR isn't going to change.

But to be clearer, I've corrected you on this more than once. You keep saying that most of the predictions already include the enthusiasm gap. That isn't so. Most of the predictions that you read (Silver/Cook/Sabato/etc) have made it pretty clear that their predictions will get worse as Nov approaches if the gap remains unchanged.

[KingFlorez]

50. Whatever

We'll see what happens on election day, but I'm not going to get into some debate about it with you.

[FBaggins]

51. Why does it need to be a "debate"?

If you said that you thought your favorite football team was going to have a good season because they had just signed a star QB, you wouldn't need to "debate" when someone else pointed out that the signing had not occured.

[MBS]

5. I also think it's going to be better than the talking heads have predicted.

And finally Dems, from Obama on down, are getting energized. With NYT columnist Bob Herbert, I'm puzzled why it's taken 1 1/2 years to get it together, but still. . it will help.

[rasputin1952]

59. They have created this "crisis"...

it is their job, it's how they "sell" themselves.

It is not as bad as all of these outlets are saying. I'm min NE a seriously Red State, and R's are sick of the crap from Boehner and McConnell...many of them are sitting this one out...another reason why I cannot get in line w/what the media is pushing.

If we vote as D's, there will be no problem and I believe we'll p/u seats. The only way the R's win, is when we sit out the election because for some ridiculous reason we think we "should".

[Hawkowl]

7. Even 1 seat each house

Even a single Senate seat and a single additional House seat would be a major victory. It would also intensify the turmoil in the rethuglican party amongst the teabagging, Beck brownshirts.

I am optimistic for the dems in November. I'd be downright giddy if electronic voting machines had been outlawed.

[mgcgulfcoast]

11. i share your optimism

[AndyA]

13. I hope you're right.

I find it very difficult to believe that people have forgotten who was in charge before the recession.

That same party, the Republicons has offered NOTHING to help the country get back on its feet again, except more tax cuts which VERY OBVIOUSLY DON'T WORK, or we wouldn't be in this mess right now. And, the GOP has tried to block or delay every single thing the Democrats have attempted to do.

I think most people want to move forward, and I think they can see which party is trying to do that, and which party is not.

[Beetwasher]

20. Possible, But Highly Unlikely

I think it's more likely that our losses will be contained and minimal compared to the doom and gloomers.

But yes, there is a possibility we could gain seats and I like your optimism!

[Ter]

36. I agree

My martial arts teacher told me to always be confidant, but NEVER over-confident.

Confidence: We will have a net loss of just two Senate seats, and just a few House seats. I can defeat that opponent who's bigger than me.

Over-confidence: We will pick up seats. I can take Mike Tyson or Bruce Lee in their primes without breaking a sweat.

[AtomicKitten]

21. Okay. nt

[DFLforever]

23. I like your attitude.

:thumbsup:

[DrDan]

26. what you been smokin' this afternoon . . . any to share?

[Phx_Dem]

30. From your lips to God's ears. n/t

[KingFlorez]

31. There are at least four House seats we can pick up

And there are maybe 1-2 Senate seats that could go blue depending on what happens.

[rocktivity]

34. What we're seeing is the same kind of psychological operation

that ramrodded us into Bush's Gulf wars--a flood of stories in the corporate media insisting that the GOP takeover of Congress is so inevitable Dem voters might have well stay home and especially not ask any questions.

Case in point: The GOP taking a 10-point generic lead in a Gallup poll was front page news, the story of both parties tying in the same poll a week later was not.



:headbang:
rocktivity

[mgcgulfcoast]

40. i agree

[Ter]

35. I don't think anyone is dumb enough to believe this

If you are, wake up and smell the coffee. The losses may not be bad at all, but it is CERTAIN there will be losses in the House and Senate. Did you predict gains in '94 too?

[Beetwasher]

39. Well, I Wouldn't Say Losses Are A Certainty, There Is A Chance For A Net Gain

However at this point in time, that scenario is highly unlikely. But losses are NOT a certainty.

That being said, I happen to like this posters optimism and there's no need for you to give him a beat down.

[Ter]

53. I just want him to know I lived through '94

Not saying it will be like that, but you have to to be realistic. There were people then too who predicted gains. The House losing seats is more of a certainty, the Senate not as bad probably.

[craigmatic]

38. It's more like 3 house seats (Castle's, that repub in HI, and the Asian repub in New Orleans).

In the senate we'll get Obama's seat, maybe Biden's if the tea party wins the primary and the CT seat. I also think Reid will keep his job.

[Ramulux]

41. We need to be realistic

Gaining seats is not going to happen and I dont mean to sound too pessimistic. I think we will do much better than everyone expects and things will get increasingly better as we get closer to the election but gaining seats is pretty much impossible. Everyone on this website needs to understand that we are in deep trouble and all of us are going to have to take time out of our schedules and volunteer as much as possible. The only way to avoid a bloodbath is for all of us to GOTV in a big way.

[impik]

43. That's a nice fantasy....but i always prefer optimism, so yea, why not.

[quaker bill]

44. The coming narritive

You can already hear them edging toward it on the MSM: "how the radical tea party candidates caused the Republican party to lose what should have been an easy election".

There have been various oblique suggestions that this will be the next focus, just a sentence or two here or there in the stream of conciousness dialog. This is how it always starts. As the Dems ramp up the campaign, the poll numbers will shift adding momentum to this line of thought. They have, but soon will start regularly featuring the diatribes they already have on tape against Social Security and Medicare, detailing communist and anti-semetic conspiracy theories, for abolishing the Fed, EPA, Department of Education, IRS, and the wacky stuff about masturbation being adultery, and so much more. There is so much strong, controversial, truly colorful, and insane material in the bank that they will have to run it, for ratings sake alone. This is the story line they need to justify airing it repeatedly, so the story line will be created.

What the story line will not be is how the Dems are sane and should be elected, there is no ratings in this. The story line will be the insanity of the tea party types and how they need to be and are being rejected, same difference, but more controversy and far better ratings.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

45. It's more likely in the Senate. Yesterday the Repukes apparently wrote off CO.

In DE, they thought they had a shoe-in with Castle, but are now dealing with the teabagger lady running who could siphon off votes. I feel much better about Reid and Boxer. And regardless of what happens in Florida, either Crist or Meek would be much better for Dems than Rubio.

Again, I'm just not buying into the "Democrats are Doomed" meme that everyone is pushing.

However, we all need to get our asses out and VOTE and help others vote as well!

[FBaggins]

48. Republicans wrote off CO yesterday?

Can you link to that? Silver's latest prediction showed a 75% chance of the seat going R... and Bennett feels that's it's necessary to be the first voice opposing the President's tax plan... and somehow the republicans have written the state off?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

49. The governors race, not the Senate. Sorry about that. n/t

[opihimoimoi]

52. The Poor Pubs....confused, hapless, hopeless....look at their candidates and their

extreme positions...

Collectively, they say the most STOOPID things....

Angle and her headless bodies in the desert

Vitter...I do not cheat on the wife wearing diapers

etc

Their extremeness has aroused the DEMs into a panick and will come out to STOMP the idea of more rookie Pubs in charge...

[robcon]

54. Ridiculous OP.

We'll lose 25+ seats in the House and a few in the Senate.

Look at the polls.

[mgcgulfcoast]

55. so dont bother voting?

i dont care about polls.

[truebrit71]

56. Right?

..what a fucking useless post...

[rasputin1952]

58. Polls arenotoriously innacurate...the only polls that count are on election day...

when we show up at them.

The R's have nothing to offer, how can they win on that? One way...D's don't show up. Self fulfilling prophecies are 100% avoidable if people act.

[AspenRose]

64. That should be plastered everywhere

"The only polls that count are on election day, when we show up at them."

Turnout/GOTV is what is going to make or break this election.

[rasputin1952]

57. I've said we will pick up seats a month and a half ago...

the election season is jut firing up, and still, the R's have nothing to offer except loonies and obfuscation. They have nothing else.

In Ohio, PO took on Boehner in front of a warm crowd that showed support...the media skipped over it. That showed me that all of this garbage about losing seats in Nov is media hype. "Polls say...", who knows what they hell they represent anymore? We have been polled to death and they change every 5 minutes, and I think they are polling R districts if they are polling anyone at all.

All of this "GOP tsunami" is little more than a wavelet. No party ever took control of Congress when they didn't have something to offer the people. The only thing the R's have is a return to the 19th century.

[mgcgulfcoast]

63. i agree with you

[elleng]

65. 'loonies and obfuscation,' exactly!!!

'return to the 19th century!' bravo!

[JustAnotherGen]

60. I think Leonard Lance is out in Nj

You won't hear much about our Dem Candidate outside of this area - but I think Lance is gone. He's getting hammered for ADMITTING he didn't do enough to bring back the do-re-mi to NJ.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

61. The races are going to tighten in the weeks ahead, and if the GOP is denied control

of the House and Senate they will have a meltdown. The expectation of a Republican takeover has been pushed too hard. If they can't pull it off the Republican Party will have a civil war. It's going to be delightfully ugly.

[Awsi Dooger]

62. Literally millions to one odds against

Actually higher

[MadBadger]

66. Does this mean we will gain seats, but also lose a bunch?

Cuz if so, I agree. Otherwise I think your dead wrong.

[theothersnippywshrub]

67. Hope you post "I told you so" the night of the election. But, I expect you to post something else.

[NorthCarolina]

68. If true, and they are Blue Dog/DLC New Dem pickups...we "the people" still lose. eom

[Lindsey]

69. I live in CA and my sense is that boxer is very popular. n/t

[JNelson6563]

70. I think you are more right than those hoping for big losses.

That applies to talking heads and DUers.

Julie

[Styxiv]

71. wow

Not sure about pickups BUT I don't think they lose as many seats as the rethugs predict. History has shown the out of power side tends to pickup seats i nthe mid-terms so that's no big surprise. Also I notice now the media (and right wing radio) is picking up on PAlin as being their savor LOL. Showing the last five or so she has backed won their primaries. SO WHAT IWhile sure I'm sure it helped some on those who love her BUT I just think they hated the alternative and voted how THEY wanted not Sarah.

They (media) are harping on it yet the NEVER mention in August she was 0 for 5 on those she supported. Or the FACT that on the Maddow show she showed how 300 plus incumbents REMAINED in the run for their seats while (at that time) only seven lost their's and as I stated in another threat a little while back Bennitt of Utah doesn't count cause we use the outdated delegate way of picking the candidate and the polls here showed Bennett would clearly have won his bid with the PEOPLE of Utah but the radical right here ousted him.

which brings me to another point why is it always we are so impatient? I mean seriously. It took Bush EIGHT YEARS to tank this country yet some clowns think Obama show had had us out of it in just about two years or even less AND not to mention the president can only do so much, he can't wave a magic wand and the next day we see ten million dollars deposited in out bank accounts.

O and for the right that say it was only 6 years as the dems took control in 06 BIG FING DEAL it still takes the president to sign them into law and last time I checked he vetoed pretty much anything the Democrats sent to him. Much like EVEN if the Rethugs were to gain control it will still take OBAMA to sign anything into law.

Come on anyone out there who is on the fence or disgusted due to the change they thought was coming didn't THINK ABOUT IT!! Do you really want the alternative?

One last thing these rethugs out there it's so funny how they conveniently FORGOT who got us in this mess in the first place and yet they want THEM back in power?? WTF??? Go figure.